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Torino scale

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Torino scale

The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. The Palermo scale is a similar, but more complex scale. Near-Earth objects with a Torino scale of 1 are discovered several times a year, and may last a few weeks until they have a longer observation arc that eliminates any possibility of a collision. The only objects on the Torino scale that have ever ranked higher are asteroids 99942 Apophis, which had a rating of 4 for four days in late 2004, the highest recorded rating; (144898) 2004 VD17, with a historical rating of 2 from February to May 2006; and 2024 YR4, with a rating of 3 from January 27, 2025 to February 20, 2025.

Tables

· Definition › Calculation of ratings
0
0
Rating
0
Condition
mw- .mw- .mw- .mw- .mw- ⁠log10E + 1/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
Condition
OR
Condition
log10E < 0
1
1
Rating
1
Condition
⁠log10E + 1/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
⁠log10E − 2/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10p < −2
2
2
Rating
2
Condition
⁠log10E − 2/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10p < −2
3
3
Rating
3
Condition
log10p ≥ −2
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E < 2
Condition
AND
Condition
p < 0.99
4
4
Rating
4
Condition
log10p ≥ −2
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E ≥ 2
Condition
AND
Condition
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
Condition
AND
Condition
p < 0.99
5
5
Rating
5
Condition
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
p < 0.99  AND log10E < 5
6
6
Rating
6
Condition
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10p < −2
7
7
Rating
7
Condition
log10p ≥ −2
Condition
AND
Condition
+ log10E ≥ 5
Condition
AND
Condition
p < 0.99
8
8
Rating
8
Condition
p ≥ 0.99
Condition
AND
Condition
+ log10E ≥ 0
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E < 2
9
9
Rating
9
Condition
p ≥ 0.99
Condition
AND
Condition
+ log10E ≥ 2
Condition
AND
Condition
log10E < 5
10
10
Rating
10
Condition
p ≥ 0.99
Condition
AND
Condition
+ log10E ≥ 5
Rating
Condition
0
log10E + 1/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
OR
log10E < 0
1
⁠log10E + 1/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
AND
log10E ≥ 0
AND
⁠log10E − 2/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
AND
log10p < −2
2
⁠log10E − 2/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
AND
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
AND
log10p < −2
3
log10p ≥ −2
AND
log10E ≥ 0
AND
log10E < 2
AND
p < 0.99
4
log10p ≥ −2
AND
log10E ≥ 2
AND
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ < 0
AND
p < 0.99
5
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
AND
AND log10E < 5
6
⁠log10E − 5/3⁠ + ⁠log10p + 2/2⁠ ≥ 0
AND
log10p < −2
7
log10p ≥ −2
AND
+ log10E ≥ 5
AND
p < 0.99
8
p ≥ 0.99
AND
+ log10E ≥ 0
AND
log10E < 2
9
p ≥ 0.99
AND
+ log10E ≥ 2
AND
log10E < 5
10
p ≥ 0.99
AND
+ log10E ≥ 5
· Definition › Meaning of ratings
0
0
No hazard (white)
0
No hazard (white)
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
Normal (green)
Normal (green)
No hazard (white)
Normal (green)
1
1
No hazard (white)
1
No hazard (white)
A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show a collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0.
Meriting attention by astronomers (yellow)
Meriting attention by astronomers (yellow)
No hazard (white)
Meriting attention by astronomers (yellow)
2
2
No hazard (white)
2
No hazard (white)
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is still very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0.
3
3
No hazard (white)
3
No hazard (white)
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than 10 years away.
4
4
No hazard (white)
4
No hazard (white)
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than 10 years away.
Threatening (orange)
Threatening (orange)
No hazard (white)
Threatening (orange)
5
5
No hazard (white)
5
No hazard (white)
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Even though most objects of this level will be lowered to Level 0, critical attention by astronomers is still needed to determine conclusively whether a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than 10 years away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
6
6
No hazard (white)
6
No hazard (white)
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than 30 years away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. Some objects of this level may be lowered to Level 1 or 2, if the chances of collision decrease.
7
7
No hazard (white)
7
No hazard (white)
A very close encounter by a large object which, if occurring over the next 100 years, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether a collision will occur.
Certain collisions (red)
Certain collisions (red)
No hazard (white)
Certain collisions (red)
8
8
No hazard (white)
8
No hazard (white)
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once a century and once per 10,000 years.
9
9
No hazard (white)
9
No hazard (white)
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per few hundred thousand years.
10
10
No hazard (white)
10
No hazard (white)
A collision is certain, capable of causing global catastrophes that may threaten the future of civilization and life as we know it. Oceanic impacts can cause tsunamis hundreds, or even thousands, of feet high while land impacts can cause major firestorms. Such events occur on average once every few hundred thousand years. Larger objects of this size may strike less often.
No hazard (white)
0
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
Normal (green)
1
A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show a collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0.
Meriting attention by astronomers (yellow)
2
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is still very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0.
3
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than 10 years away.
4
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to reassignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than 10 years away.
Threatening (orange)
5
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Even though most objects of this level will be lowered to Level 0, critical attention by astronomers is still needed to determine conclusively whether a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than 10 years away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
6
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than 30 years away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. Some objects of this level may be lowered to Level 1 or 2, if the chances of collision decrease.
7
A very close encounter by a large object which, if occurring over the next 100 years, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether a collision will occur.
Certain collisions (red)
8
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once a century and once per 10,000 years.
9
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per few hundred thousand years.
10
A collision is certain, capable of causing global catastrophes that may threaten the future of civilization and life as we know it. Oceanic impacts can cause tsunamis hundreds, or even thousands, of feet high while land impacts can cause major firestorms. Such events occur on average once every few hundred thousand years. Larger objects of this size may strike less often.

References

  1. Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring
    https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4
  2. "Torino Impact Scale"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20070224184143/http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/torino.cfm
  3. Planetary and Space Science
    https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000P&SS...48..297B
  4. "The Rio Scale"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20160902040412/http://avsport.org/IAA/riocalc.htm
  5. "The Torino Impact Hazard Scale"
    https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html
  6. "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring. Impact Risk Data"
    https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
  7. "Small-Body Database Lookup"
    https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/
  8. "Risk List"
    https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list
  9. "Close Approaches"
    https://neo.ssa.esa.int/close-approaches
  10. "Help: Object"
    https://neo.ssa.esa.int/objects/help
  11. Smithsonian
    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/astronomers-raise-odds-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032-to-2-3-percent-heres-why-you-shouldnt-panic-180985949/
  12. The Planetary Science Journal
    https://doi.org/10.3847%2FPSJ%2Fac66eb
  13. "Sandia supercomputers offer new explanation of Tunguska disaster"
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-12/dnl-sso121807.php
  14. National Museums Scotland
    https://www.nms.ac.uk/discover-catalogue/falling-to-earth-the-chelyabinsk-meteorite
  15. "Archived copy"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20140905214015/http://sentinelmission.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/B612_PR_042214.pdf
  16. "Close approach to Mars. Up-to-date analysis"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20130307081417/http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/03/03/probability-of-collision-with-mars/
  17. NASA/JPL
    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-081
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