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Timeline of the far future

Updated: Wikipedia source

Timeline of the far future

While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline. These fields include astrophysics, which studies how planets and stars form, interact and die; particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; evolutionary biology, which studies how life evolves over time; plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia; and sociology, which examines how human societies and cultures evolve. These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whether humans will become extinct, whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become a red giant and whether proton decay will be the eventual end of all matter in the universe.

Tables

· Earth, the Solar System, and the universe
Astronomy and astrophysics
Geology and planetary science
Biology
Particle physics
Technology and culture
· Earth, the Solar System, and the universe
Years from now
Event
1,000
Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar day will be .mw- .mw- 1⁄30 of an SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.
2,000
As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole star.
1,000 – 10,000
As one of the long-term effects of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will have completely melted. The melt rate will depend on the amount of carbon emissions in the air.
10,000
If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres. One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
10,000
If humans were extinct, Earth would be midway through a stable warm period with the next glacial period of the Quaternary glaciation due in 10,000 years, but if humans survived and did impact their planet, the greenhouse gas emissions would disrupt this natural cycle. According to research, the carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels could cause the planet to skip glacial periods repeatedly for at least the next 500,000 years.
10,000 – 1 million
The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.
11,700
As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northern pole star. Although Earth cycles through many different naked-eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest.
11,000–15,000
By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will face away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun at aphelion; the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere will be more extreme, as it experiences more pronounced seasonal variation because of a higher percentage of land.
15,000
The oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will have moved the North African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.
17,000
The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material.
25,000
The northern polar ice cap of Mars could recede as the planet reaches a warming peak of its northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.
36,000
The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun. It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars (see timeline).
50,000
According to Berger and Loutre, the current interglacial period will end, sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming. However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely. Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie and will therefore cease to exist. The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.
50,000
Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.
60,000
It is possible that the current cooling trend might be interrupted by an interstadial phase (a warmer period), with the next glacial maximum of the Quaternary glaciation reached only in about 100 kyr AP.
100,000
The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognizable.
100,000
The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a supernova.
100,000
Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide ice sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this. (However, humans have already introduced non-native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem.)
100,000 – 10 million
Cupid and Belinda, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.
100,000
Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 (96 cubic miles) of magma.
100,000
According to Berger and Loutre, the next glacial maximum of the Quaternary glaciation is expected to be the most intense, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming.
> 100,000
As one of the long-term effects of global warming, ten percent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.
250,000
Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.
c. 300,000
At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104 may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a gamma-ray burst (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.
500,000
Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.
500,000
The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded completely.
600,000
The estimated time for the third super-eruption of the Toba supervolcano by this date. The first super-eruption occurred around 840,000 years ago, after 1.4 million years of magma input, whereas magma fed the second super-eruption at 75,000 years.
1 million
Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.
1 million
Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided. The stellar system Eta Carinae will likely have exploded in a supernova.
1 million
Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 (770 cubic miles) of magma, an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.
million
The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs (0.1663 light-years; 10,520 astronomical units) to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.
2 million
The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.
2 million+
The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.
million
The average orbital half-life of current centaurs, which are unstable because of gravitational interactions with the several outer planets. See predictions for notable centaurs.
3 million
Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today. To compensate, either a "leap minute" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI minute.
6 million
Estimated time for comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest-period comets known to return to the inner Solar System, after having travelled in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 AU (1.053 light-years) from the Sun and back.
10 million
The Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa and the African plate into the newly formed Nubian plate and the Somali plate. The Indian plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and the plains of India, will cease to exist.
10 million
The estimated time for the full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events. Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.
15 million
An estimated 694 stars will have approached the Solar System to less than 5 parsecs. Of these, 26 have a good probability to come within 1.0 parsec (3.3 light-years) and 7 within 0.5 parsecs (1.6 light-years).
20 million
The Strait of Gibraltar will have closed due to subduction and a Ring of Fire will form in the Atlantic, similar to that in the Pacific.
30 million
Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 5 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.
50 million
The maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.
50 million
According to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will cause the Gulf of California to flood into the California Central Valley. This will form a new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles and San Francisco in California to merge.[failed verification] The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench. Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean basin and create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas. The Appalachian Mountains peaks will have largely worn away, weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.
50–60 million
The Canadian Rockies will have worn away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units. The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.
50–400 million
The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.
80 million
The Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.
100 million
Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted.
100 million
According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.[failed verification] Upper estimate for the lifespan of Saturn's rings in their current state.
110 million
The Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent.
· Humanity and human constructs
Astronomy and astrophysics
Geology and planetary science
Biology
Particle physics
Mathematics
Technology and culture
· Humanity and human constructs
Date (CE) or years from now
Event
3183 CE
The Zeitpyramide (time pyramid), a public art work started in 1993 at Wemding, Germany, is scheduled for completion.
4017 CE
Maximum lifespan of the data films in Arctic World Archive, a repository that contains code of open-source projects on GitHub along with other data of historical interest (if stored in optimum conditions).
5207 CE
According to Michio Kaku, the time by which humanity will be a Type II civilization, capable of harnessing all the energy of its host star.
10,000
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and pictograms. The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.
10,000
Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project and the Long Bet Project. Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc—an ion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the Rosetta Stone.)
10,000
Projected lifespan of Norway's Svalbard Global Seed Vault.
10,000
Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.
10,000
If globalization trends lead to panmixia, human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as the effective population size will equal the actual population size.
20,000
According to the glottochronology linguistic model of Morris Swadesh, future languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on their Swadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors. The Chernobyl exclusion zone is expected to become habitable again.
24,110
Half-life of plutonium-239. At this point the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600-square-kilometre (1,000 sq mi) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation.
25,000
The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, will reach the distance of its destination: the globular cluster Messier 13. This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination. Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission.
14 September 30828 CE
Maximum system time for 64-bit NTFS-based Windows operating system.
33,800
Pioneer 10 passes within 3.4 light-years of Ross 248.
42,200
Voyager 2 passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248.
44,100
Voyager 1 passes within 1.8 light-years of Gliese 445.
46,600
Pioneer 11 passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445.
50,000
Estimated atmospheric lifetime of tetrafluoromethane, the most durable greenhouse gas.
90,300
Pioneer 10 passes within 0.76 light-years of HIP 117795.
100,000+
Time required to terraform Mars with an oxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.
100,000–1 million
Estimated time by which humanity will be a Type III civilization, and could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% the speed of light.
250,000
The estimated minimum time at which the spent plutonium stored at New Mexico's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.
13 September 275760 CE
Maximum system time for the JavaScript programming language.
492,300
Voyager 1 passes within 1.3 light-years of HD 28343.
1 million
Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) self storage-style repository in Hallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of stoneware. Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.
1 million
Current glass objects in the environment will be decomposed. Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years). Without maintenance, the Great Pyramid of Giza will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable. On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" footprint at Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space weathering. (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present on the Moon because of its almost complete lack of atmosphere.)
million
Pioneer 11 comes within three light-years of Delta Scuti.
2 million
Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.
2 million
Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo allopatric speciation. Evolutionary biologist James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated space colonies over this time, the galaxy will host an evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us". This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate genetic enhancement technologies.
4 million
Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.
5–10 million
Due to gradual degeneration, the Y chromosome will have disappeared.
million
Without maintenance, Mount Rushmore will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.
8 million
Humanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial Doomsday argument.
8 million
Most probable lifespan of the Pioneer 10 plaques before the etching is destroyed by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes. The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.
100 million
Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.
100 million
Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban Stratum" of fossilized great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as building foundations and utility tunnels.
1 billion
Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle moved as a molecular switch through a carbon nanotube, a technology developed at the University of California at Berkeley.
1 billion
Estimated lifespan of the two Voyager Golden Records before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable. Estimated time for an astroengineering project to alter the Earth's orbit, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid gravity assists.
292277026596 CE (292 billion)
Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bit Unix systems.
1020 (100 quintillion)
Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecrafts to collide with a star (or stellar remnant).
3×1019 – 3×1021(30 quintillion to 3 sextillion)
Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the University of Southampton, at an ambient temperature of 30 °C (86 °F; 303 K).

References

  1. This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the
  2. Units are short scale.
  3. See the 2001 paper by Rybicki, K. R. and Denis, C. However, according to the latest calculations, this happens with a ve
  4. Around 264 half-lives. Tyson et al. employ the computation with a different value for half-life.
  5. Manuscript was updated after publication; lifetime numbers are taken from the latest revision at https://arxiv.org/abs/1
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  6. 10 10 26
  7. Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers at this point are so vast that their digits would remain unchanged
  8. 10 10 50
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