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Swing state

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Swing state

In United States politics, a swing state (also known as battleground state, toss-up state, or purple state) is any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as "red states" and "blue states" depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign. In the 2024 United States presidential election, seven states were widely considered to be the crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Due to the winner-take-all method that most states use to determine their presidential electors, candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and candidate visits. The battlegrounds may change in certain election cycles and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the ideological appeal of the nominees.

Tables

Swing states and tipping point states in presidential elections, 2000–2024 · Swing states by results
New Jersey
New Jersey
2024 election
New Jersey
Margin
5.91%D
2020 election
New Hampshire
Margin
7.35%D
2016 election
Maine
Margin
2.96%D
2012 election
Wisconsin
Margin
6.94%D
2008 election
Nevada
Margin
12.49%D
2004 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
2.50%D
2000 election
Minnesota
Margin
2.40%D
Virginia
Virginia
2024 election
Virginia
Margin
5.78%D
2020 election
Minnesota
Margin
7.11%D
2016 election
Nevada
Margin
2.42%D
2012 election
Nevada
Margin
6.68%D
2008 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
10.32%D
2004 election
New Hampshire
Margin
1.37%D
2000 election
Oregon
Margin
0.44%D
Minnesota
Minnesota
2024 election
Minnesota
Margin
4.24%D
2020 election
Michigan
Margin
2.78%D
2016 election
Minnesota
Margin
1.52%D
2012 election
Iowa
Margin
5.81%D
2008 election
Minnesota
Margin
10.24%D
2004 election
Wisconsin
Margin
0.38%D
2000 election
Iowa
Margin
0.31%D
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
2024 election
New Hampshire
Margin
2.78%D
2020 election
Nevada
Margin
2.39%D
2016 election
New Hampshire
Margin
0.37%D
2012 election
New Hampshire
Margin
5.58%D
2008 election
New Hampshire
Margin
9.61%D
2004 election
Iowa
Margin
0.67%R
2000 election
Wisconsin
Margin
0.22%D
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
2024 election
Wisconsin
Margin
0.87%R
2020 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
1.16%D
2016 election
Michigan
Margin
0.23%R
2012 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
5.38%D
2008 election
Iowa
Margin
9.53%D
2004 election
New Mexico
Margin
0.79%R
2000 election
New Mexico
Margin
0.06%D
Michigan
Michigan
2024 election
Michigan
Margin
1.41%R
2020 election
Wisconsin
Margin
0.63%D
2016 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
0.72%R
2012 election
Colorado
Margin
5.36%D
2008 election
Colorado
Margin
8.95%D
2004 election
Ohio
Margin
2.11%R
2000 election
Florida
Margin
0.01%R
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
2024 election
Pennsylvania
Margin
1.71%R
2020 election
Arizona
Margin
0.31%D
2016 election
Wisconsin
Margin
0.77%R
2012 election
Virginia
Margin
3.88%D
2008 election
Virginia
Margin
6.30%D
2004 election
Nevada
Margin
2.59%R
2000 election
New Hampshire
Margin
1.27%R
Georgia
Georgia
2024 election
Georgia
Margin
2.20%R
2020 election
Georgia
Margin
0.24%D
2016 election
Florida
Margin
1.20%R
2012 election
Ohio
Margin
2.98%D
2008 election
Ohio
Margin
4.59%D
2004 election
Colorado
Margin
4.67%R
2000 election
Missouri
Margin
3.34%R
Nevada
Nevada
2024 election
Nevada
Margin
3.10%R
2020 election
North Carolina
Margin
1.35%R
2016 election
Arizona
Margin
3.55%R
2012 election
Florida
Margin
0.88%D
2008 election
Florida
Margin
2.82%D
2004 election
Florida
Margin
5.01%R
2000 election
Ohio
Margin
3.51%R
North Carolina
North Carolina
2024 election
North Carolina
Margin
3.21%R
2020 election
Florida
Margin
3.36%R
2016 election
North Carolina
Margin
3.66%R
2012 election
North Carolina
Margin
2.04%R
2008 election
Indiana
Margin
1.03%D
2004 election
Missouri
Margin
7.20%R
2000 election
Nevada
Margin
3.55%R
Arizona
Arizona
2024 election
Arizona
Margin
5.53%R
2020 election
Texas
Margin
5.58%R
2016 election
Georgia
Margin
5.13%R
2012 election
Georgia
Margin
7.82%R
2008 election
North Carolina
Margin
0.33%D
2004 election
Virginia
Margin
8.20%R
2000 election
Tennessee
Margin
3.86%R
National
National
2024 election
National
Margin
1.48%R
2020 election
National
Margin
4.45%D
2016 election
National
Margin
2.10%D
2012 election
National
Margin
3.86%D
2008 election
National
Margin
7.27%D
2004 election
National
Margin
2.46%R
2000 election
National
Margin
0.52%D
Bias
Bias
2024 election
Bias
Margin
0.23%R
2020 election
Bias
Margin
3.82%R
2016 election
Bias
Margin
2.87%R
2012 election
Bias
Margin
1.51%D
2008 election
Bias
Margin
1.68%D
2004 election
Bias
Margin
0.35%D
2000 election
Bias
Margin
0.53%R
2024 election
Margin
2020 election
Margin
2016 election
Margin
2012 election
Margin
2008 election
Margin
2004 election
Margin
2000 election
Margin
New Jersey
5.91%D
New Hampshire
7.35%D
Maine
2.96%D
Wisconsin
6.94%D
Nevada
12.49%D
Pennsylvania
2.50%D
Minnesota
2.40%D
Virginia
5.78%D
Minnesota
7.11%D
Nevada
2.42%D
Nevada
6.68%D
Pennsylvania
10.32%D
New Hampshire
1.37%D
Oregon
0.44%D
Minnesota
4.24%D
Michigan
2.78%D
Minnesota
1.52%D
Iowa
5.81%D
Minnesota
10.24%D
Wisconsin
0.38%D
Iowa
0.31%D
New Hampshire
2.78%D
Nevada
2.39%D
New Hampshire
0.37%D
New Hampshire
5.58%D
New Hampshire
9.61%D
Iowa
0.67%R
Wisconsin
0.22%D
Wisconsin
0.87%R
Pennsylvania
1.16%D
Michigan
0.23%R
Pennsylvania
5.38%D
Iowa
9.53%D
New Mexico
0.79%R
New Mexico
0.06%D
Michigan
1.41%R
Wisconsin
0.63%D
Pennsylvania
0.72%R
Colorado
5.36%D
Colorado
8.95%D
Ohio
2.11%R
Florida
0.01%R
Pennsylvania
1.71%R
Arizona
0.31%D
Wisconsin
0.77%R
Virginia
3.88%D
Virginia
6.30%D
Nevada
2.59%R
New Hampshire
1.27%R
Georgia
2.20%R
Georgia
0.24%D
Florida
1.20%R
Ohio
2.98%D
Ohio
4.59%D
Colorado
4.67%R
Missouri
3.34%R
Nevada
3.10%R
North Carolina
1.35%R
Arizona
3.55%R
Florida
0.88%D
Florida
2.82%D
Florida
5.01%R
Ohio
3.51%R
North Carolina
3.21%R
Florida
3.36%R
North Carolina
3.66%R
North Carolina
2.04%R
Indiana
1.03%D
Missouri
7.20%R
Nevada
3.55%R
Arizona
5.53%R
Texas
5.58%R
Georgia
5.13%R
Georgia
7.82%R
North Carolina
0.33%D
Virginia
8.20%R
Tennessee
3.86%R
National
1.48%R
National
4.45%D
National
2.10%D
National
3.86%D
National
7.27%D
National
2.46%R
National
0.52%D
Bias
0.23%R
Bias
3.82%R
Bias
2.87%R
Bias
1.51%D
Bias
1.68%D
Bias
0.35%D
Bias
0.53%R

References

  1. If Donald Trump were able to hold onto Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, the result would have been a 269–269 electoral ti
  2. The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated. If faithless electors ar
  3. Center For Politics
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/
  4. "Seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election"
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511pyn3xw3o
  5. "What are the current swing states, and how have they changed over time?"
    https://usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-current-swing-states-and-how-have-they-changed-over-time/
  6. Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter
  7. www.history.com
    https://www.history.com/news/swing-states-presidential-elections
  8. National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org
    https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/voting-history-of-the-15-battleground-states
  9. 270toWin.com
    https://www.270towin.com/state-electoral-vote-history/
  10. 270toWin.com
    https://www.270towin.com/2020-governor-election/2020-actual-results
  11. Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-04/biden-wins-nebraska-s-2nd-congressional-district
  12. The New York Times
    https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/27/arizona-is-probably-not-a-swing-state/
  13. Silver, Nate
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  14. FiveThirtyEight
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  20. FiveThirtyEight
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  21. Vox
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  24. FiveThirtyEight
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  25. FiveThirtyEight
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  26. elections.harpweek.com
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  27. "Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses", David Rosenbaum, New York Times, April 21, 2005.
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  28. Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes, Julie Salamon, "The New York Times", October 2, 2004
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  29. Slate
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  30. The New York Times
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  31. News 5 Cleveland WEWS
    https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/why-ohio-is-not-considered-a-swing-state-in-this-years-presidential-election
  32. Tallahassee Democrat
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  33. The Washington Post
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  34. The Hill
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  35. The Washington Post
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  37. The Wall Street Journal
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  41. "New election map: Ohio, Colorado no longer swing states"
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  43. "The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College"
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  45. Why the Electoral College is Bad for America
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