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Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Updated: Wikipedia source

Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls were declared candidates or had received media speculation about their possible candidacy. According to NPR's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Tables

· Forecasts
Alaska
Alaska
State
Alaska
EVs
3
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 6 01:00 am
PVI
R+8
2020 result
52 % R
2020 margin
10 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid R
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Very Likely R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Safe R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Safe R
Arizona
Arizona
State
Arizona
EVs
11
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+2
2020 result
49 % D
2020 margin
0 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Tilt R (flip)
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Colorado
Colorado
State
Colorado
EVs
10
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
D+4
2020 result
55 % D
2020 margin
13 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid D
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Solid D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely D
Florida
Florida
State
Florida
EVs
30
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 08:00 pm
PVI
R+3
2020 result
51 % R
2020 margin
3 %
IE November 3, 2024
Lean R
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Likely R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely R
Georgia
Georgia
State
Georgia
EVs
16
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 07:00 pm
PVI
R+3
2020 result
49 % D
2020 margin
0 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Likely D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Iowa
Iowa
State
Iowa
EVs
6
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+6
2020 result
53 % R
2020 margin
8 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tilt R
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Tilt R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely R
Kansas
Kansas
State
Kansas
EVs
6
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+10
2020 result
56 % R
2020 margin
14 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid R
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Very Likely R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Safe R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Safe R
Maine
Maine
State
Maine
EVs
2
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 08:00 pm
PVI
D+2
2020 result
53 % D
2020 margin
9 %
IE November 3, 2024
Likely D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Safe D
ME–02
ME–02
State
ME–02
EVs
1
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 08:00 pm
PVI
R+6
2020 result
52 % R
2020 margin
7 %
IE November 3, 2024
Lean R
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Very Likely R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely R
Michigan
Michigan
State
Michigan
EVs
15
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+1
2020 result
50 % D
2020 margin
2 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Likely D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean D
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Minnesota
Minnesota
State
Minnesota
EVs
10
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
D+1
2020 result
52 % D
2020 margin
7 %
IE November 3, 2024
Lean D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Lean D
NE–01
NE–01
State
NE–01
EVs
1
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+9
2020 result
56 % R
2020 margin
14 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid R
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Safe R
NE–02
NE–02
State
NE–02
EVs
1
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
EVEN
2020 result
52 % D
2020 margin
6 %
IE November 3, 2024
Lean D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely D
Nevada
Nevada
State
Nevada
EVs
6
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 10:00 pm
PVI
R+1
2020 result
50 % D
2020 margin
2 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Tilt D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean D
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
State
New Hampshire
EVs
4
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 08:00 pm
PVI
D+1
2020 result
52 % D
2020 margin
7 %
IE November 3, 2024
Lean D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely D
New Mexico
New Mexico
State
New Mexico
EVs
5
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
D+3
2020 result
54 % D
2020 margin
10 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Very Likely D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely D
North Carolina
North Carolina
State
North Carolina
EVs
16
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 07:30 pm
PVI
R+3
2020 result
49 % R
2020 margin
1 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Tilt D (flip)
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean R
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Ohio
Ohio
State
Ohio
EVs
17
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 07:30 pm
PVI
R+6
2020 result
53 % R
2020 margin
8 %
IE November 3, 2024
Likely R
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Likely R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Safe R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely R
Oregon
Oregon
State
Oregon
EVs
8
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 11:00 pm
PVI
D+6
2020 result
56 % D
2020 margin
16 %
IE November 3, 2024
Solid D
Cook November 4, 2024
Solid D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Safe D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Safe D
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
State
Pennsylvania
EVs
19
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 08:00 pm
PVI
R+2
2020 result
50 % D
2020 margin
1 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Lean D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean D
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Texas
Texas
State
Texas
EVs
40
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+5
2020 result
52 % R
2020 margin
5 %
IE November 3, 2024
Likely R
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Lean R
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely R
CNN November 4, 2024
Solid R
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely R
Virginia
Virginia
State
Virginia
EVs
13
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 07:00 pm
PVI
D+3
2020 result
54 % D
2020 margin
10 %
IE November 3, 2024
Likely D
Cook November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Solid D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Likely D
CNN November 4, 2024
Lean D
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Likely D
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
State
Wisconsin
EVs
10
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
Nov 5 09:00 pm
PVI
R+2
2020 result
49 % D
2020 margin
0 %
IE November 3, 2024
Tossup
Cook November 4, 2024
Tossup
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Lean D
Sabato November 4, 2024
Lean D
CNN November 4, 2024
Tossup
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Tossup
Overall
Overall
State
Overall
EVs
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
PVI
D – 308 R – 230 0 tossup
2020 result
D – 276 R – 262 0 tossups
2020 margin
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
IE November 3, 2024
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
Cook November 4, 2024
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups
CNalysis November 4, 2024
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups
State
EVs
Last poll closing time (UTC−05:00)
PVI
2020 result
2020 margin
IE November 3, 2024
Cook November 4, 2024
CNalysis November 4, 2024
Sabato November 4, 2024
CNN November 4, 2024
DDHQ November 5, 2024
Alaska
3
Nov 6 01:00 am
R+8
52 % R
10 %
Solid R
Solid R
Very Likely R
Safe R
Solid R
Safe R
Arizona
11
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+2
49 % D
0 %
Tossup
Tossup
Tilt R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Colorado
10
Nov 5 09:00 pm
D+4
55 % D
13 %
Solid D
Solid D
Solid D
Solid D
Lean D
Likely D
Florida
30
Nov 5 08:00 pm
R+3
51 % R
3 %
Lean R
Likely R
Likely R
Likely R
Lean R
Likely R
Georgia
16
Nov 5 07:00 pm
R+3
49 % D
0 %
Tossup
Tossup
Likely D
Lean R (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Iowa
6
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+6
53 % R
8 %
Tilt R
Likely R
Tilt R
Likely R
Solid R
Likely R
Kansas
6
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+10
56 % R
14 %
Solid R
Solid R
Very Likely R
Safe R
Solid R
Safe R
Maine
2
Nov 5 08:00 pm
D+2
53 % D
9 %
Likely D
Likely D
Solid D
Likely D
Solid D
Safe D
ME–02
1
Nov 5 08:00 pm
R+6
52 % R
7 %
Lean R
Likely R
Very Likely R
Likely R
Lean R
Likely R
Michigan
15
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+1
50 % D
2 %
Tossup
Tossup
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Minnesota
10
Nov 5 09:00 pm
D+1
52 % D
7 %
Lean D
Likely D
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Lean D
NE–01
1
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+9
56 % R
14 %
Solid R
Solid R
Solid R
Likely R
Solid R
Safe R
NE–02
1
Nov 5 09:00 pm
EVEN
52 % D
6 %
Lean D
Likely D
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Nevada
6
Nov 5 10:00 pm
R+1
50 % D
2 %
Tossup
Tossup
Tilt D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
New Hampshire
4
Nov 5 08:00 pm
D+1
52 % D
7 %
Lean D
Likely D
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
New Mexico
5
Nov 5 09:00 pm
D+3
54 % D
10 %
Solid D
Likely D
Very Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
North Carolina
16
Nov 5 07:30 pm
R+3
49 % R
1 %
Tossup
Tossup
Tilt D (flip)
Lean R
Tossup
Tossup
Ohio
17
Nov 5 07:30 pm
R+6
53 % R
8 %
Likely R
Solid R
Likely R
Safe R
Solid R
Likely R
Oregon
8
Nov 5 11:00 pm
D+6
56 % D
16 %
Solid D
Solid D
Solid D
Safe D
Lean D
Safe D
Pennsylvania
19
Nov 5 08:00 pm
R+2
50 % D
1 %
Tossup
Tossup
Lean D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Texas
40
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+5
52 % R
5 %
Likely R
Likely R
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Likely R
Virginia
13
Nov 5 07:00 pm
D+3
54 % D
10 %
Likely D
Likely D
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Wisconsin
10
Nov 5 09:00 pm
R+2
49 % D
0 %
Tossup
Tossup
Lean D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Overall
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
D – 308 R – 230 0 tossup
D – 276 R – 262 0 tossups
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups
D – 241 R – 230 67 tossups
· Alaska
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 20–22, 2024
Sample size
1,703 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 8–9, 2024
Sample size
1,254 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)
Cygnal (R)
Poll source
Cygnal (R)
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 1, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
4%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
October 20–22, 2024
1,703 (LV)
± 2 %
55%
45%
Alaska Survey Research
October 8–9, 2024
1,254 (LV)
± 2 %
54%
46%
Cygnal (R)
August 30 – September 1, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
53%
43%
4%
· Alaska
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 20–22, 2024
Sample size
1,703 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent
7%
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 8–9, 2024
Sample size
1,254 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent
7%
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
September 27–29, 2024
Sample size
1,182 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent
6%
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
September 11–12, 2024
Sample size
1,254 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent
5%
Other / Undecided
6%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent
Other / Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
October 20–22, 2024
1,703 (LV)
± 2 %
51%
43%
7%
Alaska Survey Research
October 8–9, 2024
1,254 (LV)
± 2 %
50%
43%
7%
Alaska Survey Research
September 27–29, 2024
1,182 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
43%
6%
Alaska Survey Research
September 11–12, 2024
1,254 (LV)
47%
42%
5%
6%
· Arizona
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 22 – November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +1 %
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
47 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
2 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
47 %
Dates updated
49 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
3 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +2 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 22 – November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
48 %
4 %
Trump +1 %
538
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
48 %
4 %
Trump +2 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
49 %
3 %
Trump +2 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
47 %
49 %
2 %
Trump +2 %
Average
47 %
49 %
3 %
Trump +2 %
· Arizona
HarrisX
HarrisX
Poll source
HarrisX
Date(s) administered
November 3–5, 2024
Sample size
1,636 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
1,468 (LV)
1,468 (LV)
Poll source
1,468 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
4%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
875 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Other / Undecided
1%
Victory Insights
Victory Insights
Poll source
Victory Insights
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2024
Sample size
750 (LV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
1,090 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
801 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
5%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
967 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Other / Undecided
2%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 30 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
900 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
1%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 25 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
1,025 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
8%
1,025 (LV)
1,025 (LV)
Poll source
1,025 (LV)
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
6%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 8 – November 1, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
750 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
1,005 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
October 29–31, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 25–31, 2024
Sample size
880 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
856 (LV)
856 (LV)
Poll source
856 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 21−30, 2024
Sample size
666 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 25–29, 2024
Sample size
803 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 25–29, 2024
Sample size
1,458 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
2%
Mitchell Research & Communications
Mitchell Research & Communications
Poll source
Mitchell Research & Communications
Date(s) administered
October 28, 2024
Sample size
610 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
RABA Research
RABA Research
Poll source
RABA Research
Date(s) administered
October 25–27, 2024
Sample size
589 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Other / Undecided
12%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 24–26, 2024
Sample size
1,094 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
2,077 (A)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
2,066 (LV)
2,066 (LV)
Poll source
2,066 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
2%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
October 17–22, 2024
Sample size
1,329 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,193 (LV)
1,193 (LV)
Poll source
1,193 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
October 20–21, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
HighGround
HighGround
Poll source
HighGround
Date(s) administered
October 19–20, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Poll source
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 16–20, 2024
Sample size
915 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
861 (LV)
861 (LV)
Poll source
861 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
2%
University of Arizona/Truedot
University of Arizona/Truedot
Poll source
University of Arizona/Truedot
Date(s) administered
October 12–20, 2024
Sample size
846 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
9%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 12–17, 2024
Sample size
1,440 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
CBS News/YouGov
CBS News/YouGov
Poll source
CBS News/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 11−16, 2024
Sample size
1,435 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 6−15, 2024
Sample size
653 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
The Washington Post/Schar School
The Washington Post/Schar School
Poll source
The Washington Post/Schar School
Date(s) administered
September 30 – October 15, 2024
Sample size
580 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
6%
580 (LV)
580 (LV)
Poll source
580 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 10–13, 2024
Sample size
1,090 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 7–10, 2024
Sample size
808 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
4%
808 (LV)
808 (LV)
Poll source
808 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Date(s) administered
October 6–9, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 5–8, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
1%
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal
Poll source
The Wall Street Journal
Date(s) administered
September 28 – October 8, 2024
Sample size
600 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 6 – October 8, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 5–7, 2024
Sample size
735 (LV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s) administered
September 30 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
783 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
4%
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 1, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
September 29–30, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
1%
HighGround
HighGround
Poll source
HighGround
Date(s) administered
September 26–29, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
National Research
National Research
Poll source
National Research
Date(s) administered
September 25–29, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Poll source
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Date(s) administered
September 23–29, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 27–28, 2024
Sample size
920 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
September 20–25, 2024
Sample size
946 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Poll source
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Date(s) administered
September 19–25, 2024
Sample size
409 (LV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Poll source
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 19–25, 2024
Sample size
977 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
3%
926 (LV)
926 (LV)
Poll source
926 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
3%
Fox News
Fox News
Poll source
Fox News
Date(s) administered
September 20−24, 2024
Sample size
1,021 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
764 (LV)
764 (LV)
Poll source
764 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
September 19−24, 2024
Sample size
1,416 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,264 (LV)
1,264 (LV)
Poll source
1,264 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
September 19–22, 2024
Sample size
1,030 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
September 17–21, 2024
Sample size
713 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
6%
713 (LV)
713 (LV)
Poll source
713 (LV)
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 15–18, 2024
Sample size
868 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 9−18, 2024
Sample size
862 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
September 11–12, 2024
Sample size
1,088 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
September 7–9, 2024
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 8, 2024
Sample size
901 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
TIPP Insights
TIPP Insights
Poll source
TIPP Insights
Date(s) administered
September 3–5, 2024
Sample size
1,015 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
949 (LV)
949 (LV)
Poll source
949 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
6%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
September 1–3, 2024
Sample size
804 (RV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
HarrisX
November 3–5, 2024
1,636 (RV)
± 2 %
46%
47%
7%
49%
51%
1,468 (LV)
47%
49%
4%
49%
51%
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
875 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
52%
1%
Victory Insights
November 2–3, 2024
750 (LV)
48%
49%
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
November 1–3, 2024
1,090 (LV)
± 2 %
47%
49%
4%
Patriot Polling
November 1–3, 2024
801 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
51%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
November 1–2, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
49%
5%
AtlasIntel
November 1–2, 2024
967 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
52%
2%
Emerson College
October 30 – November 2, 2024
900 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
50%
2%
48%
51%
1%
The New York Times/Siena College
October 25 – November 2, 2024
1,025 (RV)
± 3 %
44%
48%
8%
1,025 (LV)
45%
49%
6%
ActiVote
October 8 – November 1, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
51%
SoCal Strategies (R)
October 30–31, 2024
750 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
50%
1%
AtlasIntel
October 30–31, 2024
1,005 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
51%
2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
October 29–31, 2024
800 (LV)
47%
50%
3%
YouGov
October 25–31, 2024
880 (RV)
± 4 %
49%
50%
1%
856 (LV)
49%
50%
1%
Morning Consult
October 21−30, 2024
666 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
48%
4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 25–29, 2024
803 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
48%
6%
AtlasIntel
October 25–29, 2024
1,458 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
51%
2%
Mitchell Research & Communications
October 28, 2024
610 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
50%
2%
RABA Research
October 25–27, 2024
589 (RV)
± 4 %
45%
43%
12%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 24–26, 2024
1,094 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
48%
6%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
2,077 (A)
49%
49%
2%
2,066 (LV)
47%
51%
2%
Marist College
October 17–22, 2024
1,329 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
1,193 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
50%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
October 20–21, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
50%
3%
HighGround
October 19–20, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
47%
7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
October 16–20, 2024
915 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
861 (LV)
49%
49%
2%
University of Arizona/Truedot
October 12–20, 2024
846 (RV)
± 3 %
46%
45%
9%
AtlasIntel
October 12–17, 2024
1,440 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
CBS News/YouGov
October 11−16, 2024
1,435 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
51%
1%
Morning Consult
October 6−15, 2024
653 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
48%
3%
The Washington Post/Schar School
September 30 – October 15, 2024
580 (RV)
± 5 %
44%
50%
6%
580 (LV)
46%
49%
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 10–13, 2024
1,090 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
48%
6%
The New York Times/Siena College
October 7–10, 2024
808 (RV)
± 4 %
45%
51%
4%
808 (LV)
46%
51%
3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
October 6–9, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
49%
5%
Emerson College
October 5–8, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
49%
4%
48%
51%
1%
The Wall Street Journal
September 28 – October 8, 2024
600 (RV)
± 5 %
48%
46%
6%
ActiVote
September 6 – October 8, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
51%
SoCal Strategies (R)
October 5–7, 2024
735 (LV)
49%
48%
3%

References

  1. Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D ., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most
  2. District boundaries have changed since the 2020 election.
  3. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. "Other" with 2%
  7. "Other" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 1%
  9. "Someone else" with 7%
  10. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  11. "Someone else" with 3%
  12. "Other" with 3%
  13. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. "Someone else" with 2%
  15. "Someone else" with 5%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  17. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. "Someone else" with 4%
  19. "Other" with 7%
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
Image
Source:
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