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2026 Farrer by-election

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2026 Farrer by-election

A by-election was held on 9 May 2026 to elect the Australian member of Parliament (MP) for the New South Wales division of Farrer. One Nation candidate David Farley was elected, defeating independent Michelle Milthorpe. The election followed the resignation of former opposition leader and Liberal leader Sussan Ley. It was the first by-election since the 2025 federal election, the first during Angus Taylor's leadership of the Liberals, the first during Matt Canavan's leadership of the Nationals, and the fifth during Anthony Albanese's tenure as prime minister. It was also the first time a One Nation candidate was elected to the House of Representatives, with previous MPs having defected to the party whilst sitting in Parliament.

Infobox

Votes counted
87 %as of 20 May 2026, 18:15 AEST
Candidate
Raissa Butkowski
Party
Liberal
Primary vote
12,550
Percentage
12 %
Swing
31 pp
TCP
58,199
TCP %
57 %
TCP swing
57 pp

Tables

Two-party-preferred vote in Farrer, 1990–2025 · Background › Seat details
Government
Government
Election
Government
Election
ALP
1990
ALP
1993
L/NP
1996
L/NP
1998
L/NP
2001
L/NP
2004
ALP
2007
ALP
2010
L/NP
2013
L/NP
2016
L/NP
Election
1990
1993
1996
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
Labor
32 %
32 %
28 %
35 %
—N/a
30 %
38 %
35 %
32 %
29 %
Liberal
—N/a
—N/a
—N/a
—N/a
50 %
69 %
61 %
64 %
67 %
70 %
National
67 %
67 %
71 %
64 %
49 %
—N/a
—N/a
—N/a
—N/a
—N/a
Government
ALP
ALP
L/NP
L/NP
L/NP
L/NP
ALP
ALP
L/NP
L/NP
L/NP
2025 Australian federal election: Farrer
Total formal votes
Total formal votes
Party
Total formal votes
Party
103,063
Candidate
90
Votes
−1
Informal votes
Informal votes
Party
Informal votes
Party
10,234
Candidate
9
Votes
+1
Turnout
Turnout
Party
Turnout
Party
113,297
Candidate
91
Votes
+2
Notional two-party-preferred count
Notional two-party-preferred count
Party
Notional two-party-preferred count
Two-candidate-preferred result
Two-candidate-preferred result
Party
Two-candidate-preferred result
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
±%
Liberal
Sussan Ley
44,743
43
−8
Independent
Michelle Milthorpe
20,567
19
+19
Labor
Glen Hyde
15,551
15
−3
One Nation
Emma Hicks
6,803
6
+0
Greens
Richard Hendrie
5,085
4
−4
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Peter Sinclair
3,577
3
−1
Trumpet of Patriots
Tanya Hargraves
2,441
2
+2
Family First
Rebecca Scriven
2,218
2
+2
People First
David O'Reilly
2,078
2
+2
Total formal votes
103,063
90
−1
Informal votes
10,234
9
+1
Turnout
113,297
91
+2
Notional two-party-preferred count
Liberal
Sussan Ley
64,812
62
−3
Labor
Glen Hyde
38,251
37
+3
Two-candidate-preferred result
Liberal
Sussan Ley
57,916
56
−10
Independent
Michelle Milthorpe
45,147
43
+43
Liberal hold
· Candidates
Party
Candidate
Background
Liberal
Raissa Butkowski
Lawyer and City of Albury councillor
Independent
Michelle Milthorpe
Teacher, business owner and second-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025
People First
Jamie Bonnefin
Architect and small business owner
National
Brad Robertson
Australian Army veteran and former commander, Albury branch chair
Legalise Cannabis
Aimee Lee Pearson
Albury-based pharmacist
Greens
Richard August Hendrie
Mental health worker and fifth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025
Independent
Roger Woodward
Seventh-placing candidate for Berowra in 2025
One Nation
David Farley
Former CEO of AACo and irrigation specialist
Family First
Rebecca Scriven
Works at a Christian school and eighth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025
Sustainable Australia
Lucas James Ellis
Works in the planning sector
Independent
Gary Jean Pappin
Murray River Council councillor and retired farmer
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Peter Sinclair
Egg packer and sixth-placing candidate for Farrer in 2025
· Opinion polling
LIB
LIB
Date
LIB
Firm
NAT
Sample size
Milthorpe (IND)
Margin of error
ALP
Primary vote
ONP
Primary vote
GRN
Primary vote
OTH
Primary vote
UND
Primary vote
LIB
Primary vote
Milthorpe (IND)
Primary vote
ONP
9–10 Apr 2026
9–10 Apr 2026
Date
9–10 Apr 2026
Firm
uComms
Sample size
1,116
Margin of error
≈±3%
Primary vote
16 %
Primary vote
7 %
Primary vote
30 %
Primary vote
—N/a
Primary vote
30 %
Primary vote
3 %
Primary vote
4 %
Primary vote
7 %
11 Mar 2026
11 Mar 2026
Date
11 Mar 2026
Firm
Matt Canavan becomes Nationals leader
5–6 Mar 2026
5–6 Mar 2026
Date
5–6 Mar 2026
Firm
uComms
Sample size
1,281
Margin of error
±2 %
Primary vote
19 %
Primary vote
5 %
Primary vote
23 %
Primary vote
9 %
Primary vote
28 %
Primary vote
3 %
Primary vote
2 %
Primary vote
8 %
27 Feb 2026
27 Feb 2026
Date
27 Feb 2026
Firm
Sussan Ley resigns as an MP
3 May 2025
3 May 2025
Date
3 May 2025
Firm
2025 federal election
Sample size
43 %
Margin of error
—
Primary vote
20 %
Primary vote
15 %
Primary vote
6 %
Primary vote
4 %
Primary vote
10 %
Primary vote
—
Primary vote
56 %
Primary vote
43 %
Date
Firm
Sample size
Margin of error
Primary vote
2CP vote
LIB
NAT
Milthorpe (IND)
ALP
ONP
GRN
OTH
UND
LIB
Milthorpe (IND)
ONP
9–10 Apr 2026
uComms
1,116
≈±3%
16 %
7 %
30 %
—N/a
30 %
3 %
4 %
7 %
11 Mar 2026
Matt Canavan becomes Nationals leader
5–6 Mar 2026
uComms
1,281
±2 %
19 %
5 %
23 %
9 %
28 %
3 %
2 %
8 %
27 Feb 2026
Sussan Ley resigns as an MP
3 May 2025
2025 federal election
43 %
—
20 %
15 %
6 %
4 %
10 %
—
56 %
43 %
· How-to-vote cards
LIB
LIB
Candidate
LIB
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
Mil.
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
PFP
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
NAT
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
LCA
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
GRN
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
Woo.
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
ONP
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
FFP
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
SAP
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
Pap.
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
SFF
Candidate
How-to-vote card (read column top down)
LIB
Mil.
PFP
NAT
LCA
GRN
Woo.
ONP
FFP
SAP
Pap.
SFF
Raissa Butkowski (LIB)
1
—N/a
7
2
—N/a
7
—N/a
3
3
—N/a
Michelle Milthorpe (IND)
9
1
11
8
—N/a
3
—N/a
11
11
—N/a
Jamie Bonnefin (PFP)
10
—N/a
1
4
—N/a
11
—N/a
5
5
—N/a
Brad Robertson (NAT)
2
—N/a
4
1
—N/a
6
—N/a
2
2
—N/a
Aimee Lee Pearson (LCA)
11
—N/a
10
9
1
4
—N/a
8
10
—N/a
Richard August Hendrie (GRN)
12
—N/a
12
12
—N/a
1
—N/a
12
12
—N/a
Roger Woodward (IND)
3
—N/a
8
10
—N/a
9
1
9
7
—N/a
David Farley (ONP)
4
—N/a
4
5
—N/a
12
—N/a
1
4
—N/a
Rebecca Scriven (FFP)
5
—N/a
3
3
—N/a
10
—N/a
6
1
—N/a
Lucas James Ellis (SAP)
6
—N/a
5
11
—N/a
5
—N/a
7
9
1
Gary Jean Pappin (IND)
7
—N/a
9
7
—N/a
2
—N/a
10
8
—N/a
Peter Sinclair (SFF)
8
—N/a
2
6
—N/a
8
—N/a
4
5
—N/a

References

  1. Commissioned by Michelle Milthorpe.
  2. Commissioned by The Australia Institute.
  3. In the 2025 Australian federal election, One Nation did not reach the two‑candidate‑preferred (2CP) count. This number r
  4. Michelle Milthorpe finished second in the 2025 Australian federal election to the Liberal candidate. This figure reflect
  5. "Ley leaves Taylor an immediate electoral test with Farrer by-election"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260213015200/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-13/farrer-byelection-sussan-ley-angus-taylor/106341236
  6. "Farrer by-election coming soon"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260213015447/https://www.tallyroom.com.au/64277
  7. "One Nation scores historic win in Farrer by-election"
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-09/farrer-sat-night-results/106656856
  8. Australian Electoral Commission
    https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2026/03-05.htm
  9. The Conversation
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260213035205/https://theconversation.com/angus-taylor-defeats-sussan-ley-by-hefty-margin-of-34-17-as-liberal-leader-275909
  10. "Federal politics live: Angus Taylor overwhelmingly wins Liberal leadership, Sussan Ley to quit politics, setting up by-election"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260212212225/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-13/federal-politics-live-blog-liberal-spill/106339480
  11. aph
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260307074809/https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/About_the_House_News/Media_Releases/Farrer_by-election
  12. The Conversation
    https://theconversation.com/farrer-byelection-will-be-on-may-9-277621
  13. Australian Electoral Commission
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260307075000/https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionPage-31496-118.htm
  14. "Farrer, NSW"
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260213001122/https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionPage-31496-118.htm
  15. The Conversation
    https://theconversation.com/farrer-byelection-will-be-on-may-9-277621
  16. Australian Associated Press
    https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/date-set-for-crucial-by-election-to-replace-ex-leader
  17. Seven News
    https://7news.com.au/video/news/four-way-battle-begins-for-farrer-by-election-bc-6390536476112
  18. ABC News
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-15/liberal-by-election-candidate-raissa-butkowski-farrer/106456908
  19. Back Country Bulletin
    https://web.archive.org/web/20260307074302/https://backcountrybulletin.app/NewsStory/independent-michelle-milthorpe-to-contests-farrer/698ec45aae1794002d601a8d
  20. Region Riverina
    https://web.archive.org/web/20241005020157/https://regionriverina.com.au/we-deserve-more-advocate-for-child-abuse-victims-to-run-in-seat-of-farrer/73248/
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