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2025 Caerphilly by-election

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2025 Caerphilly by-election

The 2025 Caerphilly by-election was held on 23 October 2025 to elect the new member of the Senedd (MS) for the Senedd constituency of Caerphilly following the death of Hefin David on 12 August 2025. Former Senedd member Lindsay Whittle of Plaid Cymru won the by-election with 47% of the vote, ending more than a hundred years of Labour representation in UK Parliament and Senedd elections in Caerphilly, and outperforming expectations of a closer race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. Voter turnout was 50 %, the highest ever for a Senedd by-election. The election left the incumbent Labour government with a minority of 29 out of 60 seats. This was the fifth Senedd by-election to be held since its formation as the National Assembly for Wales in 1999 and the first since it changed its name to the Senedd in 2020. It was also expected to be the last Welsh Senedd by-election in its foreseeable future, as pending reforms to the Senedd's electoral system in 2026 were to introduce a closed list system of proportional representation, filling vacant constituency seats using the party list.

Infobox

Turnout
50 % ( 3 pp)
Candidate
Lindsay Whittle
Party
Plaid Cymru
Popular vote
15,961
Percentage
47 %
Swing
19 pp

Tables

· Opinion polling
By-election result
By-election result
Pollster
By-election result
Client
23 Oct 2025
Dates conducted
Sample size
11%
Lab
47 %
Plaid
2%
Con
1 %
Lib Dem
36%
Reform
1 %
Green
0 %
Others
11
Survation
Survation
Pollster
Survation
Client
Camlas
Dates conducted
7–14 Oct 2025
Sample size
501
Lab
12%
Plaid
38%
Con
4%
Lib Dem
1%
Reform
42%
Green
3%
Others
Lead
4
2021 Senedd election
2021 Senedd election
Pollster
2021 Senedd election
Client
6 May 2021
Dates conducted
Sample size
46 %
Lab
28 %
Plaid
17 %
Con
2 %
Lib Dem
1 %
Reform
Green
3 %
Others
17
Pollster
Client
Dates conducted
Sample size
Lab
Plaid
Con
Lib Dem
Reform
Green
Others
Lead
By-election result
23 Oct 2025
11%
47 %
2%
1 %
36%
1 %
0 %
11
Survation
Camlas
7–14 Oct 2025
501
12%
38%
4%
1%
42%
3%
4
2021 Senedd election
6 May 2021
46 %
28 %
17 %
2 %
1 %
3 %
17
2025 Caerphilly by-election · Results
Majority
Majority
Party
Majority
Party
3,848
Candidate
11
Votes
N/A
Turnout
Turnout
Party
Turnout
Party
33,689
Candidate
50
Votes
+6
Registered electors
Registered electors
Party
Registered electors
Party
66,895
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
±%
Plaid Cymru
Lindsay Whittle
15,961
47
+19
Reform
Llŷr Powell
12,113
36
+34
Labour
Richard Tunnicliffe
3,713
11
−34
Conservative
Gareth Potter
690
2
−15
Green
Gareth Hughes
516
1
New
Liberal Democrats
Steven Aicheler
497
1
−1
Gwlad
Anthony Cook
117
0
New
UKIP
Roger Quilliam
79
0
New
Majority
3,848
11
N/A
Turnout
33,689
50
+6
Registered electors
66,895
Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
Swing
2021 Senedd election: Caerphilly · Previous result
Majority
Majority
Party
Majority
Party
5,078
Candidate
17
Votes
+11
Turnout
Turnout
Party
Turnout
Party
28,914
Candidate
44
Votes
+1
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
±%
Labour
Hefin David
13,289
46
+10
Plaid Cymru
Delyth Jewell
8,211
28
–1
Conservative
Steven Mayfield
5,013
17
+8
Abolish
Stephen Jones
1,119
3
New
Liberal Democrats
Steven Aicheler
787
2
+1
Reform
Tim Price
495
1
New
Majority
5,078
17
+11
Turnout
28,914
44
+1
Labour hold
Swing

References

  1. BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly9nnyq23eo
  2. ITV News
    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-08-18/by-election-to-be-called-after-death-of-senedd-member
  3. The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/plaid-cymru-reform-uk-wales-welsh-labour-one-b2851290.html
  4. www
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czew7nedd8jo
  5. Caerphilly Observer
    https://caerphilly.observer/news/1040573/trethomas-parish-trust-hosts-caerphilly-general-election-hustings/
  6. www
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/labourmarketlocal
  7. Wales Online
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/i-believe-everything-nigel-says-31299748
  8. news
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/constituencies/112.stm
  9. Caerphilly Observer
    https://caerphilly.observer/news/1053653/is-immigration-really-an-issue-for-the-caerphilly-senedd-by-election/
  10. BBC Wales News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq58j18w32no
  11. ITV Wales News
    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2025-08-13/welsh-politician-dies-suddenly
  12. Nation
    https://nation.cymru/news/by-election-to-be-held-in-caerphilly-following-sudden-death-of-ms-hefin-david/
  13. Cwmbran Life
    https://www.cwmbranlife.co.uk/caerphilly-seat-declared-vacant-after-hefin-davids-death
  14. WalesOnline
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/caerphilly-senedd-election-date-candidates-32447801
  15. Nation
    https://nation.cymru/news/plaid-selects-former-am-for-senedd-by-election/
  16. Wales Online
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plan-demolish-unused-office-block-32347656
  17. Nation
    https://nation.cymru/news/plaid-selects-former-am-for-senedd-by-election/
  18. Caerphilly Observer
    https://caerphilly.observer/news/1052922/caerphilly-plaid-cymru-lindsay-whittle-to-stand-in-senedd-by-election/
  19. Nation
    https://nation.cymru/news/former-mp-will-not-stand-for-labour-in-crunch-caerphilly-by-election/
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