2024 YR4

2024 YR4 is an asteroid with an estimated diameter of 53 to 67 metres (174 to 220 ft) that is classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object. From 27 January to 20 February 2025, it had an impact rating of 3 on the Torino scale, reflecting its size and an estimated probability greater than 1% that it would impact Earth on 22 December 2032. The estimated impact probability peaked at 3.1% on 18 February 2025. By 23 February, additional observations effectively ruled out 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 and lowered its Torino rating to 0. Based on all observations up to a James Webb Space Telescope observation on 11 May 2025, there is a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 22 December 2032 around 15:19 UTC, with the asteroid expected to pass at 9000±74000 km from the surface of the Moon. The asteroid was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at Río Hurtado on 27 December 2024. When additional observations increased its impact probability to greater than 1%, the first step in planetary defense responses was triggered, prompting additional data gathering using several major telescopes and leading space agencies to begin planning asteroid threat mitigation. The asteroid made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 828,800 kilometres (515,000 miles; 2.156 lunar distances) on 25 December 2024, two days before its discovery, and it will be moving away from the Sun until November 2026. Its next close approach will take place on 17 December 2028. Analysis of spectral and photometric time series suggests that 2024 YR4 is a stony S-type (most likely), L-type or K-type asteroid, with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes. A number of known asteroids, including other virtual impactors, follow orbits somewhat consistent with that of 2024 YR4.

Infobox

Discovered by

ATLAS–CHL (W68)

Discovery site

Río Hurtado, Chile

Discovery date

27 December 2024

MPC designation

2024 YR4

Minor planet category

mw- .inline, .inline dl, .inline ol, .inline ul, dl dl, dl ol, dl ul, ol dl, ol ol dd dd dd , dd dt , dd li , dt dd , dt dt , dt li , li dd dd dd , dd dt , dd li , dt dd , dt dt , dt li , li dd dd ol li NEOApollorisk-listed

Observation arc

137 days

Earliest precovery date

25 December 2024

Aphelion

4.180 AU[a]

Perihelion

mw- 0.8515 AU 0.8532 AU (2028) 0.8692 AU (2032)

Semi-major axis

2.5158 AU

Eccentricity

0.6615

Orbital period (sidereal)

3.991 yr(1457.57 days)

Mean anomaly

40.40°

Mean motion

0.2470° per day

Inclination

3.4082°

Longitude of ascending node

271.364°

Time of perihelion

22 November 2024 19 November 2028 21 November 2032 mid-2036?[b]

Argument of perihelion

134.366°

Earth MOID

0.002803 AU (419,300 km; 1.091 LD)

Jupiter MOID

1.2711 AU

Mean diameter

60±7 m

Synodic rotation period

0.32440 ± 0.00002 h (19.4640 ± 0.0012 min)

Pole ecliptic longitude

42°

Pole ecliptic latitude

−25°

Spectral type

R-type or Sa-typeS-type (most likely)L-typeK-type

Apparent magnitude

24 (13 February) 25 (26 February) 26 (14 March) 28.7 (11 May) 29.4 (2026 opposition)

Absolute magnitude (H)

24.05±0.15 (phase corrected) 23.96±0.28 (JPL)

Tables

JPL nominal distance for the 22 December 2032 14:02 UT Virtual Impactor Scenario · 2032 close approach

0.0025 AU (370,000 km; 0.97 LD)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.0025 AU (370,000 km; 0.97 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 97 thousand km

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)	uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)
0.0025 AU (370,000 km; 0.97 LD)	± 97 thousand km

2024 Dec 30

Solution

2024 Dec 30

Observationarc(in days)

2 (53 obs)

Impactprobability

1:1040 (0.096%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.73

2024 Dec 31

Solution

2024 Dec 31

Observationarc(in days)

3 (71 obs)

Impactprobability

1:920 (0.11%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.66

2025 Jan 1

Solution

2025 Jan 1

Observationarc(in days)

4 (87 obs)

Impactprobability

1:870 (0.11%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.64

2025 Jan 2

Solution

2025 Jan 2

Observationarc(in days)

6 (109 obs)

Impactprobability

1:842 (0.12%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.63

2025 Jan 3

Solution

2025 Jan 3

Observationarc(in days)

7 (120 obs)

Impactprobability

1:760 (0.13%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.61

JPL #14 2025 Jan 6

Solution

JPL #14 2025 Jan 6

Observationarc(in days)

8 (145 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.01706 AU (2.552 million km; 6.64 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 9.62 million km

Impactprobability

1:730 (0.14%)

Torinoscale

JPL #15 2025 Jan 6

Solution

JPL #15 2025 Jan 6

Observationarc(in days)

11 (158 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.01537 AU (2.299 million km; 5.98 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 9.55 million km

Impactprobability

1:710 (0.14%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.53

2025 Jan 11

Solution

2025 Jan 11

Observationarc(in days)

14 (170 obs)

Impactprobability

1:630 (0.16%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.53

JPL #27 2025 Jan 20

Solution

JPL #27 2025 Jan 20

Observationarc(in days)

26 (198 obs)

Impactprobability

1:320 (0.31%)

Torinoscale

JPL #30 2025 Jan 22

Solution

JPL #30 2025 Jan 22

Observationarc(in days)

28 (213 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00068 AU (102,000 km; 0.26 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 3.37 million km

Impactprobability

1:190 (0.52%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.93

JPL #32 2025 Jan 23

Solution

JPL #32 2025 Jan 23

Observationarc(in days)

29 (219 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00171 AU (256,000 km; 0.67 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 2.28 million km

Impactprobability

1:110 (0.91%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.69

JPL #34 2025 Jan 24

Solution

JPL #34 2025 Jan 24

Observationarc(in days)

30 (227 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00113 AU (169,000 km; 0.44 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.96 million km

Impactprobability

1:110 (0.91%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.69

JPL #35 2025 Jan 27

Solution

JPL #35 2025 Jan 27

Observationarc(in days)

33 (238 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00004564 AU (6,829 km; 0.01776 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.605 million km

Impactprobability

1:83 (1.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.57

JPL #36 2025 Jan 28

Solution

JPL #36 2025 Jan 28

Observationarc(in days)

34 (245 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00071 AU (106,000 km; 0.28 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.55 million km

Impactprobability

1:83 (1.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.56

JPL #37 2025 Jan 29

Solution

JPL #37 2025 Jan 29

Observationarc(in days)

35 (257 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00085 AU (127,000 km; 0.33 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.408 million km

Impactprobability

1:77 (1.3%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.53

JPL #39 2025 Jan 30

Solution

JPL #39 2025 Jan 30

Observationarc(in days)

36 (261 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00087 AU (130,000 km; 0.34 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.408 million km

Impactprobability

1:77 (1.3%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.53

JPL #40 2025 Jan 31

Solution

JPL #40 2025 Jan 31

Observationarc(in days)

37 (276 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00046 AU (69,000 km; 0.18 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.2 million km

Impactprobability

1:63 (1.6%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.47

JPL #41 2025 Feb 1

Solution

JPL #41 2025 Feb 1

Observationarc(in days)

38 (284 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00037 AU (55,000 km; 0.14 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.119 million km

Impactprobability

1:59 (1.7%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.43

JPL #42 2025 Feb 2

Solution

JPL #42 2025 Feb 2

Observationarc(in days)

39 (289 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00185 AU (277,000 km; 0.72 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 1.049 million km

Impactprobability

1:71 (1.4%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.52

JPL #43 2025 Feb 3

Solution

JPL #43 2025 Feb 3

Observationarc(in days)

40 (292 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00165 AU (247,000 km; 0.64 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 998,000 km

Impactprobability

1:67 (1.5%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.49

JPL #44 2025 Feb 4

Solution

JPL #44 2025 Feb 4

Observationarc(in days)

41 (294 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00151 AU (226,000 km; 0.59 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 981,000 km

Impactprobability

1:63 (1.6%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.46

JPL #45 2025 Feb 5

Solution

JPL #45 2025 Feb 5

Observationarc(in days)

42 (307 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00116 AU (174,000 km; 0.45 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 892,000 km

Impactprobability

1:53 (1.9%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.40

JPL #46 2025 Feb 6

Solution

JPL #46 2025 Feb 6

Observationarc(in days)

43 (315 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00059 AU (88,000 km; 0.23 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 819,000 km

Impactprobability

1:43 (2.3%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.31

JPL #47 2025 Feb 7

Solution

JPL #47 2025 Feb 7

Observationarc(in days)

43 (325 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00080 AU (120,000 km; 0.31 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 792,000 km

Impactprobability

1:45 (2.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.32

JPL #48 2025 Feb 8

Solution

JPL #48 2025 Feb 8

Observationarc(in days)

44 (336 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00061 AU (91,000 km; 0.24 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 764,000 km

Impactprobability

1:42 (2.4%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.29

JPL #49 2025 Feb 9

Solution

JPL #49 2025 Feb 9

Observationarc(in days)

45 (343 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 739,000 km

Impactprobability

1:45 (2.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.34

JPL #50 2025 Feb 10

Solution

JPL #50 2025 Feb 10

Observationarc(in days)

45 (347 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00112 AU (168,000 km; 0.44 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 712,000 km

Impactprobability

1:48 (2.1%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.34

JPL #51 2025 Feb 12

Solution

JPL #51 2025 Feb 12

Observationarc(in days)

45 (348 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00114 AU (171,000 km; 0.44 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 712,000 km

Impactprobability

1:48 (2.1%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.35

JPL #53 2025 Feb 13

Solution

JPL #53 2025 Feb 13

Observationarc(in days)

45 (346 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00112 AU (168,000 km; 0.44 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 712,000 km

Impactprobability

1:48 (2.1%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.34

JPL #54 2025 Feb 14

Solution

JPL #54 2025 Feb 14

Observationarc(in days)

45 (354 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 707,000 km

Impactprobability

1:45 (2.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.33

JPL #55 2025 Feb 15

Solution

JPL #55 2025 Feb 15

Observationarc(in days)

45 (363 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 707,000 km

Impactprobability

1:45 (2.2%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.33

JPL #56 2025 Feb 17

Solution

JPL #56 2025 Feb 17

Observationarc(in days)

54 (368 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00099 AU (148,000 km; 0.39 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 481,000 km

Impactprobability

1:38 (2.6%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.25

JPL #57 2025 Feb 18

Solution

JPL #57 2025 Feb 18

Observationarc(in days)

55 (370 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00082 AU (123,000 km; 0.32 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 458,000 km

Impactprobability

1:32 (3.1%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.18

JPL #58 2025 Feb 19

Solution

JPL #58 2025 Feb 19

Observationarc(in days)

56 (378 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00145 AU (217,000 km; 0.56 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 356,000 km

Impactprobability

1:95 (1.06%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.66

JPL #59 2025 Feb 19

Solution

JPL #59 2025 Feb 19

Observationarc(in days)

56 (376 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00133 AU (199,000 km; 0.52 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 379,000 km

Impactprobability

1:67 (1.5%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−0.51

JPL #60 2025 Feb 20

Solution

JPL #60 2025 Feb 20

Observationarc(in days)

57 (391 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00161 AU (241,000 km; 0.63 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 291,000 km

Impactprobability

1:370 (0.27%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.23

JPL #61 2025 Feb 21

Solution

JPL #61 2025 Feb 21

Observationarc(in days)

58 (392 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00153 AU (229,000 km; 0.60 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 287,000 km

Impactprobability

1:280 (0.36%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.11

JPL #62 2025 Feb 22

Solution

JPL #62 2025 Feb 22

Observationarc(in days)

59 (404 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00147 AU (220,000 km; 0.57 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 275,000 km

Impactprobability

1:280 (0.36%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−1.11

JPL #63 2025 Feb 23

Solution

JPL #63 2025 Feb 23

Observationarc(in days)

60 (418 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00179 AU (268,000 km; 0.70 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 207,000 km

Impactprobability

1:26,000 (0.004%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.08

JPL #64 2025 Feb 24

Solution

JPL #64 2025 Feb 24

Observationarc(in days)

61 (424 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00182 AU (272,000 km; 0.71 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 199,000 km

Impactprobability

1:59,000 (0.002%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.45

JPL #66 2025 Feb 26

Solution

JPL #66 2025 Feb 26

Observationarc(in days)

63 (428 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 193,000 km

Impactprobability

1:91,000 (0.001%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.61

JPL #67 2025 Feb 27

Solution

JPL #67 2025 Feb 27

Observationarc(in days)

63 (440 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 192,000 km

Impactprobability

1:91,000 (0.001%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.61

JPL #68 2025 Feb 28

Solution

JPL #68 2025 Feb 28

Observationarc(in days)

65 (441 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00183 AU (274,000 km; 0.71 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 192,000 km

Impactprobability

1:130,000 (0.00076%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.78

JPL #69 2025 Mar 01

Solution

JPL #69 2025 Mar 01

Observationarc(in days)

66 (442 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00182 AU (272,000 km; 0.71 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 191,000 km

Impactprobability

1:120,000 (0.00082%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−3.75

JPL #70 2025 Mar 07

Solution

JPL #70 2025 Mar 07

Observationarc(in days)

71 (444 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 176,000 km

Impactprobability

1:500,000 (0.0002%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−4.36

JPL #71 2025 Mar 08

Solution

JPL #71 2025 Mar 08

Observationarc(in days)

71 (452 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00177 AU (265,000 km; 0.69 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 167,000 km

Impactprobability

1:910,000 (0.0001%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−4.61

JPL #72 2025 Mar 11

Solution

JPL #72 2025 Mar 11

Observationarc(in days)

71 (453 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00174 AU (260,000 km; 0.68 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 159,000 km

Impactprobability

1:1,800,000 (0.000055%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−4.93

JPL #73 2025 Mar 13

Solution

JPL #73 2025 Mar 13

Observationarc(in days)

71 (460 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00175 AU (262,000 km; 0.68 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 154,000 km

Impactprobability

1:5,000,000 (0.000020%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−5.37

JPL #74 2025 Mar 18

Solution

JPL #74 2025 Mar 18

Observationarc(in days)

71 (460 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00175 AU (262,000 km; 0.68 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 154,000 km

Impactprobability

1:5,300,000 (0.000019%)

Torinoscale

Palermoscale(max)

−5.38

JPL #75 2025 Apr 1

Solution

JPL #75 2025 Apr 1

Observationarc(in days)

88 (462 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00172 AU (257,000 km; 0.67 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 118,000 km

Torinoscale

JPL #76 2025 Apr 2

Solution

JPL #76 2025 Apr 2

Observationarc(in days)

91 (473 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00174 AU (260,000 km; 0.68 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 82,600 km

Impactprobability

not applicable

Torinoscale

not applicable

Palermoscale(max)

not applicable

JPL #77 2025 Apr 3

Solution

JPL #77 2025 Apr 3

Observationarc(in days)

91 (476 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00174 AU (260,000 km; 0.68 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 82,600 km

JPL #78 2025 Jun 3

Solution

JPL #78 2025 Jun 3

Observationarc(in days)

137 (477 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)

0.00178 AU (266,000 km; 0.69 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 69,100 km

Solution	Observationarc(in days)	JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU)	uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)	Impactprobability	Torinoscale	Palermoscale(max)
2024 Dec 30	2 (53 obs)			1:1040 (0.096%)	1	−1.73
2024 Dec 31	3 (71 obs)			1:920 (0.11%)	1	−1.66
2025 Jan 1	4 (87 obs)			1:870 (0.11%)	1	−1.64
2025 Jan 2	6 (109 obs)			1:842 (0.12%)	1	−1.63
2025 Jan 3	7 (120 obs)			1:760 (0.13%)	1	−1.61
JPL 2025 Jan 6	8 (145 obs)	million km; 6.64 LD)	million km	1:730 (0.14%)	1
JPL 2025 Jan 6	11 (158 obs)	million km; 5.98 LD)	million km	1:710 (0.14%)	1	−1.53
2025 Jan 11	14 (170 obs)			1:630 (0.16%)	1	−1.53
JPL 2025 Jan 20	26 (198 obs)			1:320 (0.31%)	1
JPL 2025 Jan 22	28 (213 obs)	0.00068 AU (102,000 km; 0.26 LD)	million km	1:190 (0.52%)	1	−0.93
JPL 2025 Jan 23	29 (219 obs)	0.00171 AU (256,000 km; 0.67 LD)	million km	1:110 (0.91%)	1	−0.69
JPL 2025 Jan 24	30 (227 obs)	0.00113 AU (169,000 km; 0.44 LD)	million km	1:110 (0.91%)	1	−0.69
JPL 2025 Jan 27	33 (238 obs)	0.00004564 AU (6,829 km; 0.01776 LD)	million km	1:83 (1.2%)	3	−0.57
JPL 2025 Jan 28	34 (245 obs)	0.00071 AU (106,000 km; 0.28 LD)	million km	1:83 (1.2%)	3	−0.56
JPL 2025 Jan 29	35 (257 obs)	0.00085 AU (127,000 km; 0.33 LD)	million km	1:77 (1.3%)	3	−0.53
JPL 2025 Jan 30	36 (261 obs)	0.00087 AU (130,000 km; 0.34 LD)	million km	1:77 (1.3%)	3	−0.53
JPL 2025 Jan 31	37 (276 obs)	0.00046 AU (69,000 km; 0.18 LD)	million km	1:63 (1.6%)	3	−0.47
JPL 2025 Feb 1	38 (284 obs)	0.00037 AU (55,000 km; 0.14 LD)	million km	1:59 (1.7%)	3	−0.43
JPL 2025 Feb 2	39 (289 obs)	0.00185 AU (277,000 km; 0.72 LD)	million km	1:71 (1.4%)	3	−0.52
JPL 2025 Feb 3	40 (292 obs)	0.00165 AU (247,000 km; 0.64 LD)	± 998,000 km	1:67 (1.5%)	3	−0.49
JPL 2025 Feb 4	41 (294 obs)	0.00151 AU (226,000 km; 0.59 LD)	± 981,000 km	1:63 (1.6%)	3	−0.46
JPL 2025 Feb 5	42 (307 obs)	0.00116 AU (174,000 km; 0.45 LD)	± 892,000 km	1:53 (1.9%)	3	−0.40
JPL 2025 Feb 6	43 (315 obs)	0.00059 AU (88,000 km; 0.23 LD)	± 819,000 km	1:43 (2.3%)	3	−0.31
JPL 2025 Feb 7	43 (325 obs)	0.00080 AU (120,000 km; 0.31 LD)	± 792,000 km	1:45 (2.2%)	3	−0.32
JPL 2025 Feb 8	44 (336 obs)	0.00061 AU (91,000 km; 0.24 LD)	± 764,000 km	1:42 (2.4%)	3	−0.29
JPL 2025 Feb 9	45 (343 obs)	0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)	± 739,000 km	1:45 (2.2%)	3	−0.34
JPL 2025 Feb 10	45 (347 obs)	0.00112 AU (168,000 km; 0.44 LD)	± 712,000 km	1:48 (2.1%)	3	−0.34
JPL 2025 Feb 12	45 (348 obs)	0.00114 AU (171,000 km; 0.44 LD)	± 712,000 km	1:48 (2.1%)	3	−0.35
JPL 2025 Feb 13	45 (346 obs)	0.00112 AU (168,000 km; 0.44 LD)	± 712,000 km	1:48 (2.1%)	3	−0.34
JPL 2025 Feb 14	45 (354 obs)	0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)	± 707,000 km	1:45 (2.2%)	3	−0.33
JPL 2025 Feb 15	45 (363 obs)	0.00105 AU (157,000 km; 0.41 LD)	± 707,000 km	1:45 (2.2%)	3	−0.33
JPL 2025 Feb 17	54 (368 obs)	0.00099 AU (148,000 km; 0.39 LD)	± 481,000 km	1:38 (2.6%)	3	−0.25
JPL 2025 Feb 18	55 (370 obs)	0.00082 AU (123,000 km; 0.32 LD)	± 458,000 km	1:32 (3.1%)	3	−0.18
JPL 2025 Feb 19	56 (378 obs)	0.00145 AU (217,000 km; 0.56 LD)	± 356,000 km	1:95 (1.06%)	3	−0.66
JPL 2025 Feb 19	56 (376 obs)	0.00133 AU (199,000 km; 0.52 LD)	± 379,000 km	1:67 (1.5%)	3	−0.51
JPL 2025 Feb 20	57 (391 obs)	0.00161 AU (241,000 km; 0.63 LD)	± 291,000 km	1:370 (0.27%)	1	−1.23
JPL 2025 Feb 21	58 (392 obs)	0.00153 AU (229,000 km; 0.60 LD)	± 287,000 km	1:280 (0.36%)	1	−1.11
JPL 2025 Feb 22	59 (404 obs)	0.00147 AU (220,000 km; 0.57 LD)	± 275,000 km	1:280 (0.36%)	1	−1.11
JPL 2025 Feb 23	60 (418 obs)	0.00179 AU (268,000 km; 0.70 LD)	± 207,000 km	1:26,000 (0.004%)	0	−3.08
JPL 2025 Feb 24	61 (424 obs)	0.00182 AU (272,000 km; 0.71 LD)	± 199,000 km	1:59,000 (0.002%)	0	−3.45
JPL 2025 Feb 26	63 (428 obs)	0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)	± 193,000 km	1:91,000 (0.001%)	0	−3.61
JPL 2025 Feb 27	63 (440 obs)	0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)	± 192,000 km	1:91,000 (0.001%)	0	−3.61
JPL 2025 Feb 28	65 (441 obs)	0.00183 AU (274,000 km; 0.71 LD)	± 192,000 km	1:130,000 (0.00076%)	0	−3.78
JPL 2025 Mar 01	66 (442 obs)	0.00182 AU (272,000 km; 0.71 LD)	± 191,000 km	1:120,000 (0.00082%)	0	−3.75
JPL 2025 Mar 07	71 (444 obs)	0.00180 AU (269,000 km; 0.70 LD)	± 176,000 km	1:500,000 (0.0002%)	0	−4.36
JPL 2025 Mar 08	71 (452 obs)	0.00177 AU (265,000 km; 0.69 LD)	± 167,000 km	1:910,000 (0.0001%)	0	−4.61
JPL 2025 Mar 11	71 (453 obs)	0.00174 AU (260,000 km; 0.68 LD)	± 159,000 km	1:1,800,000 (0.000055%)	0	−4.93
JPL 2025 Mar 13	71 (460 obs)	0.00175 AU (262,000 km; 0.68 LD)	± 154,000 km	1:5,000,000 (0.000020%)	0	−5.37
JPL 2025 Mar 18	71 (460 obs)	0.00175 AU (262,000 km; 0.68 LD)	± 154,000 km	1:5,300,000 (0.000019%)	0	−5.38

JPL nominal distance from the Moon at 22 December 2032 15:17–15:21 UT Moon Impact Scenario · 2032 close approach › Possible impact on the Moon

0.000091 AU (13,600 km; 0.035 LD)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000091 AU (13,600 km; 0.035 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 97 thousand km

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)	uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)
0.000091 AU (13,600 km; 0.035 LD)	± 97 thousand km

JPL #30 2025 Jan 22

Solution

JPL #30 2025 Jan 22

Observationarc(in days)

28 (213 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00114 AU (171,000 km; 0.44 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 3300000 km

JPL #32 2025 Jan 23

Solution

JPL #32 2025 Jan 23

Observationarc(in days)

29 (219 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00000754 AU (1,128 km; 0.00293 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 2200000 km

JPL #63 2025 Feb 23

Solution

JPL #63 2025 Feb 23

Observationarc(in days)

60 (418 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.0000786 AU (11,760 km; 0.0306 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 220000 km

JPL #64 2025 Feb 24

Solution

JPL #64 2025 Feb 24

Observationarc(in days)

61 (424 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000107 AU (16,000 km; 0.042 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 212000 km

JPL #66 2025 Feb 26

Solution

JPL #66 2025 Feb 26

Observationarc(in days)

63 (428 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.0000902 AU (13,490 km; 0.0351 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 205000 km

JPL #67 2025 Feb 27

Solution

JPL #67 2025 Feb 27

Observationarc(in days)

63 (440 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.0000910 AU (13,610 km; 0.0354 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 205000 km

JPL #68 2025 Feb 28

Solution

JPL #68 2025 Feb 28

Observationarc(in days)

65 (441 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000126 AU (18,800 km; 0.049 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 205000 km

JPL #69 2025 Mar 01

Solution

JPL #69 2025 Mar 01

Observationarc(in days)

66 (442 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000113 AU (16,900 km; 0.044 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 204000 km

JPL #70 2025 Mar 07

Solution

JPL #70 2025 Mar 07

Observationarc(in days)

71 (444 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000091 AU (13,600 km; 0.035 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 187000 km

JPL #71 2025 Mar 08

Solution

JPL #71 2025 Mar 08

Observationarc(in days)

71 (452 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.000054 AU (8,100 km; 0.021 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 178000 km

JPL #72 2025 Mar 11

Solution

JPL #72 2025 Mar 11

Observationarc(in days)

71 (453 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00002256 AU (3,375 km; 0.00878 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 162000 km

JPL #73 2025 Mar 13

Solution

JPL #73 2025 Mar 13

Observationarc(in days)

71 (460 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00003719 AU (5,564 km; 0.01447 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 162000 km

JPL #74 2025 Mar 18

Solution

JPL #74 2025 Mar 18

Observationarc(in days)

71 (460 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00003772 AU (5,643 km; 0.01468 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 162000 km

JPL #75 2025 Apr 1

Solution

JPL #75 2025 Apr 1

Observationarc(in days)

88 (462 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00000798 AU (1,194 km; 0.00311 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 66000 km

JPL #76 2025 Apr 2

Solution

JPL #76 2025 Apr 2

Observationarc(in days)

91 (473 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00002044 AU (3,058 km; 0.00795 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 83000 km

JPL #77 2025 Apr 3

Solution

JPL #77 2025 Apr 3

Observationarc(in days)

91 (476 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00002067 AU (3,092 km; 0.00804 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 83000 km

JPL #78 2025 Jun 3

Solution

JPL #78 2025 Jun 3

Observationarc(in days)

137 (477 obs)

JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)

0.00007140 AU (10,681 km; 0.02779 LD)

uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)

± 74000 km

Solution	Observationarc(in days)	JPL Horizonsnominal lunardistance (AU)	uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)
JPL 2025 Jan 22	28 (213 obs)	0.00114 AU (171,000 km; 0.44 LD)	± 3300000 km
JPL 2025 Jan 23	29 (219 obs)	0.00000754 AU (1,128 km; 0.00293 LD)	± 2200000 km
JPL 2025 Feb 23	60 (418 obs)	0.0000786 AU (11,760 km; 0.0306 LD)	± 220000 km
JPL 2025 Feb 24	61 (424 obs)	0.000107 AU (16,000 km; 0.042 LD)	± 212000 km
JPL 2025 Feb 26	63 (428 obs)	0.0000902 AU (13,490 km; 0.0351 LD)	± 205000 km
JPL 2025 Feb 27	63 (440 obs)	0.0000910 AU (13,610 km; 0.0354 LD)	± 205000 km
JPL 2025 Feb 28	65 (441 obs)	0.000126 AU (18,800 km; 0.049 LD)	± 205000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 01	66 (442 obs)	0.000113 AU (16,900 km; 0.044 LD)	± 204000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 07	71 (444 obs)	0.000091 AU (13,600 km; 0.035 LD)	± 187000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 08	71 (452 obs)	0.000054 AU (8,100 km; 0.021 LD)	± 178000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 11	71 (453 obs)	0.00002256 AU (3,375 km; 0.00878 LD)	± 162000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 13	71 (460 obs)	0.00003719 AU (5,564 km; 0.01447 LD)	± 162000 km
JPL 2025 Mar 18	71 (460 obs)	0.00003772 AU (5,643 km; 0.01468 LD)	± 162000 km
JPL 2025 Apr 1	88 (462 obs)	0.00000798 AU (1,194 km; 0.00311 LD)	± 66000 km
JPL 2025 Apr 2	91 (473 obs)	0.00002044 AU (3,058 km; 0.00795 LD)	± 83000 km
JPL 2025 Apr 3	91 (476 obs)	0.00002067 AU (3,092 km; 0.00804 LD)	± 83000 km
JPL 2025 Jun 3	137 (477 obs)	0.00007140 AU (10,681 km; 0.02779 LD)	± 74000 km

References

Between 2025–2032, the farthest the asteroid will get from Earth will be on 7 November 2030 when the asteroid will be ne
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272030-11-07%27&STOP_TIME=%272030-11-08%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,20,39%27
By mid-2036 the uncertainty in the asteroid's position along its orbit is ± 230 million km (1.5 AU) or roughly 10% of th
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272036-07-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272036-07-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27
A virtual impactor is a known risk-listed asteroid with at least a 1-in-10-billion chance of impacting the Earth over th
C-type asteroids are about 75% of the asteroid population, S-type asteroids are about 17%, and M-type asteroids (iron–ni
On the virtual impactor date of 2047-Dec-22, the nominal position of the asteroid is 0.9AU from the Sun and 0.5AU from E
https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2024YR4&oc=500&y0=2047&m0=12&d0=22&h0=01&mi0=12&y1=2047&m1=12&d1=22&h1=01&mi1=12&ti=1.0&tiu=days
The circumference of a circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 2.5 AU would be 2π(2.5 AU) ≈ 16 AU.
According to JPL solution #78, the nominal close approach will occur at 8:36 TDB, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 1 h 27 m
ESA also lists a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 1.5 hours (1-sigma = 28 min) for the 2032 Earth closest approach time.
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=closeapp&des=2024YR4
The largest potentially hazardous asteroid discovered in 2024 is 2024 YU4, with an assumed diameter near 500 m (1,600 ft
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?sum=1&des=2024YK11
The 3-sigma value for JPL Horizons uncertainty region would not overlap Earth's position.
The uncertainty region is larger at the 14:02 UT Virtual Impactor Scenario because it is about 5 hours after the nominal
JPL #30 with a 28-day observation arc had an uncertainty of almost ± 3 days for the Earth close approach date in 2032.
JPL #32 The nominal orbit is 1,129 km from the center of the Moon, which is 65% of the Moon's radius of 1,737 km.
JPL #35: The nominal 14:17 UT Earth approach is 6829 km (1.07 R🜨) and Earth has a radius of 6378 km.
2024 YR4 could not be observed at that time because of proximity to the full moon
A 1-sigma value for JPL Horizons uncertainty region would not overlap Earth's position.
On 19 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased from 0.8 to 1.6 meaning the nominal orbit became a poorer match for th
On 20 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased from 1.6 to 2.5.
On 23 February 2025, the Sigma VI value increased to 3.96.
As of JPL #70 on 7 March 2025, the impact risk in 2047 is now technically greater with a palermo rating of −4.3 and a 1-
On 13 March 2025, the Sigma VI value increased to 5.2.
The Earth close approach uncertainty region decreased from 83 000 km to 69 000 km.
JPL #64 The minimum possible Moon distance is 1,013 km, which is 58% of Moon's radius of 1,737 km.
JPL #75 The nominal orbit is 1,195 km from the center of the Moon, which is 69% of the Moon's radius of 1,737 km.
https://web.archive.org/web/20250401195619/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024YR4&view=OPC
JPL #78: 9000±74000 km from the surface of the Moon.
Math: 2.512(26 − 6.5) = 63151385
The 25 December 2024 observation has a high RMS of 1.6 arcseconds in right ascension and 0.7 arcseconds in declination.
"2024 YR4"
https://web.archive.org/web/20250217140556/https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2024+YR4
Minor Planet Electronic Circular
https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K24/K24YE0.html
"JPL Small-Body Database Lookup: (2024 YR4)"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20YR4&view=OPC
"2028 Perihelion"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272028-Nov-18%2021:00%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Nov-19%2003:00%27&STEP_SIZE=%2710%20min%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27
"2032 Perihelion"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-Nov-20%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-Nov-22%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27
"2036 Perihelion estimate"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272036-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272036-11-01%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20month%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,39%27
"JWST Observations of Potential Impactor 2024 YR4 (March 27, 2025)"
https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/gallery/YR4_memo_final_27mar25.pdf
Ondrejov Asteroid Photometry Project
https://www.asu.cas.cz/~ppravec/newres.txt
arXiv
https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05694
"2024 YR4"
https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/index.shtml
"Physical characterization of 2024 YR4"
https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0262.pdf
"Visual Magnitude"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272025-02-13%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-03-14%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%279%27
"2026 Opposition"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272026-Apr-21%27&STOP_TIME=%272026-Apr-22%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%279,19,20,23%27
The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/jan/30/asteroid-spotted-chance-colliding-with-earth-2032
The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth.html
"International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Potential Asteroid Impact Notification"
https://web.archive.org/web/20250130100841/https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf
Research Notes of the AAS
https://doi.org/10.3847%2F2515-5172%2Fadb60e
"New- And Old-Style Minor Planet Designations"
https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/info/DesDoc.html
Space.com
https://www.space.com/180-foot-asteroid-1-in-83-chance-hitting-Earth-2032
Center for Near-Earth Object Studies
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4
Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/search-for-asteroids?tab=possimp&des=2024YR4
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
https://ssd-api.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/sentry.html
Nature
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.374..785B
See this JPL Horizons run.
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/api/horizons.api?format=text&COMMAND=%272024%20YR4%27&START_TIME=%272020/11/1%2012:0%27&STOP_TIME=%272034/5/4%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20month%27&MAKE_EPHEM=%27YES%27&EPHEM_TYPE=%27ELEMENTS%27&CSV_FORMAT=%27YES%27&OUT_UNITS=%27AU-D%27%27&center=10
skyandtelescope.org
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/
"2024 YR4 uncertainty (RNG_3sigma in km) for 1 March 2025"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272025-03-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272025-03-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27
"2024 YR4 uncertainty in mid-2034"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272034-07-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272034-07-02%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2739%27
The Horizons output points out that "results can also be optimistic for times far from the solution epoch, particularly
NEODyS-2
https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.2&n=2024%20YR4
"JPL Horizons: 2024 YR4 geocentric distance and uncertainty at Virtual Impactor time of 22 Dec 2047 01:12 UT"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272047-12-22%2001:12%27&STOP_TIME=%272047-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2719,20,39%27
From RA 19h, declination −12°; see this Horizons simulation.
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/api/horizons.api?format=text&COMMAND=%272024%20YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032/12/1%2012:0%27&STOP_TIME=%272032/12/24%27&STEP_SIZE=%271%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%271,29%27
EarthSky
https://earthsky.org/space/asteroid-2024-yr4-odds-hit-earth-torino-scale-2032/
Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre
https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_no_longer_poses_significant_impact_risk
"JPL Horizons: 2024 YR4 geocentric distance and uncertainty at Virtual Impactor time of 22 Dec 2032 14:02 UT"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2014:02%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27
Center for Near-Earth Object Studies
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/neo_groups.html
"NASA's Webb Observations Update Asteroid 2024 YR4's Lunar Impact Odds"
https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/06/05/nasas-webb-observations-update-asteroid-2024-yr4s-lunar-impact-odds/
Find_Orb
https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/yr4/moon.png
"2024 YR4 Moon distance and uncertainty for JPL #78 closest approach time"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:08:54.5%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:08:55.5%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27
"2024 YR4 Moon distance and uncertainty at 22 Dec 2032 15:19 UT"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272032-12-22%2015:19%27&STOP_TIME=%272032-12-23%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27
LiveScience
https://www.livescience.com/space/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say
The Astrophysical Journal Letters
https://doi.org/10.3847%2F2041-8213%2Fadfa8b
Space.com
https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-hit-the-moon-instead-of-us-scientists-say
NewScientist
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2467730-theres-a-tiny-chance-the-asteroid-headed-for-earth-could-hit-the-moon/
Center for Near-Earth Object Studies
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html
Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre
http://neo.ssa.esa.int/o/PSDB-portlet/ephemerides?des=2024YR4&oc=500&t0=2025-03-23T00:00Z&t1=2025-03-23T00:00Z&ti=1&tiu=days
"2024 YR4 Astrometry at IAWN"
https://web.archive.org/web/20250215041905/https://iawn.net/documents/20250204_20th_Vienna/ESA-S2P-PD-HO-0261_1_0_2024_YR4_Astrometry_at_IAWN.pdf
"Visit Status Report for JWST 9239"
https://www.stsci.edu/jwst-program-info/visits/?program=9239
Minor Planets Mailing List
https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_torino_scale_3/110849089
NEODyS-2
https://newton.spacedys.com/~neodys2/mpcobs/2024YR4.rwo
International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) Mailing List
https://groups.io/g/IOTAoccultations/topic/planoccult_re/110928601
"[Planoccult] Re: [IOTAoccultations] 2024 YR4 occultation on Feb 6 and later"
https://groups.io/g/IOTAoccultations/topic/111125999#msg81657
"2028 Opposition"
https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272024+YR4%27&START_TIME=%272028-Jul-19%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Jul-20%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20hour%27&QUANTITIES=%279,19,20,23%27
Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-asteroid-2024-yr24-strike-earth-in-2032/