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2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Before the election, most news organizations considered Virginia a likely win for Harris. This was the first presidential election in which both major party candidates received more than 2 million votes in Virginia. On election day, Harris won Virginia with 51 % of the vote, carrying the state by a margin of 5 %, similar to the 2016 results, albeit slightly wider. In 2016, Virginia U . Senator Tim Kaine was the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Kaine also won by a slightly larger 9 percentage point margin in the concurrent 2024 U . Senate election in Virginia. Harris became the first Democratic nominee to win Virginia while losing the nationwide popular vote since 1924, a century earlier. Meanwhile, neighboring West Virginia gave Trump 70% of the vote, with the two states differing by 48 percentage points in margin. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and the first Republican to do so since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900. Virginia is the only former Confederate state which Trump never carried in any of his three presidential campaigns. Although Virginia swung rightward in 2024, it trended leftward and voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation, compared to 5 percentage points in 2020, and 3 percentage points in 2016. This was also the first time a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote won an absolute majority of the vote in Virginia since 1924. This election confirmed Virginia's status as a blue state. Virginia voted for the loser of the popular vote for the first time since 2000, and the loser of both the electoral vote and popular vote since 1996. This was similar to how Florida in 2024 voted for Trump by over 13%, after Florida in 2020 backed Trump despite him losing both the electoral vote and popular vote.

Infobox

Turnout
70 % (4 pp)
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
13
Popular vote
2,333,778
Percentage
51 %

Tables

Virginia Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
317,329
%
88
Delegates
99
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
⁦28,599
%
7
Delegates
0
Dean Phillips
Dean Phillips
Candidate
Dean Phillips
Votes
⁦12,586
%
3
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
358,514
%
100%
Delegates
99
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
317,329
88
99
Marianne Williamson
⁦28,599
7
0
Dean Phillips
⁦12,586
3
0
Total
358,514
100%
99
Virginia Republican primary, March 5, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
440,416
Percentage
62 %
Actual delegate count
39
Actual delegate count
3
Actual delegate count
42
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley
Candidate
Nikki Haley
Votes
244,586
Percentage
34 %
Actual delegate count
6
Actual delegate count
6
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
7,494
Percentage
1 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
3,384
Percentage
0 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
2,503
Percentage
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Votes
853
Percentage
0 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
699,236
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
45
Actual delegate count
3
Actual delegate count
48
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
440,416
62 %
39
3
42
Nikki Haley
244,586
34 %
6
6
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
7,494
1 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
3,384
0 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
2,503
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
853
0 %
Total:
699,236
100 %
45
3
48
· General election › Predictions
Likely D
Likely D
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely D
As of
June 12, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Likely D
As of
April 26, 2023
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely D
As of
August 27, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely D
As of
September 10, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Solid D
As of
September 15, 2024
Lean D
Lean D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Lean D
As of
August 18, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
538
Ranking
Likely D
As of
August 23, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Likely D
As of
October 6, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
YouGov
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 16, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Likely D
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
June 12, 2024
Inside Elections
Likely D
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
August 27, 2024
The Economist
Likely D
September 10, 2024
CNalysis
Solid D
September 15, 2024
CNN
Lean D
August 18, 2024
538
Likely D
August 23, 2024
NBC News
Likely D
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Safe D
October 16, 2024
Split Ticket
Likely D
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 2 - November 1, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
41 %
Undecided
9 %
Margin
Harris +8 %
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
43 %
Undecided
6 %
Margin
Harris +6 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
43 %
Undecided
7 %
Margin
Harris +6 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
50 %
Donald Trump Republican
45 %
Undecided
4 %
Margin
Harris +5 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
49 %
Dates updated
43 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
6 %
Donald Trump Republican
Harris +6 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 2 - November 1, 2024
November 4, 2024
49 %
41 %
9 %
Harris +8 %
538
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
49 %
43 %
6 %
Harris +6 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
49 %
43 %
7 %
Harris +6 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
50 %
45 %
4 %
Harris +5 %
Average
49 %
43 %
6 %
Harris +6 %
· General election › Polling
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
2,202 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
3%
Research Co.
Research Co.
Poll source
Research Co.
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2024
Sample size
450 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
4%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 2–28, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
54%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
–
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 24–25, 2024
Sample size
1,014 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
2,027 (A)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
53%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
3%
2,015 (LV)
2,015 (LV)
Poll source
2,015 (LV)
Date(s) administered
53%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
3%
Quantus Insights (R)
Quantus Insights (R)
Poll source
Quantus Insights (R)
Date(s) administered
October 22−24, 2024
Sample size
725 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
Braun Research
Braun Research
Poll source
Braun Research
Date(s) administered
October 19−23, 2024
Sample size
1,004 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
9%
1,004 (LV)
1,004 (LV)
Poll source
1,004 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
43%
Margin of error
8%
Christopher Newport University
Christopher Newport University
Poll source
Christopher Newport University
Date(s) administered
September 28 − October 4, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Other / Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 22−24, 2024
Sample size
860 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
4%
53%
53%
Poll source
53%
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 9−18, 2024
Sample size
899 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
September 19−22, 2024
Sample size
1,144 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
5%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 19 – September 17, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
55%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
–
Research America Inc.
Research America Inc.
Poll source
Research America Inc.
Date(s) administered
September 3−9, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (A)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
10%
756 (LV)
756 (LV)
Poll source
756 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 4 %
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
46%
Kamala Harris Democratic
6%
Washington Post/Schar School
Washington Post/Schar School
Poll source
Washington Post/Schar School
Date(s) administered
September 4–8, 2024
Sample size
1,005 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Other / Undecided
6%
1,005 (LV)
1,005 (LV)
Poll source
1,005 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
43%
Margin of error
6%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 8, 2024
Sample size
873 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
6%
Quantus Insights (R)
Quantus Insights (R)
Poll source
Quantus Insights (R)
Date(s) administered
August 20–22, 2024
Sample size
629 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
9%
Roanoke College
Roanoke College
Poll source
Roanoke College
Date(s) administered
August 12–16, 2024
Sample size
691 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
10%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
July 14–15, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Poll source
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Date(s) administered
July 14–15, 2024
Sample size
301 (RV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
13%
265 (LV)
265 (LV)
Poll source
265 (LV)
Date(s) administered
43%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Poll source
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Date(s) administered
July 12–13, 2024
Sample size
617 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Other / Undecided
14%
544 (LV)
544 (LV)
Poll source
544 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
42%
Margin of error
12%
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
July 9–12, 2024
Sample size
661 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
8%
661 (LV)
661 (LV)
Poll source
661 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 4 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
44%
Kamala Harris Democratic
7%
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
July 6–11, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
6%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
2,202 (LV)
± 2 %
51%
46%
3%
Research Co.
November 2–3, 2024
450 (LV)
± 4 %
51%
45%
4%
ActiVote
October 2–28, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
54%
46%
–
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 24–25, 2024
1,014 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
46%
6%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
2,027 (A)
–
53%
44%
3%
2,015 (LV)
53%
44%
3%
Quantus Insights (R)
October 22−24, 2024
725 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
48%
3%
Braun Research
October 19−23, 2024
1,004 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
42%
9%
1,004 (LV)
49%
43%
8%
Christopher Newport University
September 28 − October 4, 2024
800 (LV)
± 4 %
52%
41%
7%
Emerson College
September 22−24, 2024
860 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
44%
4%
53%
46%
1%
Morning Consult
September 9−18, 2024
899 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
44%
5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
September 19−22, 2024
1,144 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
46%
5%
ActiVote
August 19 – September 17, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
55%
45%
–
Research America Inc.
September 3−9, 2024
1,000 (A)
± 3 %
45%
45%
10%
756 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
46%
6%
Washington Post/Schar School
September 4–8, 2024
1,005 (RV)
± 3 %
51%
43%
6%
1,005 (LV)
51%
43%
6%
Morning Consult
August 30 – September 8, 2024
873 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
42%
6%
August 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Quantus Insights (R)
August 20–22, 2024
629 (RV)
± 4 %
47%
44%
9%
August 19–22, 2024
Democratic National Convention
Roanoke College
August 12–16, 2024
691 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
44%
10%
August 6, 2024
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024
Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024
Republican National Convention
Emerson College
July 14–15, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3 %
45%
47%
8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
July 14–15, 2024
301 (RV)
–
43%
44%
13%
265 (LV)
43%
47%
10%
July 13, 2024
attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
July 12–13, 2024
617 (RV)
± 3 %
45%
41%
14%
544 (LV)
46%
42%
12%
New York Times/Siena College
July 9–12, 2024
661 (RV)
± 4 %
48%
44%
8%
661 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
44%
7%
SoCal Strategies (R)
July 6–11, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 2 %
47%
47%
6%

References

  1. Despite both Virginia and Florida backing Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama twice, the two have diverg
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  4. "Other" with 4%
  5. "Someone else" with 3%
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. "Other candidate" with 3%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  9. "Other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  10. "Would not vote" with 1%
  11. "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
  12. "Another candidate" with 5%
  13. "Another candidate" with 4%
  14. "Other" with 1%
  15. "Someone else" with 1 %
  16. Claudia De La Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  17. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  18. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Refused" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  20. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
Image
Source: —
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