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2024 United States presidential election in Texas

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Texas

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats. Texas was considered by some pollsters and experts to be potentially in play, as the state had not backed a Republican for president by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012. This increased competitiveness was largely explained by the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some elections, namely in the closely-contested 2018 U . Senate race and the 2020 U . presidential election, which saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip to the Democratic candidate for the first time in decades. However, in the 2020 state elections, predominantly Hispanic South Texas shifted significantly Republican, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms. In 2024, Trump went on to win Texas by a margin of over 1 million votes, the largest margin of victory in the state in 2 decades in terms of absolute vote count (although Harris' 42 % of the vote did exceed the Democratic vote percentage in the 2012 and 2004 elections within those 2 decades). Trump’s 13 % margin was significantly greater than his single-digit margins in 2016 and 2020. Trump significantly outperformed his polling averages in the state and became the first presidential candidate to win Texas by double digits since 2012, reversing the trend towards Democrats that Texas had exhibited in the two previous presidential elections. According to exit polls, 55% of Latinos in the state voted for Trump. This marked the first time a Republican candidate won a majority of both Asian and Latino voters in Texas, a feat that even former Governor George W. Bush did not achieve. Trump carried all but two Texas counties located on the Mexico–United States border (El Paso County and Presidio County), and most of these border counties had some of the largest swings in the country, some shifting upwards of 20% to the right. Trump made his largest county gain in the country in 95% Hispanic Maverick County, which swung 28% to the right. Trump also won 97 % Hispanic Starr County, the most Hispanic county in the country, the first time a Republican won the county since 1892. Harris's total of 12 counties won was the least for any Democrat in the state since George McGovern in 1972. Trump became the first presidential candidate to receive over 6 million votes in Texas, setting a record for the most votes received by a candidate in any election in the state, as well as the largest vote total ever received by a Republican presidential candidate in any state. Greater Houston and the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex also flipped back to supporting Trump after voting for Joe Biden in 2020.

Infobox

Turnout
61 % (of registered voters) 5 pp) 49 % (of voting age population)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
40
Popular vote
6,393,597
Percentage
56 %

Tables

2024 Texas Democratic primary · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
831,247
%
84
Delegates
244
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
43,667
%
4
Delegates
0
Armando Perez-Serrato
Armando Perez-Serrato
Candidate
Armando Perez-Serrato
Votes
27,473
%
2
Delegates
0
Dean Phillips
Dean Phillips
Candidate
Dean Phillips
Votes
26,473
%
2
Delegates
0
Gabriel Cornejo
Gabriel Cornejo
Candidate
Gabriel Cornejo
Votes
17,196
%
1
Delegates
0
Cenk Uygur
Cenk Uygur
Candidate
Cenk Uygur
Votes
16,100
%
1
Delegates
0
Frankie Lozada
Frankie Lozada
Candidate
Frankie Lozada
Votes
11,311
%
1
Delegates
0
Star Locke
Star Locke
Candidate
Star Locke
Votes
8,602
%
0
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
982,069
%
100%
Delegates
244
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
831,247
84
244
Marianne Williamson
43,667
4
0
Armando Perez-Serrato
27,473
2
0
Dean Phillips
26,473
2
0
Gabriel Cornejo
17,196
1
0
Cenk Uygur
16,100
1
0
Frankie Lozada
11,311
1
0
Star Locke
8,602
0
0
Total
982,069
100%
244
Texas Republican primary, March 5, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
1,808,269
Percentage
77 %
Actual delegate count
161
Actual delegate count
161
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley
Candidate
Nikki Haley
Votes
405,472
Percentage
17 %
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
45,568
Percentage
1 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
36,302
Percentage
1 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
10,582
Percentage
0 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
8,938
Percentage
0 %
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Votes
2,964
Percentage
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Votes
2,585
Percentage
0 %
David Stuckenberg
David Stuckenberg
Candidate
David Stuckenberg
Votes
2,339
Percentage
0 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
2,323,019
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
161
Actual delegate count
161
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
1,808,269
77 %
161
161
Nikki Haley
405,472
17 %
Uncommitted
45,568
1 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
36,302
1 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
10,582
0 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
8,938
0 %
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
2,964
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
2,585
0 %
David Stuckenberg
2,339
0 %
Total:
2,323,019
100 %
161
161
· General election › Predictions
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely R
As of
August 27, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Likely R
As of
August 29, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely R
As of
September 25, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 4, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid R
As of
January 14, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely R
As of
June 13, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
538
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 5, 2024
Lean R
Lean R
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 4, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 6, 2024
Lean R
Lean R
Source
YouGov
Ranking
Lean R
As of
October 16, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Likely R
August 27, 2024
Inside Elections
Likely R
August 29, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Likely R
October 4, 2024
CNN
Solid R
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Likely R
June 13, 2024
538
Likely R
October 5, 2024
CNalysis
Lean R
November 4, 2024
NBC News
Likely R
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Lean R
October 16, 2024
Split Ticket
Likely R
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 18 – November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
44 %
Donald Trump Republican
51 %
Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
43 %
Donald Trump Republican
51 %
Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
44 %
Donald Trump Republican
51 %
Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through October 29, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
44 %
Donald Trump Republican
51 %
Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
44 %
Dates updated
51 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
4 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +7 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 18 – November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
44 %
51 %
3 %
Trump +7 %
538
through November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
43 %
51 %
4 %
Trump +7 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
44 %
51 %
4 %
Trump +7 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through October 29, 2024
November 3, 2024
44 %
51 %
4 %
Trump +7 %
Average
44 %
51 %
4 %
Trump +7 %
· General election › Polling
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
2,434 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 22−31, 2024
Sample size
2,120 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / undecided
3%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 21−27, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / undecided
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 23−26, 2024
Sample size
1,180 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
41%
Other / undecided
7%
1,180 (LV)
1,180 (LV)
Poll source
1,180 (LV)
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
42%
Margin of error
6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 24–25, 2024
Sample size
1,002 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
6%
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
6,526 (A)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Other / undecided
2%
6,473 (LV)
6,473 (LV)
Poll source
6,473 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
2%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 18−21, 2024
Sample size
815 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
1%
53%
53%
Poll source
53%
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
1%
Rose Institute/YouGov
Rose Institute/YouGov
Poll source
Rose Institute/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 7–17, 2024
Sample size
1,108 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
7%
1,108 (RV)
1,108 (RV)
Poll source
1,108 (RV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
45%
Margin of error
5%
1,075 (LV)
1,075 (LV)
Poll source
1,075 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
46%
Margin of error
3%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 26 − October 16, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 6−15, 2024
Sample size
2,048 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
4%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
October 3–7, 2024
Sample size
1,365 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
2%
1,186 (LV)
1,186 (LV)
Poll source
1,186 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
53%
Margin of error
46%
Donald Trump Republican
1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Poll source
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Date(s) administered
October 2–6, 2024
Sample size
811 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / undecided
5%
775 (LV)
775 (LV)
Poll source
775 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
45%
Margin of error
5%
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
September 29 – October 6, 2024
Sample size
617 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
6%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s) administered
September 25–27, 2024
Sample size
779 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / undecided
3%
53%
53%
Poll source
53%
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
1%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
September 25–26, 2024
Sample size
759 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
3%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 22−24, 2024
Sample size
950 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
3%
52%
52%
Poll source
52%
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
1%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 7−24, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 9−18, 2024
Sample size
2,716 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
4%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 8, 2024
Sample size
2,940 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / undecided
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 3–5, 2024
Sample size
845 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / undecided
4%
51%
51%
Poll source
51%
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
1%
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
August 23–31, 2024
Sample size
1,200 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
7%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 14–31, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
54 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45 %
Other / undecided
Quantus Insights (R)
Quantus Insights (R)
Poll source
Quantus Insights (R)
Date(s) administered
August 29–30, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / undecided
9%
52%
52%
Poll source
52%
Date(s) administered
44%
Sample size
4%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
August 21–22, 2024
Sample size
725 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / undecided
6%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
July 31 – August 13, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Other / undecided
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
January 11–24, 2024
Sample size
1,500 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
39%
Other / undecided
9%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Poll source
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Date(s) administered
May 8–17, 2023
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Kamala Harris Democratic
39%
Other / undecided
15%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Other / undecided
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
2,434 (LV)
± 2 %
55%
44%
1%
Morning Consult
October 22−31, 2024
2,120 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
45%
3%
ActiVote
October 21−27, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
55%
45%
New York Times/Siena College
October 23−26, 2024
1,180 (RV)
± 3 %
52%
41%
7%
1,180 (LV)
52%
42%
6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 24–25, 2024
1,002 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
44%
6%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
6,526 (A)
51%
47%
2%
6,473 (LV)
51%
47%
2%
Emerson College
October 18−21, 2024
815 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
46%
1%
53%
46%
1%
Rose Institute/YouGov
October 7–17, 2024
1,108 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
44%
7%
1,108 (RV)
50%
45%
5%
1,075 (LV)
51%
46%
3%
ActiVote
September 26 − October 16, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
56%
44%
Morning Consult
October 6−15, 2024
2,048 (LV)
± 2 %
50%
46%
4%
Marist College
October 3–7, 2024
1,365 (RV)
± 3 %
52%
46%
2%
1,186 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
46%
1%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
October 2–6, 2024
811 (RV)
± 3 %
50%
45%
5%
775 (LV)
50%
45%
5%
New York Times/Siena College
September 29 – October 6, 2024
617 (LV)
± 5 %
50%
44%
6%
RMG Research
September 25–27, 2024
779 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
45%
3%
53%
46%
1%
Public Policy Polling (D)
September 25–26, 2024
759 (RV)
± 3 %
51%
46%
3%
Emerson College
September 22−24, 2024
950 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
46%
3%
52%
47%
1%
ActiVote
September 7−24, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
54%
46%
Morning Consult
September 9−18, 2024
2,716 (LV)
± 2 %
50%
46%
4%
Morning Consult
August 30 – September 8, 2024
2,940 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
43%
5%
Emerson College
September 3–5, 2024
845 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
46%
4%
51%
48%
1%
YouGov
August 23–31, 2024
1,200 (RV)
± 2 %
49%
44%
7%
ActiVote
August 14–31, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
54 %
45 %
Quantus Insights (R)
August 29–30, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
42%
9%
52%
44%
4%
August 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)
August 21–22, 2024
725 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
44%
6%
August 19–22, 2024
Democratic National Convention
ActiVote
July 31 – August 13, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
53%
47%
August 6, 2024
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024
Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024
Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024
Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
YouGov
January 11–24, 2024
1,500 (RV)
± 2 %
52%
39%
9%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
May 8–17, 2023
1,000 (RV)
± 2 %
46%
39%
15%

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. "Other" with 1%
  4. "Someone else" with 1%
  5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. "Other" with 7%
  7. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  8. "Another candidate" with 2%
  9. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. "Someone else"
  11. "Someone else" with 3%
  12. "Other candidate" with 3%
  13. "Would not vote" with 4%
  14. "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  15. "Someone else" with 9%
  16. "Someone else" with 6%
  17. "Someone else" with 7%
  18. "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  19. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  20. "Someone else" with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
Image
Source:
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