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2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census. Pennsylvania held the largest electoral prize of all major swing states in 2024, with 19 electoral votes. As such, it was generally forecasted that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency. Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election. Pennsylvania was the tipping-point state in the election, providing Trump the 270th electoral vote. Pennsylvania voted 0 % to the right of the nation, while Michigan voted the closest to the nation, voting 0 % to the nation's left. Trump won Pennsylvania with 50 % of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48 %, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1 % and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won over 50% of the vote. Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Auditor General. Except for the Senate race, all 2024 Pennsylvania Republican statewide candidates won over 50% of the vote. Trump received more than 3 million votes, the most cast for any candidate in Pennsylvania history.

Infobox

Turnout
76 % 0 pp
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
19
Popular vote
3,543,308
Percentage
50 %

Tables

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 23, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
953,916
%
87
Delegates
159
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
69,765
%
6
Delegates
0
Write-in votes
Write-in votes
Candidate
Write-in votes
Votes
61,136
%
5
Delegates
—
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
1,084,817
%
100%
Delegates
159
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
953,916
87
159
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
69,765
6
0
Write-in votes
61,136
5
—
Total
1,084,817
100%
159
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 23, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
794,048
Percentage
83 %
Actual delegate count
16
Actual delegate count
46
Actual delegate count
67
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
158,672
Percentage
16 %
Unprojected delegates:
Unprojected delegates:
Candidate
Unprojected delegates:
Percentage
5
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
952,720
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
16
Actual delegate count
51
Actual delegate count
67
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
794,048
83 %
16
46
67
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
158,672
16 %
Unprojected delegates:
5
Total:
952,720
100 %
16
51
67
· General election › Predictions
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CNN
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean D
Lean D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
538
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Tossup
November 4, 2024
CNN
Tossup
November 4, 2024
CNalysis
Lean D
November 4, 2024
The Economist
Tossup
November 4, 2024
538
Tossup
November 4, 2024
Inside Elections
Tossup
November 4, 2024
NBC News
Tossup
November 4, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 23 – November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Tie
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
47 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Harris +0 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +0 %
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation
Real Clear Politics
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
2 %
Margin
Trump +0 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +0 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
48 %
Dates updated
48 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
3 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +0 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 23 – November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
48 %
48 %
3 %
Tie
538
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
47 %
47 %
4 %
Harris +0 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
48 %
48 %
3 %
Trump +0 %
Real Clear Politics
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
48 %
48 %
2 %
Trump +0 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
48 %
48 %
3 %
Trump +0 %
Average
48 %
48 %
3 %
Trump +0 %
· General election › Polling
HarrisX
HarrisX
Poll source
HarrisX
Date(s) administered
November 3–5, 2024
Sample size
2,333 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
6%
52%
52%
Poll source
52%
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
–
2,103 (LV)
2,103 (LV)
Poll source
2,103 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
46%
Margin of error
3%
52%
52%
Poll source
52%
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
–
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
1,840 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
Research Co.
Research Co.
Poll source
Research Co.
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2024
Sample size
450 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
1,089 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
5%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
903 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
2,049 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 30 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
1%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
Date(s) administered
October 29 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
1,527 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
1,527 (LV)
1,527 (LV)
Poll source
1,527 (LV)
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Poll source
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
Date(s) administered
October 25 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
798 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
699 (LV)
699 (LV)
Poll source
699 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
4%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 10 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
850 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
2%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
1,738 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
October 29–31, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 25–31, 2024
Sample size
982 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
2%
956 (LV)
956 (LV)
Poll source
956 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 22−31, 2024
Sample size
1,395 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Poll source
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Date(s) administered
October 27–30, 2024
Sample size
460 (RV)
Margin of error
± 6 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
4%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
October 27–30, 2024
Sample size
1,558 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,400 (LV)
1,400 (LV)
Poll source
1,400 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
48%
Kamala Harris Democratic
2%
Echelon Insights
Echelon Insights
Poll source
Echelon Insights
Date(s) administered
October 27–30, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Other / Undecided
2%
The Washington Post
The Washington Post
Poll source
The Washington Post
Date(s) administered
October 26-30, 2024
Sample size
1,204 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 25–29, 2024
Sample size
1,299 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 25–28, 2024
Sample size
849 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Fox News
Fox News
Poll source
Fox News
Date(s) administered
October 24–28, 2024
Sample size
1,310 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,057 (LV)
1,057 (LV)
Poll source
1,057 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
October 24–28, 2024
Sample size
2,186 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
CBS News/YouGov
CBS News/YouGov
Poll source
CBS News/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 22–28, 2024
Sample size
1,273 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
October 26–27, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
October 25–27, 2024
Sample size
1,116 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)
North Star Opinion Research (R)
Poll source
North Star Opinion Research (R)
Date(s) administered
October 22–26, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
6%
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
3,708 (A)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
3%
3,685 (LV)
3,685 (LV)
Poll source
3,685 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
3%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 21–22, 2024
Sample size
860 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
October 20–22, 2024
Sample size
1,586 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)
Poll source
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)
Date(s) administered
October 18−22, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
Quantus Insights (R)
Quantus Insights (R)
Poll source
Quantus Insights (R)
Date(s) administered
October 17−20, 2024
Sample size
840 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Poll source
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 16–20, 2024
Sample size
866 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
812 (LV)
812 (LV)
Poll source
812 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
2%
Franklin & Marshall College
Franklin & Marshall College
Poll source
Franklin & Marshall College
Date(s) administered
October 9−20, 2024
Sample size
890 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
8%
583 (LV)
583 (LV)
Poll source
583 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 5 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 17−19, 2024
Sample size
1,084 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
11%
The Bullfinch Group
The Bullfinch Group
Poll source
The Bullfinch Group
Date(s) administered
October 11−18, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
3%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 12–17, 2024
Sample size
2,048 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
Rose Institute/YouGov
Rose Institute/YouGov
Poll source
Rose Institute/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 7–17, 2024
Sample size
1,062 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
1,043 (LV)
1,043 (LV)
Poll source
1,043 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
2%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 6−15, 2024
Sample size
1,395 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
The Washington Post/Schar School
The Washington Post/Schar School
Poll source
The Washington Post/Schar School
Date(s) administered
September 30 – October 15, 2024
Sample size
707 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
5%
707 (LV)
707 (LV)
Poll source
707 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 9–13, 2024
Sample size
1,072 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
Date(s) administered
October 7–10, 2024
Sample size
857 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
4%
857 (LV)
857 (LV)
Poll source
857 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
3%
American Pulse Research & Polling
American Pulse Research & Polling
Poll source
American Pulse Research & Polling
Date(s) administered
October 2–10, 2024
Sample size
1,193 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
50 %
Other / Undecided
–
TIPP Insights
TIPP Insights
Poll source
TIPP Insights
Date(s) administered
October 7–9, 2024
Sample size
1,079 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
6%
803 (LV)
803 (LV)
Poll source
803 (LV)
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Date(s) administered
October 6–9, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
October 7–8, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 5–8, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
1%
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal
Poll source
The Wall Street Journal
Date(s) administered
September 28 – October 8, 2024
Sample size
600 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Research Co.
Research Co.
Poll source
Research Co.
Date(s) administered
October 5–7, 2024
Sample size
450 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
50%
50%
Poll source
50%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
1%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
October 3–7, 2024
Sample size
1,412 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
4%
Hunt Research
Hunt Research
Poll source
Hunt Research
Date(s) administered
October 2–7, 2024
Sample size
1,037 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
5%
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov
Poll source
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
September 28–29, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
6%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
September 27–29, 2024
Sample size
816 (RV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
The Bullfinch Group
The Bullfinch Group
Poll source
The Bullfinch Group
Date(s) administered
September 26–29, 2024
Sample size
800 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
4%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
September 26–29, 2024
Sample size
1,090 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
7%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Poll source
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Date(s) administered
September 23–29, 2024
Sample size
408 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
HarrisX
November 3–5, 2024
2,333 (RV)
± 2 %
49%
45%
6%
52%
48%
–
2,103 (LV)
51%
46%
3%
52%
48%
–
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
1,840 (LV)
± 2 %
49%
50%
1%
Research Co.
November 2–3, 2024
450 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
47%
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
November 1–3, 2024
1,089 (LV)
± 2 %
47%
48%
5%
Patriot Polling
November 1–3, 2024
903 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
50%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
November 1–2, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
49%
3%
AtlasIntel
November 1–2, 2024
2,049 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
50%
2%
Emerson College
October 30 – November 2, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
49%
3%
49%
50%
1%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer
October 29 – November 2, 2024
1,527 (RV)
± 3 %
47%
47%
5%
1,527 (LV)
48%
48%
4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University
October 25 – November 2, 2024
798 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
46%
6%
699 (LV)
49%
47%
4%
ActiVote
October 10 – November 2, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
50 %
49 %
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
October 30–31, 2024
850 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
48%
2%
AtlasIntel
October 30–31, 2024
1,738 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
49%
3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
October 29–31, 2024
800 (LV)
–
47%
49%
4%
YouGov
October 25–31, 2024
982 (RV)
± 3 %
50%
48%
2%
956 (LV)
51%
48%
1%
Morning Consult
October 22−31, 2024
1,395 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
48%
4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
October 27–30, 2024
460 (RV)
± 6 %
49%
47%
4%
Marist College
October 27–30, 2024
1,558 (RV)
± 3 %
51%
47%
2%
1,400 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
48%
2%
Echelon Insights
October 27–30, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
52%
2%
The Washington Post
October 26-30, 2024
1,204 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
47%
5%
AtlasIntel
October 25–29, 2024
1,299 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
50%
3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 25–28, 2024
849 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
49%
4%
Fox News
October 24–28, 2024
1,310 (RV)
± 2 %
50%
48%
2%
1,057 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
50%
1%
Quinnipiac University
October 24–28, 2024
2,186 (LV)
± 2 %
47%
49%
4%
CBS News/YouGov
October 22–28, 2024
1,273 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
October 26–27, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
48%
5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
October 25–27, 2024
1,116 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
48%
4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)
October 22–26, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
47%
6%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
3,708 (A)
–
50%
47%
3%
3,685 (LV)
49%
48%
3%
Emerson College
October 21–22, 2024
860 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
49%
3%
49%
51%
–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
October 20–22, 2024
1,586 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
47%
5%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)
October 18−22, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
46%
8%
Quantus Insights (R)
October 17−20, 2024
840 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
50%
2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
October 16–20, 2024
866 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
48%
4%
812 (LV)
50%
48%
2%
Franklin & Marshall College
October 9−20, 2024
890 (RV)
± 4 %
48%
44%
8%
583 (LV)
± 5 %
49%
50%
1%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 17−19, 2024
1,084 (LV)
± 2 %
43%
46%
11%

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Other" with 3%
  5. "Other" with 2%
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. "Another Candidate" with 2%
  8. "Another Candidate" with 1%
  9. "Neither/Other" with 2%
  10. "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  11. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  12. "Other" with 5%
  13. "A third party / Independent candidate" with 2%
  14. "Other" with 6%
  15. "Other" with 1%
  16. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  17. "Another Candidate" with 3%
  18. "Someone else" with 2%
  19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. "Would not vote" with 1%
Image
Source: —
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