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2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Ohio had 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. Republican Donald Trump ultimately won Ohio for the third straight election, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris by 11 %, the widest presidential margin of victory in the state since fellow Republican Ronald Reagan's 18 % in 1984. Trump became the third presidential candidate to carry Ohio three times, following Franklin D. Roosevelt (the only previous candidate with three consecutive victories here) and Richard Nixon. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Ohio a state Trump would once again win, or a likely red state. A former bellwether and swing state, Ohio has not voted for a Democratic nominee for president since Barack Obama in 2012. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Since 2012, Ohio has been trending towards the GOP. The state is currently moderately to strongly Republican. Trump's 2024 statewide victory was the first double-digit win at the presidential level for Ohio since Republican George H. W. Bush's 10 % in 1988. Ohio was the home state of Trump's running mate JD Vance. At the previous presidential election in 2020, Trump won Ohio over Joe Biden, the first time a candidate won Ohio but not the presidency since Nixon's contest against John F. Kennedy in 1960. The election was held concurrently with a U . Senate race in Ohio, in which Republican nominee Bernie Moreno unseated Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, which was partly credited to Trump's overall success in the state. Additionally, an attempt to establish a redistricting commission (with the goal of ending gerrymandering) was proposed on the state's ballot but was defeated. Trump's denouncement of this is also perceived as having had an influence on this, amongst a number of other factors.

Infobox

Turnout
71 %
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
17
Popular vote
3,180,116
Percentage
55 %

Tables

Ohio Democratic primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
461,558
%
87
Delegates
124
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
68,629
%
12
Delegates
3
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
530,187
%
100%
Delegates
127
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
461,558
87
124
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
68,629
12
3
Total
530,187
100%
127
Ohio Republican primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
896,059
Percentage
79 %
Actual delegate count
79
Actual delegate count
79
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
162,563
Percentage
14 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
38,089
Percentage
3 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
20,027
Percentage
1 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
14,450
Percentage
1 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
1,131,188
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
79
Actual delegate count
79
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
896,059
79 %
79
79
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
162,563
14 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
38,089
3 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
20,027
1 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
14,450
1 %
Total:
1,131,188
100 %
79
79
· General election › Predictions
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid R
As of
December 19, 2023
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Likely R
As of
April 26, 2023
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe R
As of
June 13, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Likely R
As of
December 14, 2023
Likely R
Likely R
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 4, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid R
As of
January 14, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 1, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
538
Ranking
Likely R
As of
June 11, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 6, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
YouGov
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 1, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid R
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections
Likely R
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Likely R
December 14, 2023
CNalysis
Likely R
November 4, 2024
CNN
Solid R
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Safe R
November 1, 2024
538
Likely R
June 11, 2024
NBC News
Safe R
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Safe R
November 1, 2024
Split Ticket
Likely R
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 22 – November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
44 %
Donald Trump Republican
52 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
43 %
Donald Trump Republican
52 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +8 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 3, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
44 %
Donald Trump Republican
52 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +7 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
44 %
Dates updated
52 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
3 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +8 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 22 – November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
44 %
52 %
3 %
Trump +7 %
538
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
43 %
52 %
4 %
Trump +8 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
44 %
52 %
3 %
Trump +7 %
Average
44 %
52 %
3 %
Trump +8 %
· General election › Polling
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
1,022 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
1%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
November 2–4, 2024
Sample size
1,095 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
3%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 30 − November 2, 2024
Sample size
900 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / Undecided
4%
54 %
54 %
Poll source
54 %
Date(s) administered
43 %
Sample size
1 %
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 23 − November 1, 2024
Sample size
1,254 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 25–28, 2024
Sample size
1,127 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / Undecided
2%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 5−28, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / Undecided
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
3,120 (A)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
3%
3,091 (LV)
3,091 (LV)
Poll source
3,091 (LV)
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
45%
Margin of error
3%
J . Partners
J . Partners
Poll source
J . Partners
Date(s) administered
October 22−24, 2024
Sample size
997 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
3%
University of Akron
University of Akron
Poll source
University of Akron
Date(s) administered
September 12 – October 24, 2024
Sample size
1,241 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Poll source
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 10−21, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
5%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 6−15, 2024
Sample size
1,243 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 9−14, 2024
Sample size
1,051 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
Washington Post
Washington Post
Poll source
Washington Post
Date(s) administered
October 3–7, 2024
Sample size
1,002 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
1,002 (LV)
1,002 (LV)
Poll source
1,002 (LV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
45%
Margin of error
4%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
October 3–7, 2024
Sample size
1,511 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,327 (LV)
1,327 (LV)
Poll source
1,327 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
52%
Margin of error
46%
Donald Trump Republican
2%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 28 – September 30, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Other / Undecided
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Poll source
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
Date(s) administered
September 18–27, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
September 21–26, 2024
Sample size
687 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Other / Undecided
6%
687 (LV)
687 (LV)
Poll source
687 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
6%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s) administered
September 18−20, 2024
Sample size
757 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
3%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 9−18, 2024
Sample size
1,488 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
5%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 8, 2024
Sample size
1,558 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
4%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 3–5, 2024
Sample size
945 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
4%
54%
54%
Poll source
54%
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
1%
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
August 31 – September 1, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
5%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 2–22, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
August 13–17, 2024
Sample size
1,267 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Other / Undecided
5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
July 23–28, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / Undecided
6%
Ohio Northern University
Ohio Northern University
Poll source
Ohio Northern University
Date(s) administered
March 6–11, 2024
Sample size
1,241 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
38%
Other / Undecided
11%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Other / Undecided
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
1,022 (LV)
± 3 %
54%
45%
1%
Trafalgar Group (R)
November 2–4, 2024
1,095 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
45%
3%
Emerson College
October 30 − November 2, 2024
900 (LV)
± 3 %
54%
42%
4%
54 %
43 %
1 %
Morning Consult
October 23 − November 1, 2024
1,254 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
44%
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 25–28, 2024
1,127 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
46%
2%
ActiVote
October 5−28, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
54%
46%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
3,120 (A)
52%
45%
3%
3,091 (LV)
52%
45%
3%
J . Partners
October 22−24, 2024
997 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
44%
3%
University of Akron
September 12 – October 24, 2024
1,241 (RV)
± 2 %
51%
44%
5%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
October 10−21, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
43%
5%
Morning Consult
October 6−15, 2024
1,243 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
45%
3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 9−14, 2024
1,051 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
44%
5%
Washington Post
October 3–7, 2024
1,002 (RV)
± 3 %
51%
44%
5%
1,002 (LV)
51%
45%
4%
Marist College
October 3–7, 2024
1,511 (RV)
± 3 %
52%
46%
2%
1,327 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
46%
2%
ActiVote
August 28 – September 30, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
54%
46%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov
September 18–27, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
44%
5%
New York Times/Siena College
September 21–26, 2024
687 (RV)
± 4 %
49%
45%
6%
687 (LV)
50%
44%
6%
RMG Research
September 18−20, 2024
757 (LV)
± 3 %
54%
43%
3%
Morning Consult
September 9−18, 2024
1,488 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
43%
5%
Morning Consult
August 30 – September 8, 2024
1,558 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
44%
4%
Emerson College
September 3–5, 2024
945 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
43%
4%
54%
45%
1%
SoCal Strategies (R)
August 31 – September 1, 2024
600 (LV)
52%
43%
5%
August 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
ActiVote
August 2–22, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
56%
44%
August 19–22, 2024
Democratic National Convention
Rasmussen Reports (R)
August 13–17, 2024
1,267 (LV)
51%
44%
5%
August 6, 2024
Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
July 23–28, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
52%
42%
6%
July 21, 2024
Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024
Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024
attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Ohio Northern University
March 6–11, 2024
1,241 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
38%
11%

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. "Other" with 2%
  4. "Someone else" with 2%
  5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. "Other" with 1%
  7. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  8. "Someone else" & "Would not vote" with 1% each
  9. "Someone else" with 1%
  10. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  11. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. "Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. "Someone else" with 9%
  15. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  16. Joe Manchin with 6%
  17. "Some other candidate" with 8%
  18. Appeared on the ballot, but votes were not counted. Some counties tallied votes as "Jill Stein/Anita Rios," and others c
  19. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  20. Poll sponsored by Ohio Press Network
Image
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