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2024 United States presidential election in New York

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in New York

The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. Prior to the election, New York was considered to be a state Harris would win or a safe blue state. Although it remained comfortably Democratic, New York was the state that had the biggest Republican swing out of any state in the nation in the 2024 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 43 % of the state's vote, compared to 36 % in the 2016 election and 37 % in 2020. New York followed a trend of blue states, such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and California voting more Republican than in 2020. Harris had the smallest Democratic margin in New York City (NYC) of any Democratic nominee since 1988, with Trump becoming the first Republican to win at least 30% of the vote in NYC since 1988. Turnout in New York state was also down by approximately 7 % compared to 2020, which likely contributed to reduced Democratic margins in many parts of the state. The Bronx and Queens swung toward Trump by more than 20 percentage points from 2020; these were among the largest county swings toward Trump outside of South Texas and Imperial County, California. Nonetheless, Harris still won the state by a decisive margin of 12 percentage points. Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error. Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4 points in the 1988 election, having decreased the Democratic margin of victory by 10 percentage points compared to 2020.

Infobox

Turnout
62 % ( 7 pp)
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Alliance
Working Families
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
28
Popular vote
4,619,195
Percentage
55 %

Tables

New York Democratic primary, April 2, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
288,090
%
80
Delegates
268
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
15,567
%
4
Delegates
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
11,302
%
3
Delegates
0
Blank ballots
Blank ballots
Candidate
Blank ballots
Votes
41,092
%
11
Delegates
Void ballots
Void ballots
Candidate
Void ballots
Votes
904
%
0
Delegates
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
356,955
%
100%
Delegates
268
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
288,090
80
268
Marianne Williamson
15,567
4
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
11,302
3
0
Blank ballots
41,092
11
Void ballots
904
0
Total
356,955
100%
268
· Primary elections › Democratic primary › Primary polling
Siena College
Siena College
Poll source
Siena College
Date(s) administered
Sep 10–13, 2023
Sample size
804 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden
54%
Different Candidate
40%
Undecided
6%
Siena College
Siena College
Poll source
Siena College
Date(s) administered
Aug 13–16, 2023
Sample size
803 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden
47%
Different Candidate
46%
Undecided
7%
Siena College
Siena College
Poll source
Siena College
Date(s) administered
Jun 20–25, 2023
Sample size
817 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Joe Biden
54%
Different Candidate
40%
Undecided
6%
Siena College
Siena College
Poll source
Siena College
Date(s) administered
May 7–11, 2023
Sample size
810 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden
56%
Different Candidate
40%
Undecided
4%
Siena College
Siena College
Poll source
Siena College
Date(s) administered
Mar 19–22, 2023
Sample size
802 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden
43%
Different Candidate
51%
Undecided
7%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Joe Biden
Different Candidate
Undecided
Siena College
Sep 10–13, 2023
804 (RV)
± 4 %
54%
40%
6%
Siena College
Aug 13–16, 2023
803 (RV)
± 4 %
47%
46%
7%
Siena College
Jun 20–25, 2023
817 (RV)
± 3 %
54%
40%
6%
Siena College
May 7–11, 2023
810 (RV)
± 4 %
56%
40%
4%
Siena College
Mar 19–22, 2023
802 (RV)
± 4 %
43%
51%
7%
New York Republican primary, April 2, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
132,698
Percentage
81 %
Actual delegate count
91
Actual delegate count
91
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
21,145
Percentage
12 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
6,679
Percentage
4 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
1,667
Percentage
1 %
Blank or void ballots
Blank or void ballots
Candidate
Blank or void ballots
Votes
1,311
Percentage
0 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
163,500
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
91
Actual delegate count
91
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
132,698
81 %
91
91
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
21,145
12 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
6,679
4 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
1,667
1 %
Blank or void ballots
1,311
0 %
Total:
163,500
100 %
91
91
· General election
Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza
Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz Democratic Party Working Families Party
Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza
Donald Trump and JD Vance Republican Party Conservative Party
Edward F. Cox William Barclay Bruce Blakeman Joe Borelli Karl Brabenec John Burnett Joe Cairo Andrea Catsimatidis Benjamin Federman Jesse Garcia Mark Heberling Michael Kracker Michael McCormack Steven McLaughlin Tim McNulty Anthony Nunziato Rob Ortt Patrick Reilly Michael Rendino Jennifer Rich Sylvia Rowan Christopher Tague Trish Turner Joseph Whal
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz Democratic Party Working Families Party
Donald Trump and JD Vance Republican Party Conservative Party
Kathy Hochul Jay Jacobs Eric Adams Mohammed Akber Alam Stuart Appelbaum Byron Brown Mario Cliento Michelle Crentsil Antonio Delgado Thomas DiNapoli Hazel Dukes Thomas J. Garry Vanessa Gibson George Gresham Carl Heastie Letitia James Gary LaBarbera Carolyn Maloney Luis Miranda Crystal Peoples-Stokes Christine Quinn Katherine Sheehan Anastasia Somoza
Edward F. Cox William Barclay Bruce Blakeman Joe Borelli Karl Brabenec John Burnett Joe Cairo Andrea Catsimatidis Benjamin Federman Jesse Garcia Mark Heberling Michael Kracker Michael McCormack Steven McLaughlin Tim McNulty Anthony Nunziato Rob Ortt Patrick Reilly Michael Rendino Jennifer Rich Sylvia Rowan Christopher Tague Trish Turner Joseph Whal
· General election › Predictions
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid D
As of
December 19, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid D
As of
April 26, 2023
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe D
As of
June 29, 2023
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Safe D
As of
December 14, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Solid D
As of
December 30, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid D
As of
January 14, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe D
As of
June 12, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
538
Ranking
Solid D
As of
August 23, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
RCP
Ranking
Solid D
As of
June 26, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 6, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid D
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections
Solid D
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Safe D
December 14, 2023
CNalysis
Solid D
December 30, 2023
CNN
Solid D
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Safe D
June 12, 2024
538
Solid D
August 23, 2024
RCP
Solid D
June 26, 2024
NBC News
Safe D
October 6, 2024

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 3%
  3. "Someone else" with 1%
  4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. Poll sponsored by WPIX-TV
  6. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  7. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  8. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by WNYT-TV
  10. Poll sponsored by WHEC-TV & WNYT-TV
  11. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  12. theweek
    https://theweek.com/politics/democratic-voters-turnout-presidential-election-2024-trump-independents-liberal-messaging
  13. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/22/us/elections/nyc-harris-trump-votes.html
  14. Yahoo News
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/now-deep-blue-york-turning-134407361.html
  15. Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/trump-says-he-has-good-chance-of-winning-new-york-in-november
  16. New York Post
    https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/2024-presidential-election-marks-closest-new-york-has-come-to-turning-red-in-30-years-as-trump-support-surges-in-nyc/
  17. "Democratic Presidential Primary • President of the United States • State of New York"
    https://results.elections.ny.gov/contest/5561
  18. "Siena College"
    https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/SNY0923-Crosstabs.pdf
  19. Siena College
    https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/SNY0823-Crosstabs.pdf
  20. Siena College
    https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/SNY0623-Crosstabs.pdf
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