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2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Before President Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some. However, after incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column. Although Harris carried New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004. This is the second consecutive election where the state voted to the right of neighboring Colorado, after doing so for the first time since 1968 the previous cycle. This was also the second time in its history that it did not vote for the winner of the national popular vote, after 1976 (in 2000 and 2016, it voted for the candidate who won the popular vote but not the electoral vote). Despite Harris losing significant support among Hispanic voters, she held her own in New Mexico, which has the highest percentage of Hispanics of any state. This was the first time that New Mexico voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote, and the first time since statehood that any major party candidate won two terms in the White House without ever carrying the state at least once. This also marked the third of only three times since its statehood in 1912 that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without carrying New Mexico (along with 2000 and 2016).

Infobox

Turnout
66 % (of eligible voters) ( 1 pp)
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
5
Popular vote
478,802
Percentage
51 %

Tables

New Mexico Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Pledged
Pledged
Candidate
Pledged
Votes
Unpledged
Percentage
Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
111,049
Percentage
83 %
Actual delegate count
34
Actual delegate count
34
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
12,938
Percentage
9 %
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
8,935
Percentage
6 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
132,922
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
34
Actual delegate count
11
Actual delegate count
45
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Pledged
Unpledged
Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)
111,049
83 %
34
34
Uncommitted
12,938
9 %
Marianne Williamson
8,935
6 %
Total:
132,922
100 %
34
11
45
New Mexico Republican primary, June 4, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
78,999
Percentage
84 %
Actual delegate count
22
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
22
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
8,054
Percentage
8 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
3,130
Percentage
3 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
2,428
Percentage
2 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
886
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
93,497
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
22
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
22
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
78,999
84 %
22
0
22
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
8,054
8 %
0
0
0
Uncommitted
3,130
3 %
0
0
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
2,428
2 %
0
0
0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
886
0 %
0
0
0
Total:
93,497
100 %
22
0
22
New Mexico Libertarian primary, June 4, 2024 · Primary elections › Libertarian primary
Lars Mapstead
Lars Mapstead
Candidate
Lars Mapstead
Votes
432
Percentage
56 %
None of the Above
None of the Above
Candidate
None of the Above
Votes
332
Percentage
43 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
764
Percentage
100 %
Source:
Source:
Candidate
Source:
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Lars Mapstead
432
56 %
None of the Above
332
43 %
Total:
764
100 %
Source:
· General election › Predictions
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely D
As of
June 12, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid D
As of
April 26, 2023
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely D
As of
June 29, 2023
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Likely D
As of
December 14, 2023
Very Likely D
Very Likely D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Very Likely D
As of
November 1, 2024
Lean D
Lean D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Lean D
As of
January 14, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely D
As of
August 20, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
538
Ranking
Likely D
As of
June 11, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Likely D
As of
October 6, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
YouGov
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 16, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Likely D
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Likely D
June 12, 2024
Inside Elections
Solid D
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Likely D
December 14, 2023
CNalysis
Very Likely D
November 1, 2024
CNN
Lean D
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Likely D
August 20, 2024
538
Likely D
June 11, 2024
NBC News
Likely D
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Safe D
October 16, 2024
Split Ticket
Likely D
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling
Victory Insights
Victory Insights
Poll source
Victory Insights
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
44 %
Other / Undecided
5 %
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
October 28–31, 2024
Sample size
632 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 24–26, 2024
Sample size
749 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
September 19−22, 2024
Sample size
708 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
6%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
September 12–18, 2024
Sample size
619 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
8%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
August 20–22, 2024
Sample size
956 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
6%
54%
54%
Poll source
54%
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Victory Insights
November 1–3, 2024
600 (LV)
49 %
44 %
5 %
SurveyUSA
October 28–31, 2024
632 (LV)
± 5 %
50%
44%
6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 24–26, 2024
749 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
44%
7%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
September 19−22, 2024
708 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
44%
6%
SurveyUSA
September 12–18, 2024
619 (LV)
± 5 %
50%
42%
8%
September 10, 2024
The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
August 23, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024
Democratic National Convention concludes
Emerson College
August 20–22, 2024
956 (RV)
± 3 %
52%
42%
6%
54%
46%
August 19, 2024
Democratic National Convention begins

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "Other" with 5 %
  3. "Other" with 3%
  4. "Other" with 4%
  5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. The Free New Mexico Party is the state affiliate of the national Libertarian Party, which nominated Oliver and ter Maat.
  7. Poll sponsored by KOB-TV
  8. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  9. Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
  10. Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  11. Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
  12. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  13. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  14. "Joe Biden's Lead Wiped Out in Critical Battleground States"
    https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-polls-latest-key-states-1920619
  15. "2022 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List"
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list
  16. "New Mexico political battleground shifts with Biden exit"
    https://www.abqjournal.com/new-mexico-political-battleground-shifts-with-biden-exit/article_106832a0-479f-11ef-9c6f-9ffe1098f37c.html
  17. "2024 New Mexico: Multi-Candidate"
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/new-mexico/harris-vs-trump-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein-vs-oliver
  18. 270toWin
    https://www.270towin.com/
  19. "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results"
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/04/us/elections/results-new-mexico-democratic-presidential-primary.html
  20. "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results"
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/04/us/elections/results-new-mexico-republican-presidential-primary.html
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