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2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992. Kamala Harris was widely expected to win the state, which she did by a 5 % margin, marking the first single-digit margin of victory for a Democrat in the state since 2004. This is the closest a Republican has come to winning in New Jersey since 1992. While Trump gained nearly 100,000 votes from 2020, Harris received nearly 400,000 fewer votes than Biden. Trump received the most votes in New Jersey of any Republican presidential nominee, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1984 raw vote total. New Jersey had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York. New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York and California in seeing significant rightward shifts in 2024. New Jersey was also the only state that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 by double digits that Harris won by a single digit margin in 2024.

Infobox

Turnout
64 % (of registered voters)
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
14
Popular vote
2,220,713
Percentage
51 %

Tables

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Pledged
Pledged
Candidate
Pledged
Votes
Unpledged
Percentage
Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
458,281
Percentage
88 %
Actual delegate count
124
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
46,988
Percentage
9 %
Actual delegate count
2
Terrisa Bukovinac
Terrisa Bukovinac
Candidate
Terrisa Bukovinac
Votes
14,179
Percentage
2 %
Write-in votes
Write-in votes
Candidate
Write-in votes
Votes
1,269
Percentage
0 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
520,717
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
126
Actual delegate count
20
Actual delegate count
146
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Pledged
Unpledged
Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)
458,281
88 %
124
Uncommitted
46,988
9 %
2
Terrisa Bukovinac
14,179
2 %
Write-in votes
1,269
0 %
Total:
520,717
100 %
126
20
146
New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
294,658
Percentage
96 %
Actual delegate count
12
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
12
Write-in votes
Write-in votes
Candidate
Write-in votes
Votes
9,915
Percentage
3 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
304,573
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
12
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
12
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
294,658
96 %
12
0
12
Write-in votes
9,915
3 %
0
0
0
Total:
304,573
100 %
12
0
12
· General election › Predictions
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid D
As of
November 1, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid D
As of
October 31, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe D
As of
September 25, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Safe D
As of
August 26, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Solid D
As of
December 30, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid D
As of
January 14, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 27, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
538
Ranking
Solid D
As of
October 21, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 6, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid D
November 1, 2024
Inside Elections
Solid D
October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Safe D
August 26, 2024
CNalysis
Solid D
December 30, 2023
CNN
Solid D
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Safe D
October 27, 2024
538
Solid D
October 21, 2024
NBC News
Safe D
October 6, 2024
· General election › Polling
Research Co.
Research Co.
Poll source
Research Co.
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2024
Sample size
450 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
57%
Donald Trump Republican
40%
Other / Undecided
3%
Rutgers-Eagleton
Rutgers-Eagleton
Poll source
Rutgers-Eagleton
Date(s) administered
October 15–22, 2024
Sample size
451 (RV)
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
55%
Donald Trump Republican
35%
Other / Undecided
10%
478 (RV)
478 (RV)
Poll source
478 (RV)
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
37%
Margin of error
12%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 2–28, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
57%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Other / Undecided
Cygnal (R)
Cygnal (R)
Poll source
Cygnal (R)
Date(s) administered
October 23–24, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
40%
Other / Undecided
8%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 4 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
56%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Other / Undecided
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Research Co.
November 2–3, 2024
450 (LV)
± 4 %
57%
40%
3%
Rutgers-Eagleton
October 15–22, 2024
451 (RV)
55%
35%
10%
478 (RV)
51%
37%
12%
ActiVote
October 2–28, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
57%
43%
Cygnal (R)
October 23–24, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
52%
40%
8%
ActiVote
September 4 – October 2, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
56%
44%
United 2024 (R)
United 2024 (R)
Poll source
United 2024 (R)
Date(s) administered
July 1–2, 2024
Sample size
477 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden Democratic
41%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Other / Undecided
16%
John Zogby Strategies
John Zogby Strategies
Poll source
John Zogby Strategies
Date(s) administered
April 13–21, 2024
Sample size
530 (LV)
Margin of error
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
March 26–29, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
39%
Other / Undecided
15%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
United 2024 (R)
July 1–2, 2024
477 (RV)
± 4 %
41%
43%
16%
John Zogby Strategies
April 13–21, 2024
530 (LV)
51%
42%
7%
Emerson College
March 26–29, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3 %
46%
39%
15%

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "Neither/Someone else" with 6%
  3. With each candidate's party affiliation excluded
  4. "Neither/Someone else" with 7%
  5. "A third-party candidate" with 4%
  6. Grouped with "Other Third Party Candidate"
  7. Replaced by Dennis Richter.
  8. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  9. NJ
    https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/assets/pdf/election-results/2024/2024-official-general-voter-turnout.pdf
  10. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  11. AP News
    https://apnews.com/article/new-jersey-decision-notes-president-senate-menendez-87429ca9f49e68008cede0a98b0053b4
  12. Opinion by Rubin
    https://bloustein.rutgers.edu/opinion-is-new-jersey-now-a-swing-state/
  13. New Jersey Almanac
    https://www.newjerseyalmanac.com/elections.html
  14. New Jersey 101
    https://nj1015.com/these-7-nj-counties-flip-for-trump-as-harris-does-worse-than-biden/
  15. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/nyregion/trump-nj-votes-election.html
  16. Newsweek
    https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-2024-election-states-1981422
  17. USA Today
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/04/june-4-2024-primaries-iowa-new-mexico-new-jersey/73969602007/
  18. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024"
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/new-jersey-president-results
  19. "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024"
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/new-jersey-president-results
  20. cookpolitical
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings
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