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2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes. Nebraska is one of two states — the other being Maine — that allocates their electoral votes separately by congressional district in addition to two electoral votes going to the statewide winner. The 2nd congressional district, which contains Omaha and some of its suburbs, has been competitive since 2008, when Obama narrowly won the district, making it the first time in 44 years that a Democrat won any of the state's electoral votes. In recent years, the district has leaned Democratic. In 2020, the district flipped back to the Democratic column, backing Joe Biden by 5 %, despite the state voting Republican by a landslide margin. Trump improved his margin statewide but lost the 2nd district again. This is the first time the 2nd district voted for a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote and the presidential election. Barack Obama in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 both failed to carry the district, even as both won the popular vote. The 2nd district was the only electoral vote Trump won in 2016 that he did not win in 2024. While redistricting between the 2020 and 2024 elections had made the district more Republican-leaning, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by 4 %. Nebraska had one of the smallest swings of any state, swinging by just 1 % from 2020 to 2024. Tim Walz, the running mate of Kamala Harris and governor of Minnesota, was born and raised in the state.

Infobox

Turnout
76 % (0 pp)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
4
Popular vote
564,816
Percentage
59 %

Tables

Nebraska Democratic primary, May 14, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
84,677
%
90
Delegates
28
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
9,199
%
9
Delegates
1
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
93,876
%
100%
Delegates
29
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
84,677
90
28
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
9,199
9
1
Total
93,876
100%
29
Nebraska Republican primary, May 14, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
167,968
Percentage
79 %
Actual delegate count
36
Actual delegate count
36
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
38,246
Percentage
18 %
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)
Votes
3,902
Percentage
1 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
211,787
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
36
Actual delegate count
36
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
167,968
79 %
36
36
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
38,246
18 %
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)
3,902
1 %
Total:
211,787
100 %
36
36
Nebraska Libertarian primary, May 14, 2024 · Primary elections › Libertarian primary
Chase Oliver
Chase Oliver
Candidate
Chase Oliver
Votes
309
Percentage
27 %
Charles Ballay
Charles Ballay
Candidate
Charles Ballay
Votes
237
Percentage
21 %
Jacob Hornberger
Jacob Hornberger
Candidate
Jacob Hornberger
Votes
204
Percentage
18 %
Lars Mapstead
Lars Mapstead
Candidate
Lars Mapstead
Votes
180
Percentage
16 %
Michael Rectenwald
Michael Rectenwald
Candidate
Michael Rectenwald
Votes
120
Percentage
10 %
Mike ter Maat
Mike ter Maat
Candidate
Mike ter Maat
Votes
69
Percentage
6 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
1,119
Percentage
100 %
Source:
Source:
Candidate
Source:
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Chase Oliver
309
27 %
Charles Ballay
237
21 %
Jacob Hornberger
204
18 %
Lars Mapstead
180
16 %
Michael Rectenwald
120
10 %
Mike ter Maat
69
6 %
Total:
1,119
100 %
Source:
· General election › Predictions
Cook Political Report
Cook Political Report
Source
Cook Political Report
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
November 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
1st district
Likely R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Safe R
As of
November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Safe R
As of
August 26, 2024
CNalysis
CNalysis
Source
CNalysis
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Solid D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
November 4, 2024
CNN
CNN
Source
CNN
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
October 1, 2024
The Economist
The Economist
Source
The Economist
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Safe R
As of
October 3, 2024
538
538
Source
538
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
September 13, 2024
Inside Elections
Inside Elections
Source
Inside Elections
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
August 29, 2024
NBC News
NBC News
Source
NBC News
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Lean D
3rd district
Safe R
Statewide
Safe R
As of
October 6, 2024
YouGov
YouGov
Source
YouGov
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Tossup
3rd district
Safe R
Statewide
Safe R
As of
October 16, 2024
Split Ticket
Split Ticket
Source
Split Ticket
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Likely D
3rd district
Solid R
Statewide
Solid R
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
1st district
2nd district
3rd district
Statewide
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid R
Likely D
Solid R
Solid R
November 1, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Likely D
Solid R
Safe R
November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Solid R
Likely D
Solid R
Safe R
August 26, 2024
CNalysis
Solid R
Solid D
Solid R
Solid R
November 4, 2024
CNN
Solid R
Lean D
Solid R
Solid R
October 1, 2024
The Economist
Safe R
Likely D
Solid R
Safe R
October 3, 2024
538
Solid R
Likely D
Solid R
Solid R
September 13, 2024
Inside Elections
Solid R
Lean D
Solid R
Solid R
August 29, 2024
NBC News
Safe R
Lean D
Safe R
Safe R
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Safe R
Tossup
Safe R
Safe R
October 16, 2024
Split Ticket
Solid R
Likely D
Solid R
Solid R
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Kamala Harris Democratic
39%
Other / Undecided
4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Poll source
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 25–28, 2024
Sample size
605 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Kamala Harris Democratic
39%
Other / Undecided
5%
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 23−26, 2024
Sample size
1,194 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
40%
Other / Undecided
5%
1,194 (LV)
1,194 (LV)
Poll source
1,194 (LV)
Date(s) administered
55%
Sample size
40%
Margin of error
5%
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
October 18–21, 2024
Sample size
815 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
41%
Other / Undecided
4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Poll source
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 5–8, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Kamala Harris Democratic
37%
Other / Undecided
6%
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
October 3–8, 2024
Sample size
895 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
58%
Kamala Harris Democratic
38%
Other / Undecided
4%
Impact Research (D)
Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
October 1–3, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
58%
Kamala Harris Democratic
38%
Other / Undecided
4%
The Bullfinch Group
The Bullfinch Group
Poll source
The Bullfinch Group
Date(s) administered
September 27 – October 1, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / Undecided
5%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
38%
Sample size
14%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
September 20–23, 2024
Sample size
558 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Kamala Harris Democratic
40%
Other / Undecided
5%
Global Strategy Group (D)
Global Strategy Group (D)
Poll source
Global Strategy Group (D)
Date(s) administered
August 26–29, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
37%
Other / Undecided
9%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
August 23–27, 2024
Sample size
1,293 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Kamala Harris Democratic
37%
Other / Undecided
9%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Other / Undecided
Change Research (D)
October 30–31, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
57%
39%
4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
October 25–28, 2024
605 (LV)
± 3 %
56%
39%
5%
New York Times/Siena College
October 23−26, 2024
1,194 (RV)
± 3 %
55%
40%
5%
1,194 (LV)
55%
40%
5%
Change Research (D)
October 18–21, 2024
815 (LV)
–
55%
41%
4%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
October 5–8, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
57%
37%
6%
Change Research (D)
October 3–8, 2024
895 (LV)
± 3 %
58%
38%
4%
Impact Research (D)
October 1–3, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
58%
38%
4%
The Bullfinch Group
September 27 – October 1, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
53%
42%
5%
48%
38%
14%
SurveyUSA
September 20–23, 2024
558 (LV)
± 4 %
56%
40%
5%
Global Strategy Group (D)
August 26–29, 2024
600 (LV)
–
54%
37%
9%
SurveyUSA
August 23–27, 2024
1,293 (RV)
± 3 %
54%
37%
9%

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "A third party / Independent candidate" with 7%
  3. "Other" with 3%; "Undecided" with 2%
  4. "Other" with 4%
  5. "Other" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 11%
  7. "Other" with 5%
  8. "Someone else" with 12%
  9. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  10. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
  11. Poll sponsored by the campaign of Dan Osborn, an independent candidate for Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat
  12. Poll sponsored by the campaign of U . Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Trump
  13. Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  14. Poll sponsored by Retire Career Politicians PAC
  15. Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
  16. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  17. Poll sponsored by Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety
  18. Poll sponsored by Nebraska Examiner
  19. Poll sponsored by Future Majority
  20. Poll commissioned by League of American Workers
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