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2024 United States presidential election in Maine

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This election coincided with five referendum questions including a referendum to change the state flag, as well as a U . Senate election, U . House elections for the state's two congressional districts and various other state, county and local elections. The state uses ranked-choice voting. Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a moderately to strongly red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020. Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020, Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election. Harris won Maine at-large by about 6 %, worse than Biden but better than Clinton, and with the largest raw vote total of any presidential candidate in the state's history. Maine was the only state where Harris received the most raw votes of any candidate in the state's history up to 2024. Maine also had one of the smallest swings, swinging rightward by just 2%. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district. Despite losing the state, Trump received the highest percentage of the total vote for a Republican since George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988.

Infobox

Turnout
74 %
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
3
Popular vote
435,652
Percentage
52 %

Tables

2024 Maine Democratic primary · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
60,018
%
82
Delegates
24
Dean Phillips
Dean Phillips
Candidate
Dean Phillips
Votes
4,623
%
6
Delegates
0
Other candidates (write-in)
Other candidates (write-in)
Candidate
Other candidates (write-in)
Votes
480
%
0
Delegates
0
Blank ballots
Blank ballots
Candidate
Blank ballots
Votes
7,359
%
10
Delegates
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
72,480
%
100%
Delegates
24
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
60,018
82
24
Dean Phillips
4,623
6
0
Other candidates (write-in)
480
0
0
Blank ballots
7,359
10
Total
72,480
100%
24
Maine Republican primary, March 5, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
79,034
Percentage
71 %
Actual delegate count
20
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
20
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley
Candidate
Nikki Haley
Votes
27,912
Percentage
25 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
1,191
Percentage
1 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
440
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Votes
299
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Blank ballots
Blank ballots
Candidate
Blank ballots
Votes
1,022
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
109,898
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
20
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
20
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
79,034
71 %
20
0
20
Nikki Haley
27,912
25 %
0
0
0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
1,191
1 %
0
0
0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
440
0 %
0
0
0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
299
0 %
0
0
0
Blank ballots
1,022
0 %
0
0
0
Total:
109,898
100 %
20
0
20
· General election › Predictions
The Economist
The Economist
Source
The Economist
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
September 5, 2024
Cook Political Report
Cook Political Report
Source
Cook Political Report
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
August 27, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Safe D
As of
November 4, 2024
CNalysis
CNalysis
Source
CNalysis
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Very Likely R
Statewide
Solid D
As of
November 4, 2024
538
538
Source
538
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
July 15, 2024
CNN
CNN
Source
CNN
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Lean R
Statewide
Safe D
As of
January 14, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
June 29, 2023
Inside Elections
Inside Elections
Source
Inside Elections
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Lean R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
April 26, 2023
NBC News
NBC News
Source
NBC News
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
October 6, 2024
YouGov
YouGov
Source
YouGov
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Tossup
Statewide
Safe D
As of
November 1, 2024
Split Ticket
Split Ticket
Source
Split Ticket
1st district
Safe D
2nd district
Likely R
Statewide
Likely D
As of
November 1, 2024
Source
1st district
2nd district
Statewide
As of
The Economist
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
September 5, 2024
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
August 27, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Safe D
Likely R
Safe D
November 4, 2024
CNalysis
Safe D
Very Likely R
Solid D
November 4, 2024
538
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
July 15, 2024
CNN
Safe D
Lean R
Safe D
January 14, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
June 29, 2023
Inside Elections
Safe D
Lean R
Likely D
April 26, 2023
NBC News
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
October 6, 2024
YouGov
Safe D
Tossup
Safe D
November 1, 2024
Split Ticket
Safe D
Likely R
Likely D
November 1, 2024
· General election › Polling › Statewide
University of New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
Poll source
University of New Hampshire
Date(s) administered
August 15–19, 2024
Sample size
951 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
58%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Other / Undecided
1%
University of New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
Poll source
University of New Hampshire
Date(s) administered
July 23–25, 2024
Sample size
1,445 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
54%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
1%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire
August 15–19, 2024
951 (LV)
± 3 %
58%
41%
1%
University of New Hampshire
July 23–25, 2024
1,445 (LV)
± 2 %
54%
45%
1%
· General election › Polling › Statewide
University of New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire
Poll source
University of New Hampshire
Date(s) administered
October 29 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
1,485 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
52%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Cornel West Independent
1%
Jill Stein Green
1%
Chase Oliver Libertarian
1%
Other / Undecided
4%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
October 24–29, 2024
Sample size
1,079 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Cornel West Independent
1%
Jill Stein Green
1%
Chase Oliver Libertarian
1%
Other / Undecided
3%
Pan Atlantic Research
Pan Atlantic Research
Poll source
Pan Atlantic Research
Date(s) administered
September 5–15, 2024
Sample size
812 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Cornel West Independent
1%
Jill Stein Green
1%
Chase Oliver Libertarian
1%
Other / Undecided
6%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Cornel West Independent
Jill Stein Green
Chase Oliver Libertarian
Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire
October 29 – November 2, 2024
1,485 (LV)
± 2 %
52%
41%
1%
1%
1%
4%
SurveyUSA
October 24–29, 2024
1,079 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
43%
1%
1%
1%
3%
Pan Atlantic Research
September 5–15, 2024
812 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
41%
1%
1%
1%
6%

References

  1. The names of write-in votes were only published as "Others".
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. "Another Candidate" with 1%
  4. "Another Candidate" with 21%
  5. "Some other candidate" with 10%
  6. "Another Candidate" with 23%
  7. "Third-party candidate" with 3%
  8. "Another Candidate" with 19%
  9. UOCAVA ballots, totaling 5,310 for Harris, 986 for Trump, and 273 for another candidate, are not delineated by geography
  10. Poll sponsored by Bangor Daily News & FairVote
  11. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  12. Poll sponsored by the NRCC
  13. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  14. Sabato's Crystal Ball
    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/how-the-states-vote-relative-to-the-nation-a-2024-update/
  15. Maine Secretary of State
    https://www.maine.gov/sos/elections-voting/election-results-data/election-results-2024#presidential-primary
  16. Maine Secretary of State
    https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results24.html
  17. CNN
    https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/28/politics/trump-maine-14th-amendment-ballot/index.html
  18. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/02/us/politics/trump-maine-ballot-appeal.html
  19. newscentermaine
    https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/maine-politics/maine-secretary-of-state-shenna-bellows-appeal-donald-trump-ballot/97-f2887f3e-72cf-493d-aed4-cf977309b291
  20. Donald J. Trump v. Secretary of State et al., 2024 ME 5
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