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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. For most of the race, Iowa was expected to be a safe red state, though a poll performed by Selzer and Co. and published by The Des Moines Register on November 2 claimed Harris to be up by 3%, leading some to predict a far closer race than initially expected. Nonetheless, Democrats did not seriously contest the state. In the election, Donald Trump won the state in a landslide, winning the state by 13 percentage points, the widest margin for any candidate since 1972. This was the first time a Republican won the state by double digits since 1980, and the first time any presidential nominee had done so since 1996.

Infobox

Turnout
74 % (1 pp)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
6
Popular vote
927,019
Percentage
55 %

Tables

2024 Iowa Democratic caucuses · Caucuses › Democratic caucuses
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
12,337
%
90
Delegates
40
Dean Phillips
Dean Phillips
Candidate
Dean Phillips
Votes
394
%
2
Delegates
0
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
307
%
2
Delegates
0
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
614
%
4
Delegates
0
Over and under votes
Over and under votes
Candidate
Over and under votes
Votes
17
%
0
Delegates
—
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
13,669
%
100%
Delegates
40
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
12,337
90
40
Dean Phillips
394
2
0
Marianne Williamson
307
2
0
Uncommitted
614
4
0
Over and under votes
17
0
—
Total
13,669
100%
40
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024 · Caucuses › Republican caucuses
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
56,243
Percentage
51 %
Actual delegate count
20
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
20
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis
Candidate
Ron DeSantis
Votes
23,491
Percentage
21 %
Actual delegate count
9
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
9
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley
Candidate
Nikki Haley
Votes
21,027
Percentage
19 %
Actual delegate count
8
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
8
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy
Votes
8,430
Percentage
7 %
Actual delegate count
3
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
3
Ryan Binkley
Ryan Binkley
Candidate
Ryan Binkley
Votes
768
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Asa Hutchinson
Asa Hutchinson
Candidate
Asa Hutchinson
Votes
188
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Other
Other
Candidate
Other
Votes
90
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
35
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
110,272
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
40
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
40
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
56,243
51 %
20
0
20
Ron DeSantis
23,491
21 %
9
0
9
Nikki Haley
21,027
19 %
8
0
8
Vivek Ramaswamy
8,430
7 %
3
0
3
Ryan Binkley
768
0 %
0
0
0
Asa Hutchinson
188
0 %
0
0
0
Other
90
0 %
0
0
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
35
0 %
0
0
0
Total:
110,272
100 %
40
0
40
2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses · Caucuses › Libertarian caucuses
Chase Oliver
Chase Oliver
Candidate
Chase Oliver
Votes
38
Percentage
42
Michael Rectenwald
Michael Rectenwald
Candidate
Michael Rectenwald
Votes
15
Percentage
16
Mike ter Maat
Mike ter Maat
Candidate
Mike ter Maat
Votes
12
Percentage
13
Joshua Smith
Joshua Smith
Candidate
Joshua Smith
Votes
12
Percentage
13
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy
Votes
4
Percentage
4
Mario Perales
Mario Perales
Candidate
Mario Perales
Votes
2
Percentage
2
Robert Sansone
Robert Sansone
Candidate
Robert Sansone
Votes
2
Percentage
2
Jacob Hornberger
Jacob Hornberger
Candidate
Jacob Hornberger
Votes
1
Percentage
1
Lars Mapstead
Lars Mapstead
Candidate
Lars Mapstead
Votes
1
Percentage
1
Art Olivier
Art Olivier
Candidate
Art Olivier
Votes
1
Percentage
1
None of the above
None of the above
Candidate
None of the above
Votes
1
Percentage
1
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
89
Percentage
100
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Chase Oliver
38
42
Michael Rectenwald
15
16
Mike ter Maat
12
13
Joshua Smith
12
13
Vivek Ramaswamy
4
4
Mario Perales
2
2
Robert Sansone
2
2
Jacob Hornberger
1
1
Lars Mapstead
1
1
Art Olivier
1
1
None of the above
1
1
Total
89
100
· General election › Predictions
Likely R
Likely R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 4, 2024
Tilt R
Tilt R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tilt R
As of
November 4, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 4, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 3, 2024
Tilt R
Tilt R
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Tilt R
As of
November 4, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid R
As of
November 3, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 3, 2024
Likely R
Likely R
Source
538
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 3, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Solid R
As of
November 3, 2024
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 2, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
November 4, 2024
Inside Elections
Tilt R
November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Likely R
November 3, 2024
CNalysis
Tilt R
November 4, 2024
CNN
Solid R
November 3, 2024
The Economist
Safe R
November 3, 2024
538
Likely R
November 3, 2024
NBC News
Solid R
November 3, 2024
Split Ticket
Lean R
November 2, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 2 – November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
45 %
Donald Trump Republican
50 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +4 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 3, 2024
Dates updated
November 4, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
45 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +4 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
45 %
Dates updated
49 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
4 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +4 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 2 – November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
45 %
50 %
4 %
Trump +4 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 3, 2024
November 4, 2024
45 %
49 %
4 %
Trump +4 %
Average
45 %
49 %
4 %
Trump +4 %

References

  1. While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  4. "Other" with 1%
  5. "Someone else" with 1%
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Not sure" with 3%; "Don't want to say" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  8. "Someone else" with 15%
  9. "Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%
  10. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  11. Poll sponsored by RealClearDefense
  12. Poll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  13. Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
  14. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  15. Poll conducted for American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce
  16. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  17. 270toWin
    https://www.270towin.com/
  18. The Des Moines Register
    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
  19. amp
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/02/harris-unexpected-lead-over-trump-iowa-selzer-poll
  20. Townhall
    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2024/11/04/analysis-what-to-make-of-the-shock-poll-showing-harris-ahead-iniowa-n2647183
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