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2024 United States presidential election in Indiana

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Indiana

A presidential election was held in Indiana on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Indiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Republican Donald Trump won Indiana for the third time in a row, with a comfortable margin of 18 %; he had swept the state in the previous two presidential election cycles with former Governor of Indiana Mike Pence on the ticket: by 19% in 2016 and by 16% in 2020. This makes the first time since 2008 that it voted for the winner of the national popular vote. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a red state. Trump flipped Tippecanoe County, which voted for him in 2016 but not in 2020. He also improved his margins in most other counties in the state, notably in Lake County, home to Gary and parts of the Chicago Metropolitan Area, which is also the most longtime Democratic county in the state. Despite Trump losing it by 5 points, this was the best performance by a Republican in this county since 1972, when Nixon carried it as part of his national landslide victory. Despite Democrat Kamala Harris's loss, she slightly improved on Joe Biden's margins of defeat in a handful of suburban Indianapolis counties — most notably Hamilton, which went for Trump by less than 7% in both this election and 2020; and Boone, in which she became the first presidential Democrat to garner over 40% of the vote since Lyndon Johnson, who lost the county by a mere 4 % in 1964. With Harris narrowly winning St. Joseph County, home to South Bend, this was the first election since 1976 in which said county did not vote for the winner of the nationwide popular vote.

Infobox

Turnout
61 % ( 3 pp)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
11
Popular vote
1,720,347
Percentage
58 %

Tables

Indiana Democratic primary, May 7, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
178,253
%
100
Delegates
79
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
178,253
%
100%
Delegates
79
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
178,253
100
79
Total
178,253
100%
79
Indiana Republican primary, May 7, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
461,678
Percentage
78 %
Actual delegate count
58
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
128,170
Percentage
21 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
589,848
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
58
Actual delegate count
58
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
461,678
78 %
58
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
128,170
21 %
Total:
589,848
100 %
58
58
· General election › Predictions
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid R
As of
December 19, 2023
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid R
As of
April 26, 2023
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe R
As of
June 29, 2023
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Safe R
As of
December 14, 2023
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Solid R
As of
December 30, 2023
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid R
As of
January 14, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
June 12, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
538
Ranking
Solid R
As of
September 23, 2024
Solid R
Solid R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Solid R
As of
June 26, 2024
Safe R
Safe R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 6, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid R
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections
Solid R
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Safe R
December 14, 2023
CNalysis
Solid R
December 30, 2023
CNN
Solid R
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Safe R
June 12, 2024
538
Solid R
September 23, 2024
RCP
Solid R
June 26, 2024
NBC News
Safe R
October 6, 2024
· General election › Polling
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 3–28, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
58%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / Undecided
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 28 – September 30, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Kamala Harris Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
ARW Strategies
ARW Strategies
Poll source
ARW Strategies
Date(s) administered
September 23–25, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Kamala Harris Democratic
39%
Other / Undecided
6%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 12–13, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Kamala Harris Democratic
40%
Other / Undecided
3%
58%
58%
Poll source
58%
Date(s) administered
41%
Sample size
1%
Lake Research Partners (D)
Lake Research Partners (D)
Poll source
Lake Research Partners (D)
Date(s) administered
August 26 – September 2, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Kamala Harris Democratic
42%
Other / Undecided
6%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Kamala Harris Democratic
Other / Undecided
ActiVote
October 3–28, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
58%
42%
ActiVote
August 28 – September 30, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
57%
43%
ARW Strategies
September 23–25, 2024
600 (LV)
55%
39%
6%
Emerson College
September 12–13, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
57%
40%
3%
58%
41%
1%
Lake Research Partners (D)
August 26 – September 2, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4 %
52%
42%
6%
John Zogby Strategies
John Zogby Strategies
Poll source
John Zogby Strategies
Date(s) administered
April 13–21, 2024
Sample size
418 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
43%
Other / Undecided
10%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
March 2–5, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
34%
Other / Undecided
11%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 1–4, 2023
Sample size
462 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
29%
Other / Undecided
24%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies
April 13–21, 2024
418 (LV)
47%
43%
10%
Emerson College
March 2–5, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3 %
55%
34%
11%
Emerson College
October 1–4, 2023
462 (RV)
± 4 %
48%
29%
24%

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 1%
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. Poll sponsored by Indy Politics
  5. Poll sponsored by the campaign of Destiny Wells, 2024 Democratic nominee for attorney general
  6. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  7. "Indiana Election Results"
    https://enr.indianavoters.in.gov/site/index.html
  8. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  9. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
    https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  10. uselectionatlas
    https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  11. www
    https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/IN-D
  12. Ballotpedia
    https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates
  13. Indiana Secretary of State
    https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/Primary-Candidate-List-2.9.24-PM.pdf
  14. Indiana Democratic Party
    https://indems.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Indiana-2024-Delegate-Selection-Plan-1.pdf
  15. "Historical Election Results – Primary Election Indiana Election Results May 7, 2024 – US President"
    https://indianavoters.in.gov/ENRHistorical/ElectionResults
  16. "Indiana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024"
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/indiana-president-results
  17. cookpolitical
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings
  18. insideelections
    https://insideelections.com/ratings/president
  19. centerforpolitics
    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/
  20. elections2024 /
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president
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