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2024 United States presidential election in Illinois

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Illinois

The 2024 United States presidential election in Illinois took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Illinois voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Illinois has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College this election, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. Illinois is a strongly blue state in the Great Lakes region anchored by Chicago, with the sparsely populated southern region of the state being culturally influenced by the Upper South and Bible Belt. It has a reputation for being by far the most liberal state in the Great Lakes region. The state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election beginning in 1992 (doing so by at least 10% each time), including voting for Senator Barack Obama from Illinois in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. This was the first election since 1868 in which Illinois did not have 20 or more electoral votes. Illinois was won by the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Illinois shifted noticeably towards Trump, with Harris winning the state by under an 11 point margin, six points down from Biden. The state’s red shift was caused by low Democratic turnout in Cook County (home to Chicago), with Harris receiving about 300,000 fewer votes than Biden in Cook County, while Trump ran marginally ahead of his 2020 raw vote total in Chicago, Cook as a whole, and statewide. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without Kendall County or McLean County. Illinois voted to the right of Colorado for the first time since 1964.

Infobox

Turnout
70 %
Nominee
Kamala Harris
Party
Democratic
Home state
California
Running mate
Tim Walz
Electoral vote
19
Popular vote
3,062,863
Percentage
54 %

Tables

Illinois Democratic primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
739,646
%
91
Delegates
147
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
28,777
%
3
Delegates
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
25,615
%
3
Delegates
0
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Candidate
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Votes
14,513
%
1
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
808,551
%
100%
Delegates
147
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
739,646
91
147
Marianne Williamson
28,777
3
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
25,615
3
0
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
14,513
1
0
Total
808,551
100%
147
Illinois Republican primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
479,556
Percentage
80 %
Actual delegate count
64
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
64
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
86,278
Percentage
14 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
16,990
Percentage
2 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
9,758
Percentage
1 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Votes
3,114
Percentage
0 %
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
0
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
595,696
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
64
Actual delegate count
0
Actual delegate count
64
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
479,556
80 %
64
0
64
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
86,278
14 %
0
0
0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
16,990
2 %
0
0
0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
9,758
1 %
0
0
0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
3,114
0 %
0
0
0
Total:
595,696
100 %
64
0
64
· General election › Predictions
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid D
As of
December 19, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid D
As of
April 26, 2023
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe D
As of
June 29, 2023
Safe D
Safe D
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Safe D
As of
June 13, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Solid D
As of
December 30, 2023
Solid D
Solid D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid D
As of
January 14, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely D
As of
August 23, 2024
Solid D
Solid D
Source
538
Ranking
Solid D
As of
October 2, 2024
Likely D
Likely D
Source
RCP
Ranking
Likely D
As of
June 26, 2024
Safe D
Safe D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe D
As of
October 6, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
Cook Political Report
Solid D
December 19, 2023
Inside Elections
Solid D
April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Safe D
June 13, 2024
CNalysis
Solid D
December 30, 2023
CNN
Solid D
January 14, 2024
The Economist
Likely D
August 23, 2024
538
Solid D
October 2, 2024
RCP
Likely D
June 26, 2024
NBC News
Safe D
October 6, 2024
· General election › Polling
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 4–28, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
58%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 3 – October 5, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
59%
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Other / Undecided
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
August 6–29, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
58%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
ActiVote
October 4–28, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
58%
42%
ActiVote
September 3 – October 5, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
59%
41%
ActiVote
August 6–29, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
58%
42%
John Zogby Strategies
John Zogby Strategies
Poll source
John Zogby Strategies
Date(s) administered
April 13–21, 2024
Sample size
643 (LV)
Margin of error
Joe Biden Democratic
53%
Donald Trump Republican
40%
Other / Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 1–4, 2023
Sample size
468 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Joe Biden Democratic
43%
Donald Trump Republican
34%
Other / Undecided
23%
Cor Strategies
Cor Strategies
Poll source
Cor Strategies
Date(s) administered
August 24–27, 2023
Sample size
811 (RV)
Margin of error
Joe Biden Democratic
55%
Donald Trump Republican
35%
Other / Undecided
10%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 20–24, 2022
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
37%
Other / Undecided
14%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
October 10–11, 2022
Sample size
770 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Other / Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 21–23, 2022
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Donald Trump Republican
38%
Other / Undecided
11%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies
April 13–21, 2024
643 (LV)
53%
40%
7%
Emerson College
October 1–4, 2023
468 (RV)
± 4 %
43%
34%
23%
Cor Strategies
August 24–27, 2023
811 (RV)
55%
35%
10%
Emerson College
October 20–24, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
37%
14%
Public Policy Polling (D)
October 10–11, 2022
770 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
42%
7%
Emerson College
September 21–23, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
38%
11%

References

  1. The state party only nominated Joe Biden as a candidate, cancelling the primary.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by WGN-TV
  5. Poll sponsored by WBEZ & The Chicago Sun-Times
  6. "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats"
    https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats
  7. "Trump's inroads in Chicago driven by staggering dropoff in votes for Democrats"
    https://www.wbez.org/government-politics/elections/2024/11/16/trumps-inroads-in-chicago-driven-by-staggering-dropoff-in-votes-for-democrats
  8. Illinois State Board of Elections
    https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx
  9. "Illinois Presidential Primary"
    https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/illinois/?r=14999
  10. Illinois Green Party
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240919083449/https://www.ilgp.org/2024-ilgp-presidential-selection-begins/
  11. The State Journal-Register
    https://www.sj-r.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/27/rfk-jr-suspends-campaign-is-he-staying-on-the-illinois-ballot/74922876007/
  12. USA TODAY
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/12/dnc-2024-convention-dates-location/74765710007/
  13. NPR
    https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/nx-s1-5068593/chicago-68-democratic-national-convention
  14. cookpolitical
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/presidential-race-ratings
  15. insideelections
    https://insideelections.com/ratings/president
  16. centerforpolitics
    https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2024-president/
  17. elections2024 /
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/predictions/president
  18. projects /
    https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president
  19. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270"
    https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map
  20. The Economist
    https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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