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2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024. Donald Trump won by 5 percent. The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump. Formerly a moderately red state, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3 %, a reduced margin of Republican victory compared to previous cycles, despite a more favorable presidential election year for the GOP nationwide. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0 %. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61 % of the state's population, the state was now considered a purple state. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn. Donald Trump won Arizona by 5 %, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls. This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in any of the seven key swing states, all of which he won. It was also Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.

Infobox

Turnout
78 % (of registered voters) 1 pp
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
JD Vance
Electoral vote
11
Popular vote
1,770,242
Percentage
52 %

Tables

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Candidate
Joe Biden (incumbent)
Votes
375,110
%
89
Delegates
72
Marianne Williamson
Marianne Williamson
Candidate
Marianne Williamson
Votes
15,844
%
3
Delegates
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Candidate
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
Votes
11,611
%
2
Delegates
0
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)
Candidate
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)
Votes
6,128
%
1
Delegates
0
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Candidate
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
Votes
4,976
%
1
Delegates
0
Jason Palmer
Jason Palmer
Candidate
Jason Palmer
Votes
3,752
%
0
Delegates
0
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)
Candidate
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)
Votes
2,753
%
0
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
420,174
%
100%
Delegates
72
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden (incumbent)
375,110
89
72
Marianne Williamson
15,844
3
0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)
11,611
2
0
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)
6,128
1
0
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)
4,976
1
0
Jason Palmer
3,752
0
0
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)
2,753
0
0
Total
420,174
100%
72
Arizona Republican primary, March 19, 2024 · Primary elections › Republican primary
Bound
Bound
Candidate
Bound
Votes
Unbound
Percentage
Total
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
492,299
Percentage
78 %
Actual delegate count
43
Actual delegate count
43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
Votes
110,966
Percentage
17 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
Votes
10,131
Percentage
1 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Candidate
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
Votes
5,078
Percentage
0 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Candidate
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Votes
2,479
Percentage
0 %
David Stuckenberg
David Stuckenberg
Candidate
David Stuckenberg
Votes
1,367
Percentage
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Candidate
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
Votes
891
Percentage
0 %
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
Votes
714
Percentage
0 %
John Anthony Castro
John Anthony Castro
Candidate
John Anthony Castro
Votes
505
Percentage
0 %
Total:
Total:
Candidate
Total:
Votes
624,430
Percentage
100 %
Actual delegate count
43
Actual delegate count
43
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
492,299
78 %
43
43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)
110,966
17 %
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)
10,131
1 %
Chris Christie (withdrawn)
5,078
0 %
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
2,479
0 %
David Stuckenberg
1,367
0 %
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)
891
0 %
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)
714
0 %
John Anthony Castro
505
0 %
Total:
624,430
100 %
43
43
· General election › Predictions
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CNN
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Tilt R (flip)
Tilt R (flip)
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Tilt R (flip)
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
538
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
November 4, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 3, 2024
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 4, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R (flip)
November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Tossup
November 4, 2024
CNN
Tossup
November 4, 2024
CNalysis
Tilt R (flip)
November 4, 2024
The Economist
Lean R (flip)
November 4, 2024
538
Lean R (flip)
November 4, 2024
Inside Elections
Tossup
November 3, 2024
NBC News
Tossup
November 4, 2024
· General election › Polling
270ToWin
270ToWin
Source of poll aggregation
270ToWin
Dates administered
October 22 – November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +1 %
538
538
Source of poll aggregation
538
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Other / Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
Silver Bulletin
Silver Bulletin
Source of poll aggregation
Silver Bulletin
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
The Hill/DDHQ
The Hill/DDHQ
Source of poll aggregation
The Hill/DDHQ
Dates administered
through November 4, 2024
Dates updated
November 5, 2024
Kamala Harris Democratic
47 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other / Undecided
2 %
Margin
Trump +2 %
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
47 %
Dates updated
49 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
3 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +2 %
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
Margin
270ToWin
October 22 – November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
48 %
4 %
Trump +1 %
538
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
48 %
4 %
Trump +2 %
Silver Bulletin
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
46 %
49 %
3 %
Trump +2 %
The Hill/DDHQ
through November 4, 2024
November 5, 2024
47 %
49 %
2 %
Trump +2 %
Average
47 %
49 %
3 %
Trump +2 %
· General election › Polling
HarrisX
HarrisX
Poll source
HarrisX
Date(s) administered
November 3–5, 2024
Sample size
1,636 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
–
1,468 (LV)
1,468 (LV)
Poll source
1,468 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
4%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
–
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 3–4, 2024
Sample size
875 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Other / Undecided
1%
Victory Insights
Victory Insights
Poll source
Victory Insights
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2024
Sample size
750 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
1,090 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
November 1–3, 2024
Sample size
801 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
5%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
November 1–2, 2024
Sample size
967 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Other / Undecided
2%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 30 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
900 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
1%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 25 – November 2, 2024
Sample size
1,025 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
8%
1,025 (LV)
1,025 (LV)
Poll source
1,025 (LV)
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
6%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
October 8 – November 1, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
750 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 30–31, 2024
Sample size
1,005 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
October 29–31, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 25–31, 2024
Sample size
880 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
856 (LV)
856 (LV)
Poll source
856 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 21−30, 2024
Sample size
666 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
October 25–29, 2024
Sample size
803 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 25–29, 2024
Sample size
1,458 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
2%
Mitchell Research & Communications
Mitchell Research & Communications
Poll source
Mitchell Research & Communications
Date(s) administered
October 28, 2024
Sample size
610 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
RABA Research
RABA Research
Poll source
RABA Research
Date(s) administered
October 25–27, 2024
Sample size
589 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Other / Undecided
12%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 24–26, 2024
Sample size
1,094 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
CES/YouGov
CES/YouGov
Poll source
CES/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 1–25, 2024
Sample size
2,077 (A)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
2,066 (LV)
2,066 (LV)
Poll source
2,066 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
2%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
October 17–22, 2024
Sample size
1,329 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,193 (LV)
1,193 (LV)
Poll source
1,193 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
October 20–21, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
HighGround
HighGround
Poll source
HighGround
Date(s) administered
October 19–20, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Poll source
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 16–20, 2024
Sample size
915 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
861 (LV)
861 (LV)
Poll source
861 (LV)
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
2%
University of Arizona/Truedot
University of Arizona/Truedot
Poll source
University of Arizona/Truedot
Date(s) administered
October 12–20, 2024
Sample size
846 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Other / Undecided
9%
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
October 12–17, 2024
Sample size
1,440 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
2%
CBS News/YouGov
CBS News/YouGov
Poll source
CBS News/YouGov
Date(s) administered
October 11−16, 2024
Sample size
1,435 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 6−15, 2024
Sample size
653 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
The Washington Post/Schar School
The Washington Post/Schar School
Poll source
The Washington Post/Schar School
Date(s) administered
September 30 – October 15, 2024
Sample size
580 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
44%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
6%
580 (LV)
580 (LV)
Poll source
580 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
October 10–13, 2024
Sample size
1,090 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
6%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
October 7–10, 2024
Sample size
808 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
4%
808 (LV)
808 (LV)
Poll source
808 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Date(s) administered
October 6–9, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
October 5–8, 2024
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
1%
The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal
Poll source
The Wall Street Journal
Date(s) administered
September 28 – October 8, 2024
Sample size
600 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
ActiVote
ActiVote
Poll source
ActiVote
Date(s) administered
September 6 – October 8, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
51%
Other / Undecided
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
SoCal Strategies (R)
Poll source
SoCal Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
October 5–7, 2024
Sample size
735 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s) administered
September 30 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
783 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
4%
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 2, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 24 – October 1, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Poll source
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Date(s) administered
September 29–30, 2024
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
1%
HighGround
HighGround
Poll source
HighGround
Date(s) administered
September 26–29, 2024
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
6%
National Research
National Research
Poll source
National Research
Date(s) administered
September 25–29, 2024
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Poll source
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)
Date(s) administered
September 23–29, 2024
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 27–28, 2024
Sample size
920 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
3%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
–
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
September 20–25, 2024
Sample size
946 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
49%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Poll source
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
Date(s) administered
September 19–25, 2024
Sample size
409 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Other / Undecided
2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Poll source
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 19–25, 2024
Sample size
977 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
50%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
3%
926 (LV)
926 (LV)
Poll source
926 (LV)
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
3%
Fox News
Fox News
Poll source
Fox News
Date(s) administered
September 20−24, 2024
Sample size
1,021 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
764 (LV)
764 (LV)
Poll source
764 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
51%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Marist College
Marist College
Poll source
Marist College
Date(s) administered
September 19−24, 2024
Sample size
1,416 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Other / Undecided
2%
1,264 (LV)
1,264 (LV)
Poll source
1,264 (LV)
Date(s) administered
± 3 %
Sample size
49%
Margin of error
50%
Kamala Harris Democratic
1%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
September 19–22, 2024
Sample size
1,030 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
The New York Times/Siena College
The New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
The New York Times/Siena College
Date(s) administered
September 17–21, 2024
Sample size
713 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
45%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
6%
713 (LV)
713 (LV)
Poll source
713 (LV)
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
5%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
September 15–18, 2024
Sample size
868 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
3%
49%
49%
Poll source
49%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
1%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 9−18, 2024
Sample size
862 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
48%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
September 11–12, 2024
Sample size
1,088 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
September 7–9, 2024
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 30 – September 8, 2024
Sample size
901 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
TIPP Insights
TIPP Insights
Poll source
TIPP Insights
Date(s) administered
September 3–5, 2024
Sample size
1,015 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kamala Harris Democratic
46%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
949 (LV)
949 (LV)
Poll source
949 (LV)
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
6%
Patriot Polling
Patriot Polling
Poll source
Patriot Polling
Date(s) administered
September 1–3, 2024
Sample size
804 (RV)
Margin of error
–
Kamala Harris Democratic
47%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Other / Undecided
4%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kamala Harris Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other / Undecided
HarrisX
November 3–5, 2024
1,636 (RV)
± 2 %
46%
47%
7%
49%
51%
–
1,468 (LV)
47%
49%
4%
49%
51%
–
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
875 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
52%
1%
Victory Insights
November 2–3, 2024
750 (LV)
–
48%
49%
3%
Trafalgar Group (R)
November 1–3, 2024
1,090 (LV)
± 2 %
47%
49%
4%
Patriot Polling
November 1–3, 2024
801 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
51%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
November 1–2, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
49%
5%
AtlasIntel
November 1–2, 2024
967 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
52%
2%
Emerson College
October 30 – November 2, 2024
900 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
50%
2%
48%
51%
1%
The New York Times/Siena College
October 25 – November 2, 2024
1,025 (RV)
± 3 %
44%
48%
8%
1,025 (LV)
45%
49%
6%
ActiVote
October 8 – November 1, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
51%
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
October 30–31, 2024
750 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
50%
1%
AtlasIntel
October 30–31, 2024
1,005 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
51%
2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
October 29–31, 2024
800 (LV)
–
47%
50%
3%
YouGov
October 25–31, 2024
880 (RV)
± 4 %
49%
50%
1%
856 (LV)
49%
50%
1%
Morning Consult
October 21−30, 2024
666 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
48%
4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
October 25–29, 2024
803 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
48%
6%
AtlasIntel
October 25–29, 2024
1,458 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
51%
2%
Mitchell Research & Communications
October 28, 2024
610 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
50%
2%
RABA Research
October 25–27, 2024
589 (RV)
± 4 %
45%
43%
12%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 24–26, 2024
1,094 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
48%
6%
CES/YouGov
October 1–25, 2024
2,077 (A)
–
49%
49%
2%
2,066 (LV)
47%
51%
2%
Marist College
October 17–22, 2024
1,329 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
1,193 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
50%
1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)
October 20–21, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
50%
3%
HighGround
October 19–20, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
47%
7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
October 16–20, 2024
915 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
861 (LV)
49%
49%
2%
University of Arizona/Truedot
October 12–20, 2024
846 (RV)
± 3 %
46%
45%
9%
AtlasIntel
October 12–17, 2024
1,440 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
49%
2%
CBS News/YouGov
October 11−16, 2024
1,435 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
51%
1%
Morning Consult
October 6−15, 2024
653 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
48%
3%
The Washington Post/Schar School
September 30 – October 15, 2024
580 (RV)
± 5 %
44%
50%
6%
580 (LV)
46%
49%
5%
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 10–13, 2024
1,090 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
48%
6%
The New York Times/Siena College
October 7–10, 2024
808 (RV)
± 4 %
45%
51%
4%
808 (LV)
46%
51%
3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)
October 6–9, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
49%
5%
Emerson College
October 5–8, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
49%
4%
48%
51%
1%
The Wall Street Journal
September 28 – October 8, 2024
600 (RV)
± 5 %
48%
46%
6%
ActiVote
September 6 – October 8, 2024
400 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
51%
–
SoCal Strategies (R)
October 5–7, 2024
735 (LV)
–
49%
48%
3%

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Other" with 2%
  5. "Other" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 1%
  7. "Someone else" with 7%
  8. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  9. "Someone else" with 3%
  10. "Other" with 3%
  11. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. "Someone else" with 5%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  15. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  16. Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
  17. "Someone else" with 15%
  18. "Another candidate" with 12%
  19. "Another candidate" with 11%
  20. No Labels candidate
Image
Source: —
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