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2024 United States Senate election in Montana

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Republican businessman Tim Sheehy won his first term in office, defeating Democratic three-term incumbent Jon Tester. Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy later gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting. Tester, a renowned centrist liberal, was first elected in 2006, when he narrowly defeated incumbent Republican senator Conrad Burns, and was reelected in 2012 and 2018. However, come Election Day in 2024, his vulnerability came to fruition as he lost his bid for a fourth term to Tim Sheehy by around 7 percentage points. Sheehy received roughly 52 % of the statewide vote to Tester's 45 %. Despite his loss, Tester still vastly outperformed Kamala Harris, who lost the state to Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential race by just under 20 percentage points. Tester also carried six counties that Trump concurrently won: Big Horn, Blaine, Hill, Lewis and Clark (Helena), Roosevelt, and Park. Tester received over 44,000 more raw votes than Harris, while Sheehy received over 32,000 less raw votes than Trump. Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tester was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. All three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. This race was one of two 2024 U . Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. With Sheehy's victory, Republicans held both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911.

Infobox

Turnout
75 % (of registered voters) 4
Nominee
Tim Sheehy
Party
Republican
Popular vote
319,682
Percentage
52 %

Tables

· Democratic primary › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$37,330,566
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$26,017,759
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$11,793,381
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
$37,330,566
$26,017,759
$11,793,381
Source: Federal Election Commission
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
107,551
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Jon Tester (incumbent)
104,279
96 %
Democratic
Michael Hummert
3,272
3 %
Total votes
107,551
100 %
· Republican primary › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Cash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)
Brad Johnson (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Brad Johnson (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$42,967
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$39,697
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$10,547,437
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$8,324,164
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)
$42,967
$39,697
$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)
$10,547,437
$8,324,164
$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission
· Republican primary › Polling
co/efficient (R)
co/efficient (R)
Poll source
co/efficient (R)
Date(s) administered
November 12–14, 2023
Sample size
888 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
24%
Tim Sheehy
40%
Other / Undecided
36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Date(s) administered
October 23–25, 2023
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Brad Johnson
6%
Matt Rosendale
35%
Tim Sheehy
38%
Other / Undecided
21%
0%
0%
Poll source
0%
Date(s) administered
41%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
15%
J . Partners
J . Partners
Poll source
J . Partners
Date(s) administered
August 12–17, 2023
Sample size
418 (LV)
Margin of error
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
52%
Tim Sheehy
21%
Other / Undecided
28%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
June 19–20, 2023
Sample size
510 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
64%
Tim Sheehy
10%
Other / Undecided
26%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
Tim Sheehy
Other / Undecided
co/efficient (R)
November 12–14, 2023
888 (LV)
± 3 %
24%
40%
36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
October 23–25, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4 %
6%
35%
38%
21%
0%
41%
44%
15%
J . Partners
August 12–17, 2023
418 (LV)
52%
21%
28%
Public Policy Polling (D)
June 19–20, 2023
510 (LV)
± 4 %
64%
10%
26%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
February 18–21, 2023
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Russell Fagg
2%
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
36%
Tim Sheehy
2%
Corey Stapleton
6%
Ryan Zinke
26%
Other / Undecided
28%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Russell Fagg
Brad Johnson
Matt Rosendale
Tim Sheehy
Corey Stapleton
Ryan Zinke
Other / Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)
February 18–21, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4 %
2%
36%
2%
6%
26%
28%

References

  1. $30,000 of this total was self-funded by Johnson
  2. $2,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  3. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  4. Jeremy Mygland with 1%
  5. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. $2,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  7. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  9. Daoud (L) with 1%; Barb (G) with 1%
  10. Daoud (L) with 4%; Barb (G) with 2%
  11. Sid Daoud (L) with 1%
  12. Sid Daoud (L) with 4%; Michael Downey with 1%
  13. Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 1%
  14. Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 2%
  15. Sid Daoud (L) with 4%
  16. Poll sponsored by The Hill.
  17. Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  18. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  19. Poll commissioned by the Napolitan Institute
  20. Poll sponsored by AARP.
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