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2024 United States Senate election in Montana

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States Senate election in Montana

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated by Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy later gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting. Along with Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tester was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. All three were first elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in 2012 and 2018. This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. With Sheehy's victory, Republicans held both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911.

Infobox

Party
Republican
Nominee
Tim Sheehy
Turnout
75.92% (of registered voters) 4.39
Percentage
52.64%
Popular vote
319,682

Tables

· Democratic primary › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$37,330,566
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$26,017,759
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$11,793,381
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
$37,330,566
$26,017,759
$11,793,381
Source: Federal Election Commission
Democratic primary results[35] · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
107,551
Candidate
100.00%
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Jon Tester (incumbent)
104,279
96.96%
Democratic
Michael Hummert
3,272
3.04%
Total votes
107,551
100.00%
· Republican primary › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Cash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)
Brad Johnson (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Brad Johnson (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$42,967
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$39,697
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$10,547,437
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$8,324,164
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)
$42,967
$39,697
$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)
$10,547,437
$8,324,164
$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission
· Republican primary › Polling
co/efficient (R)
co/efficient (R)
Poll source
co/efficient (R)
Date(s)administered
November 12–14, 2023
Samplesize
888 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.3%
BradJohnson
–
MattRosendale
24%
TimSheehy
40%
Other /Undecided
36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Date(s)administered
October 23–25, 2023
Samplesize
600 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
BradJohnson
6%
MattRosendale
35%
TimSheehy
38%
Other /Undecided
21%
0%
0%
Poll source
0%
Date(s)administered
41%
Samplesize
44%
Marginof error
15%
J.L. Partners
J.L. Partners
Poll source
J.L. Partners
Date(s)administered
August 12–17, 2023
Samplesize
418 (LV)
Marginof error
–
BradJohnson
–
MattRosendale
52%
TimSheehy
21%
Other /Undecided
28%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s)administered
June 19–20, 2023
Samplesize
510 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.3%
BradJohnson
–
MattRosendale
64%
TimSheehy
10%
Other /Undecided
26%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
BradJohnson
MattRosendale
TimSheehy
Other /Undecided
co/efficient (R)
November 12–14, 2023
888 (LV)
± 3.3%
–
24%
40%
36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
October 23–25, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
6%
35%
38%
21%
0%
41%
44%
15%
Partners
August 12–17, 2023
418 (LV)
–
–
52%
21%
28%
Public Policy Polling (D)
June 19–20, 2023
510 (LV)
± 4.3%
–
64%
10%
26%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s)administered
February 18–21, 2023
Samplesize
600 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
RussellFagg
2%
BradJohnson
–
MattRosendale
36%
TimSheehy
2%
CoreyStapleton
6%
RyanZinke
26%
Other /Undecided
28%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
RussellFagg
BradJohnson
MattRosendale
TimSheehy
CoreyStapleton
RyanZinke
Other /Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)
February 18–21, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
2%
–
36%
2%
6%
26%
28%
Republican primary results[35] · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
190,012
Candidate
100.00%
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Tim Sheehy
139,857
73.60%
Republican
Brad Johnson
36,926
19.43%
Republican
Charles Walkingchild Sr.
13,229
6.96%
Total votes
190,012
100.00%
Green primary results[35] · Green primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
1,089
Candidate
100.0%
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Green
Michael Downey
679
62.4%
Green
Robert Barb
410
37.6%
Total votes
1,089
100.0%
· General election › Predictions
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
September 12, 2024
Tilt R (flip)
Tilt R (flip)
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tilt R (flip)
As of
September 12, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
September 6, 2024
Likely R (flip)
Likely R (flip)
Source
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Ranking
Likely R (flip)
As of
October 20, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
Elections Daily
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
August 9, 2024
Tilt R (flip)
Tilt R (flip)
Source
CNalysis
Ranking
Tilt R (flip)
As of
November 4, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
RealClearPolitics
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
September 12, 2024
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Source
Split Ticket
Ranking
Lean R (flip)
As of
October 23, 2024
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Lean R (flip)
September 12, 2024
Inside Elections
Tilt R (flip)
September 12, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R (flip)
September 6, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill
Likely R (flip)
October 20, 2024
Elections Daily
Lean R (flip)
August 9, 2024
CNalysis
Tilt R (flip)
November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics
Lean R (flip)
September 12, 2024
Split Ticket
Lean R (flip)
October 23, 2024
· General election › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Jon Tester (D)
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$88,163,151
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$84,499,372
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$4,144,352
Tim Sheehy (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Tim Sheehy (R)
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$26,161,679
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$22,284,629
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
$3,877,050
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Jon Tester (D)
$88,163,151
$84,499,372
$4,144,352
Tim Sheehy (R)
$26,161,679
$22,284,629
$3,877,050
Source: Federal Election Commission
· General election › Debates
June 10, 2024
June 10, 2024
Dates
June 10, 2024
Host
Montana Broadcasters Association
Tester
Participant
Sheehy
Participant
Link
YouTube
September 30, 2024
September 30, 2024
Dates
September 30, 2024
Host
Montana PBS
Tester
Participant
Sheehy
Participant
Link
YouTube
Dates
Host
Tester
Sheehy
Link
June 10, 2024
Montana Broadcasters Association
Participant
Participant
YouTube
September 30, 2024
Montana PBS
Participant
Participant
YouTube
· General election › Polling
RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics
Source of pollaggregation
RealClearPolitics
Datesadministered
October 5 – November 4, 2024
Datesupdated
November 4, 2024
TimSheehy (R)
50.7%
JonTester (D)
43.0%
Undecided
6.3%
Margin
Sheehy +7.7%
538
538
Source of pollaggregation
538
Datesadministered
through November 4, 2024
Datesupdated
November 4, 2024
TimSheehy (R)
49.7%
JonTester (D)
42.7%
Undecided
7.6%
Margin
Sheehy +7.0%
270toWin
270toWin
Source of pollaggregation
270toWin
Datesadministered
October 10–27, 2024
Datesupdated
November 4, 2024
TimSheehy (R)
51.0%
JonTester (D)
45.0%
Undecided
4.0%
Margin
Sheehy +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ
TheHill/DDHQ
Source of pollaggregation
TheHill/DDHQ
Datesadministered
through November 4, 2024
Datesupdated
November 4, 2024
TimSheehy (R)
50.0%
JonTester (D)
43.1%
Undecided
6.9%
Margin
Sheehy +6.9%
Average
Average
Source of pollaggregation
Average
Datesadministered
50.4%
Datesupdated
43.5%
TimSheehy (R)
6.1%
JonTester (D)
Sheehy +6.9%
Source of pollaggregation
Datesadministered
Datesupdated
TimSheehy (R)
JonTester (D)
Undecided
Margin
RealClearPolitics
October 5 – November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
50.7%
43.0%
6.3%
Sheehy +7.7%
538
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
49.7%
42.7%
7.6%
Sheehy +7.0%
270toWin
October 10–27, 2024
November 4, 2024
51.0%
45.0%
4.0%
Sheehy +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ
through November 4, 2024
November 4, 2024
50.0%
43.1%
6.9%
Sheehy +6.9%
Average
50.4%
43.5%
6.1%
Sheehy +6.9%
· General election › Polling
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s)administered
November 3–4, 2024
Samplesize
752 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
39%
TimSheehy (R)
50%
Other
5%
Undecided
6%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s)administered
October 23–25, 2024
Samplesize
1,000 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.0%
JonTester (D)
48%
TimSheehy (R)
51%
Other
2%
Undecided
–
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s)administered
50%
Samplesize
2%
Marginof error
3%
MSU Billings
MSU Billings
Poll source
MSU Billings
Date(s)administered
September 30 – October 16, 2024
Samplesize
760 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.6%
JonTester (D)
43%
TimSheehy (R)
43%
Other
6%
Undecided
8%
New York Times/Siena College
New York Times/Siena College
Poll source
New York Times/Siena College
Date(s)administered
October 5–8, 2024
Samplesize
656 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.3%
JonTester (D)
44%
TimSheehy (R)
52%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
656 (RV)
656 (RV)
Poll source
656 (RV)
Date(s)administered
44%
Samplesize
51%
Marginof error
–
JonTester (D)
4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Poll source
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Date(s)administered
September 29 – October 1, 2024
Samplesize
500 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.3%
JonTester (D)
45%
TimSheehy (R)
51%
Other
2%
Undecided
2%
Remington Research Group (R)
Remington Research Group (R)
Poll source
Remington Research Group (R)
Date(s)administered
September 16–20, 2024
Samplesize
800 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.5%
JonTester (D)
44%
TimSheehy (R)
52%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s)administered
September 12–19, 2024
Samplesize
491 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.4%
JonTester (D)
43%
TimSheehy (R)
50%
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D)
Date(s)administered
August 25–29, 2024
Samplesize
600 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
45%
TimSheehy (R)
51%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
41%
41%
Poll source
41%
Date(s)administered
49%
Samplesize
5%
Marginof error
5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Poll source
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Date(s)administered
August 18–20, 2024
Samplesize
500 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.4%
JonTester (D)
44%
TimSheehy (R)
51%
Other
3%
Undecided
2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s)administered
August 13–20, 2024
Samplesize
835 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.0%
JonTester (D)
43%
TimSheehy (R)
50%
Other
–
Undecided
7%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s)administered
August 6–14, 2024
Samplesize
540 (RV)
Marginof error
± 4.2%
JonTester (D)
49%
TimSheehy (R)
44%
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
American Pulse Research & Polling
American Pulse Research & Polling
Poll source
American Pulse Research & Polling
Date(s)administered
August 10–12, 2024
Samplesize
538 (RV)
Marginof error
± 4.2%
JonTester (D)
45%
TimSheehy (R)
51%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s)administered
August 5–6, 2024
Samplesize
1,000 (LV)
Marginof error
± 3.0%
JonTester (D)
46%
TimSheehy (R)
48%
Other
–
Undecided
5%
Expedition Strategies
Expedition Strategies
Poll source
Expedition Strategies
Date(s)administered
June 24 – July 8, 2024
Samplesize
251 (LV)
Marginof error
–
JonTester (D)
47%
TimSheehy (R)
48%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
Remington Research Group (R)
Remington Research Group (R)
Poll source
Remington Research Group (R)
Date(s)administered
June 29 – July 1, 2024
Samplesize
570 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
45%
TimSheehy (R)
50%
Other
–
Undecided
5%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Poll source
Torchlight Strategies (R)
Date(s)administered
June 22–26, 2024
Samplesize
649 (RV)
Marginof error
± 3.9%
JonTester (D)
41%
TimSheehy (R)
47%
Other
5%
Undecided
7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Poll source
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Date(s)administered
June 11–13, 2024
Samplesize
500 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.4%
JonTester (D)
46%
TimSheehy (R)
46%
Other
4%
Undecided
4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
Date(s)administered
June 3–5, 2024
Samplesize
500 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.4%
JonTester (D)
48%
TimSheehy (R)
48%
Other
–
Undecided
4%
43%
43%
Poll source
43%
Date(s)administered
46%
Samplesize
4%
Marginof error
7%
J.L. Partners
J.L. Partners
Poll source
J.L. Partners
Date(s)administered
March 26–29, 2024
Samplesize
503 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.3%
JonTester (D)
45%
TimSheehy (R)
48%
Other
–
Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s)administered
February 26 – March 2, 2024
Samplesize
1,000 (RV)
Marginof error
± 3.0%
JonTester (D)
44%
TimSheehy (R)
42%
Other
–
Undecided
14%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s)administered
February 12–15, 2024
Samplesize
549 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.5%
JonTester (D)
49%
TimSheehy (R)
40%
Other
3%
Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s)administered
October 1–4, 2023
Samplesize
447 (RV)
Marginof error
± 4.6%
JonTester (D)
39%
TimSheehy (R)
35%
Other
6%
Undecided
21%
J.L. Partners
J.L. Partners
Poll source
J.L. Partners
Date(s)administered
August 12–17, 2023
Samplesize
741 (LV)
Marginof error
–
JonTester (D)
42%
TimSheehy (R)
46%
Other
–
Undecided
12%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
JonTester (D)
TimSheehy (R)
Other
Undecided
AtlasIntel
November 3–4, 2024
752 (LV)
± 4.0%
39%
50%
5%
6%
Emerson College
October 23–25, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
48%
51%
2%
–
46%
50%
2%
3%
MSU Billings
September 30 – October 16, 2024
760 (LV)
± 3.6%
43%
43%
6%
8%
New York Times/Siena College
October 5–8, 2024
656 (LV)
± 4.3%
44%
52%
–
4%
656 (RV)
44%
51%
–
4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
September 29 – October 1, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.3%
45%
51%
2%
2%
Remington Research Group (R)
September 16–20, 2024
800 (LV)
± 3.5%
44%
52%
–
4%
RMG Research
September 12–19, 2024
491 (LV)
± 4.4%
43%
50%
2%
4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D)
August 25–29, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
45%
51%
–
4%
41%
49%
5%
5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
August 18–20, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
44%
51%
3%
2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
August 13–20, 2024
835 (LV)
± 3.0%
43%
50%
–
7%
RMG Research
August 6–14, 2024
540 (RV)
± 4.2%
49%
44%
2%
4%
American Pulse Research & Polling
August 10–12, 2024
538 (RV)
± 4.2%
45%
51%
–
4%
Emerson College
August 5–6, 2024
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
46%
48%
–
5%
Expedition Strategies
June 24 – July 8, 2024
251 (LV)
–
47%
48%
–
4%
Remington Research Group (R)
June 29 – July 1, 2024
570 (LV)
± 4.0%
45%
50%
–
5%
Torchlight Strategies (R)
June 22–26, 2024
649 (RV)
± 3.9%
41%
47%
5%
7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
June 11–13, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
46%
46%
4%
4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
June 3–5, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
48%
48%
–
4%
43%
46%
4%
7%
Partners
March 26–29, 2024
503 (LV)
± 4.3%
45%
48%
–
7%
Emerson College
February 26 – March 2, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
44%
42%
–
14%
SurveyUSA
February 12–15, 2024
549 (LV)
± 4.5%
49%
40%
3%
7%
Emerson College
October 1–4, 2023
447 (RV)
± 4.6%
39%
35%
6%
21%
Partners
August 12–17, 2023
741 (LV)
–
42%
46%
–
12%
Political Company (R)
Political Company (R)
Poll source
Political Company (R)
Date(s)administered
January 30 – February 1, 2023
Samplesize
534 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
45%
GregGianforte (R)
45%
Undecided
10%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
JonTester (D)
GregGianforte (R)
Undecided
Political Company (R)
January 30 – February 1, 2023
534 (LV)
± 4.0%
45%
45%
10%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s)administered
February 12–15, 2024
Samplesize
549 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.5%
JonTester (D)
50%
BradJohnson (R)
35%
Other
4%
Undecided
11%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
JonTester (D)
BradJohnson (R)
Other
Undecided
SurveyUSA
February 12–15, 2024
549 (LV)
± 4.5%
50%
35%
4%
11%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s)administered
February 12–15, 2024
Samplesize
549 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.5%
JonTester (D)
49%
MattRosendale (R)
40%
Other
4%
Undecided
7%
J.L. Partners
J.L. Partners
Poll source
J.L. Partners
Date(s)administered
August 12–17, 2023
Samplesize
741 (LV)
Marginof error
–
JonTester (D)
43%
MattRosendale (R)
46%
Other
–
Undecided
11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s)administered
February 18–21, 2023
Samplesize
600 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
41%
MattRosendale (R)
46%
Other
5%
Undecided
7%
Political Company (R)
Political Company (R)
Poll source
Political Company (R)
Date(s)administered
January 30 – February 1, 2023
Samplesize
534 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
45%
MattRosendale (R)
40%
Other
–
Undecided
15%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
JonTester (D)
MattRosendale (R)
Other
Undecided
SurveyUSA
February 12–15, 2024
549 (LV)
± 4.5%
49%
40%
4%
7%
Partners
August 12–17, 2023
741 (LV)
–
43%
46%
–
11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
February 18–21, 2023
600 (LV)
± 4.0%
41%
46%
5%
7%
Political Company (R)
January 30 – February 1, 2023
534 (LV)
± 4.0%
45%
40%
–
15%
Political Company (R)
Political Company (R)
Poll source
Political Company (R)
Date(s)administered
January 30 – February 1, 2023
Samplesize
534 (LV)
Marginof error
± 4.0%
JonTester (D)
46%
RyanZinke (R)
40%
Undecided
14%
Poll source
Date(s)administered
Samplesize
Marginof error
JonTester (D)
RyanZinke (R)
Undecided
Political Company (R)
January 30 – February 1, 2023
534 (LV)
± 4.0%
46%
40%
14%
2024 United States Senate election in Montana[129] · General election › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
607,262
Candidate
100.00%
Votes
N/A
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
mw- ±%
Republican
Tim Sheehy
319,682
52.64%
+5.86%
Democratic
Jon Tester (incumbent)
276,305
45.50%
−4.83%
Libertarian
Sid Daoud
7,272
1.20%
−1.68%
Green
Robert Barb
4,003
0.66%
N/A
Total votes
607,262
100.00%
N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
· General election › Results › By county
#
#
County
#
Jon TesterDemocratic
%
Jon TesterDemocratic
#
Tim SheehyRepublican
%
Tim SheehyRepublican
#
Various candidatesOther parties
%
Various candidatesOther parties
#
Margin
%
Beaverhead
Beaverhead
County
Beaverhead
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,024
Jon TesterDemocratic
34.65%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,707
Tim SheehyRepublican
63.47%
Various candidatesOther parties
110
Various candidatesOther parties
1.88%
Margin
1,683
Margin
28.81%
Total votes
5,841
Big Horn
Big Horn
County
Big Horn
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,805
Jon TesterDemocratic
62.99%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,580
Tim SheehyRepublican
35.48%
Various candidatesOther parties
68
Various candidatesOther parties
1.53%
Margin
–1,225
Margin
–27.51%
Total votes
4,453
Blaine
Blaine
County
Blaine
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,814
Jon TesterDemocratic
59.34%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,192
Tim SheehyRepublican
38.99%
Various candidatesOther parties
51
Various candidatesOther parties
1.67%
Margin
–622
Margin
–20.35%
Total votes
3,057
Broadwater
Broadwater
County
Broadwater
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,219
Jon TesterDemocratic
25.18%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,503
Tim SheehyRepublican
72.35%
Various candidatesOther parties
120
Various candidatesOther parties
2.48%
Margin
2,284
Margin
47.17%
Total votes
4,842
Carbon
Carbon
County
Carbon
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,794
Jon TesterDemocratic
37.82%
Tim SheehyRepublican
4,459
Tim SheehyRepublican
60.35%
Various candidatesOther parties
135
Various candidatesOther parties
1.83%
Margin
1,665
Margin
22.54%
Total votes
7,388
Carter
Carter
County
Carter
Jon TesterDemocratic
109
Jon TesterDemocratic
12.76%
Tim SheehyRepublican
732
Tim SheehyRepublican
85.71%
Various candidatesOther parties
13
Various candidatesOther parties
1.52%
Margin
623
Margin
72.95%
Total votes
854
Cascade
Cascade
County
Cascade
Jon TesterDemocratic
17,323
Jon TesterDemocratic
45.73%
Tim SheehyRepublican
19,808
Tim SheehyRepublican
52.30%
Various candidatesOther parties
746
Various candidatesOther parties
1.97%
Margin
2,485
Margin
6.56%
Total votes
37,877
Chouteau
Chouteau
County
Chouteau
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,274
Jon TesterDemocratic
43.03%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,643
Tim SheehyRepublican
55.49%
Various candidatesOther parties
44
Various candidatesOther parties
1.49%
Margin
369
Margin
12.46%
Total votes
2,961
Custer
Custer
County
Custer
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,855
Jon TesterDemocratic
31.87%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,818
Tim SheehyRepublican
65.60%
Various candidatesOther parties
147
Various candidatesOther parties
2.53%
Margin
1,963
Margin
33.73%
Total votes
5,820
Daniels
Daniels
County
Daniels
Jon TesterDemocratic
220
Jon TesterDemocratic
23.06%
Tim SheehyRepublican
719
Tim SheehyRepublican
75.37%
Various candidatesOther parties
15
Various candidatesOther parties
1.57%
Margin
499
Margin
52.31%
Total votes
954
Dawson
Dawson
County
Dawson
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,259
Jon TesterDemocratic
27.06%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,269
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.26%
Various candidatesOther parties
125
Various candidatesOther parties
2.69%
Margin
2,010
Margin
43.20%
Total votes
4,653
Deer Lodge
Deer Lodge
County
Deer Lodge
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,991
Jon TesterDemocratic
60.92%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,820
Tim SheehyRepublican
37.07%
Various candidatesOther parties
99
Various candidatesOther parties
2.02%
Margin
–1,171
Margin
–23.85%
Total votes
4,910
Fallon
Fallon
County
Fallon
Jon TesterDemocratic
256
Jon TesterDemocratic
17.12%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,200
Tim SheehyRepublican
80.27%
Various candidatesOther parties
39
Various candidatesOther parties
2.61%
Margin
944
Margin
63.14%
Total votes
1,495
Fergus
Fergus
County
Fergus
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,910
Jon TesterDemocratic
28.24%
Tim SheehyRepublican
4,749
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.22%
Various candidatesOther parties
104
Various candidatesOther parties
1.54%
Margin
2,839
Margin
41.98%
Total votes
6,763
Flathead
Flathead
County
Flathead
Jon TesterDemocratic
23,647
Jon TesterDemocratic
37.21%
Tim SheehyRepublican
38,582
Tim SheehyRepublican
60.72%
Various candidatesOther parties
1,313
Various candidatesOther parties
2.07%
Margin
14,936
Margin
23.51%
Total votes
63,542
Gallatin
Gallatin
County
Gallatin
Jon TesterDemocratic
39,094
Jon TesterDemocratic
55.41%
Tim SheehyRepublican
30,537
Tim SheehyRepublican
43.28%
Various candidatesOther parties
924
Various candidatesOther parties
1.31%
Margin
–8,557
Margin
–12.13%
Total votes
70,555
Garfield
Garfield
County
Garfield
Jon TesterDemocratic
68
Jon TesterDemocratic
8.54%
Tim SheehyRepublican
720
Tim SheehyRepublican
90.45%
Various candidatesOther parties
8
Various candidatesOther parties
1.01%
Margin
652
Margin
81.91%
Total votes
796
Glacier
Glacier
County
Glacier
Jon TesterDemocratic
3,638
Jon TesterDemocratic
70.86%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,426
Tim SheehyRepublican
27.78%
Various candidatesOther parties
70
Various candidatesOther parties
1.36%
Margin
–2,212
Margin
–43.09%
Total votes
5,134
Golden Valley
Golden Valley
County
Golden Valley
Jon TesterDemocratic
91
Jon TesterDemocratic
17.50%
Tim SheehyRepublican
422
Tim SheehyRepublican
81.15%
Various candidatesOther parties
7
Various candidatesOther parties
1.35%
Margin
331
Margin
63.65%
Total votes
520
Granite
Granite
County
Granite
Jon TesterDemocratic
778
Jon TesterDemocratic
35.61%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,377
Tim SheehyRepublican
63.02%
Various candidatesOther parties
30
Various candidatesOther parties
1.37%
Margin
599
Margin
27.41%
Total votes
2,185
Hill
Hill
County
Hill
Jon TesterDemocratic
3,438
Jon TesterDemocratic
50.32%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,217
Tim SheehyRepublican
47.09%
Various candidatesOther parties
177
Various candidatesOther parties
2.59%
Margin
–221
Margin
–3.23%
Total votes
6,832
Jefferson
Jefferson
County
Jefferson
Jon TesterDemocratic
3,099
Jon TesterDemocratic
37.10%
Tim SheehyRepublican
5,108
Tim SheehyRepublican
61.15%
Various candidatesOther parties
146
Various candidatesOther parties
1.75%
Margin
2,009
Margin
24.05%
Total votes
8,353
Judith Basin
Judith Basin
County
Judith Basin
Jon TesterDemocratic
352
Jon TesterDemocratic
25.88%
Tim SheehyRepublican
991
Tim SheehyRepublican
72.87%
Various candidatesOther parties
17
Various candidatesOther parties
1.25%
Margin
639
Margin
46.99%
Total votes
1,360
Lake
Lake
County
Lake
Jon TesterDemocratic
7,798
Jon TesterDemocratic
45.89%
Tim SheehyRepublican
8,881
Tim SheehyRepublican
52.26%
Various candidatesOther parties
314
Various candidatesOther parties
1.85%
Margin
1,083
Margin
6.37%
Total votes
16,993
Lewis and Clark
Lewis and Clark
County
Lewis and Clark
Jon TesterDemocratic
22,175
Jon TesterDemocratic
52.31%
Tim SheehyRepublican
19,367
Tim SheehyRepublican
45.69%
Various candidatesOther parties
847
Various candidatesOther parties
2.00%
Margin
–2,808
Margin
–6.62%
Total votes
42,389
Liberty
Liberty
County
Liberty
Jon TesterDemocratic
307
Jon TesterDemocratic
30.64%
Tim SheehyRepublican
683
Tim SheehyRepublican
68.16%
Various candidatesOther parties
12
Various candidatesOther parties
1.20%
Margin
376
Margin
37.52%
Total votes
1,002
Lincoln
Lincoln
County
Lincoln
Jon TesterDemocratic
3,287
Jon TesterDemocratic
27.81%
Tim SheehyRepublican
8,291
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.15%
Various candidatesOther parties
241
Various candidatesOther parties
2.04%
Margin
5,004
Margin
42.34%
Total votes
11,819
Madison
Madison
County
Madison
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,025
Jon TesterDemocratic
31.09%
Tim SheehyRepublican
4,388
Tim SheehyRepublican
67.36%
Various candidatesOther parties
101
Various candidatesOther parties
1.55%
Margin
2,363
Margin
36.28%
Total votes
6,514
McCone
McCone
County
McCone
Jon TesterDemocratic
173
Jon TesterDemocratic
15.94%
Tim SheehyRepublican
890
Tim SheehyRepublican
82.03%
Various candidatesOther parties
22
Various candidatesOther parties
2.03%
Margin
717
Margin
66.08%
Total votes
1,085
Meagher
Meagher
County
Meagher
Jon TesterDemocratic
309
Jon TesterDemocratic
26.19%
Tim SheehyRepublican
845
Tim SheehyRepublican
71.61%
Various candidatesOther parties
26
Various candidatesOther parties
2.20%
Margin
536
Margin
45.42%
Total votes
1,180
Mineral
Mineral
County
Mineral
Jon TesterDemocratic
950
Jon TesterDemocratic
33.35%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,831
Tim SheehyRepublican
64.27%
Various candidatesOther parties
68
Various candidatesOther parties
2.39%
Margin
881
Margin
30.92%
Total votes
2,849
Missoula
Missoula
County
Missoula
Jon TesterDemocratic
48,429
Jon TesterDemocratic
66.00%
Tim SheehyRepublican
23,743
Tim SheehyRepublican
32.36%
Various candidatesOther parties
1,200
Various candidatesOther parties
1.64%
Margin
–24,686
Margin
–33.64%
Total votes
73,372
Musselshell
Musselshell
County
Musselshell
Jon TesterDemocratic
536
Jon TesterDemocratic
17.84%
Tim SheehyRepublican
2,408
Tim SheehyRepublican
80.13%
Various candidatesOther parties
61
Various candidatesOther parties
2.03%
Margin
1,872
Margin
62.30%
Total votes
3,005
Park
Park
County
Park
Jon TesterDemocratic
6,009
Jon TesterDemocratic
50.85%
Tim SheehyRepublican
5,614
Tim SheehyRepublican
47.51%
Various candidatesOther parties
193
Various candidatesOther parties
1.63%
Margin
–395
Margin
–3.34%
Total votes
11,816
Petroleum
Petroleum
County
Petroleum
Jon TesterDemocratic
50
Jon TesterDemocratic
15.24%
Tim SheehyRepublican
274
Tim SheehyRepublican
83.54%
Various candidatesOther parties
4
Various candidatesOther parties
1.22%
Margin
224
Margin
68.29%
Total votes
328
Phillips
Phillips
County
Phillips
Jon TesterDemocratic
490
Jon TesterDemocratic
22.27%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,678
Tim SheehyRepublican
76.27%
Various candidatesOther parties
32
Various candidatesOther parties
1.45%
Margin
1,188
Margin
54.00%
Total votes
2,200
Pondera
Pondera
County
Pondera
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,017
Jon TesterDemocratic
35.48%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,804
Tim SheehyRepublican
62.94%
Various candidatesOther parties
45
Various candidatesOther parties
1.57%
Margin
787
Margin
27.46%
Total votes
2,866
Powder River
Powder River
County
Powder River
Jon TesterDemocratic
205
Jon TesterDemocratic
18.47%
Tim SheehyRepublican
886
Tim SheehyRepublican
79.82%
Various candidatesOther parties
19
Various candidatesOther parties
1.71%
Margin
681
Margin
61.35%
Total votes
1,110
Powell
Powell
County
Powell
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,065
Jon TesterDemocratic
32.26%
Tim SheehyRepublican
2,160
Tim SheehyRepublican
65.43%
Various candidatesOther parties
76
Various candidatesOther parties
2.30%
Margin
1,095
Margin
33.17%
Total votes
3,301
Prairie
Prairie
County
Prairie
Jon TesterDemocratic
180
Jon TesterDemocratic
25.97%
Tim SheehyRepublican
489
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.56%
Various candidatesOther parties
24
Various candidatesOther parties
3.46%
Margin
309
Margin
44.59%
Total votes
693
Ravalli
Ravalli
County
Ravalli
Jon TesterDemocratic
10,449
Jon TesterDemocratic
34.78%
Tim SheehyRepublican
19,116
Tim SheehyRepublican
63.62%
Various candidatesOther parties
482
Various candidatesOther parties
1.60%
Margin
8,667
Margin
28.84%
Total votes
30,047
Richland
Richland
County
Richland
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,238
Jon TesterDemocratic
23.36%
Tim SheehyRepublican
3,914
Tim SheehyRepublican
73.85%
Various candidatesOther parties
148
Various candidatesOther parties
2.79%
Margin
2,676
Margin
50.49%
Total votes
5,300
Roosevelt
Roosevelt
County
Roosevelt
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,249
Jon TesterDemocratic
56.82%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,636
Tim SheehyRepublican
41.33%
Various candidatesOther parties
73
Various candidatesOther parties
1.84%
Margin
–613
Margin
–15.49%
Total votes
3,958
Rosebud
Rosebud
County
Rosebud
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,435
Jon TesterDemocratic
38.53%
Tim SheehyRepublican
2,208
Tim SheehyRepublican
59.29%
Various candidatesOther parties
81
Various candidatesOther parties
2.18%
Margin
773
Margin
20.76%
Total votes
3,724
Sanders
Sanders
County
Sanders
Jon TesterDemocratic
2,241
Jon TesterDemocratic
27.65%
Tim SheehyRepublican
5,663
Tim SheehyRepublican
69.86%
Various candidatesOther parties
202
Various candidatesOther parties
2.49%
Margin
3,422
Margin
42.22%
Total votes
8,106
Sheridan
Sheridan
County
Sheridan
Jon TesterDemocratic
685
Jon TesterDemocratic
36.11%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,159
Tim SheehyRepublican
61.10%
Various candidatesOther parties
53
Various candidatesOther parties
2.79%
Margin
474
Margin
24.99%
Total votes
1,897
Silver Bow
Silver Bow
County
Silver Bow
Jon TesterDemocratic
11,854
Jon TesterDemocratic
64.36%
Tim SheehyRepublican
6,232
Tim SheehyRepublican
33.84%
Various candidatesOther parties
332
Various candidatesOther parties
1.80%
Margin
–5,622
Margin
–30.52%
Total votes
18,418
Stillwater
Stillwater
County
Stillwater
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,352
Jon TesterDemocratic
22.79%
Tim SheehyRepublican
4,473
Tim SheehyRepublican
75.40%
Various candidatesOther parties
107
Various candidatesOther parties
1.80%
Margin
3,121
Margin
52.61%
Total votes
5,932
Sweet Grass
Sweet Grass
County
Sweet Grass
Jon TesterDemocratic
665
Jon TesterDemocratic
27.69%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,685
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.15%
Various candidatesOther parties
52
Various candidatesOther parties
2.16%
Margin
1,020
Margin
42.46%
Total votes
2,402
Teton
Teton
County
Teton
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,216
Jon TesterDemocratic
33.72%
Tim SheehyRepublican
2,323
Tim SheehyRepublican
64.42%
Various candidatesOther parties
67
Various candidatesOther parties
1.86%
Margin
1,107
Margin
30.70%
Total votes
3,606
Toole
Toole
County
Toole
Jon TesterDemocratic
558
Jon TesterDemocratic
27.30%
Tim SheehyRepublican
1,436
Tim SheehyRepublican
70.25%
Various candidatesOther parties
50
Various candidatesOther parties
2.45%
Margin
878
Margin
42.95%
Total votes
2,044
Treasure
Treasure
County
Treasure
Jon TesterDemocratic
101
Jon TesterDemocratic
22.60%
Tim SheehyRepublican
336
Tim SheehyRepublican
75.17%
Various candidatesOther parties
10
Various candidatesOther parties
2.24%
Margin
235
Margin
52.57%
Total votes
447
Valley
Valley
County
Valley
Jon TesterDemocratic
1,307
Jon TesterDemocratic
31.93%
Tim SheehyRepublican
2,672
Tim SheehyRepublican
65.28%
Various candidatesOther parties
114
Various candidatesOther parties
2.79%
Margin
1,365
Margin
33.35%
Total votes
4,093
Wheatland
Wheatland
County
Wheatland
Jon TesterDemocratic
278
Jon TesterDemocratic
25.60%
Tim SheehyRepublican
792
Tim SheehyRepublican
72.93%
Various candidatesOther parties
16
Various candidatesOther parties
1.47%
Margin
514
Margin
47.33%
Total votes
1,086
Wibaux
Wibaux
County
Wibaux
Jon TesterDemocratic
121
Jon TesterDemocratic
22.00%
Tim SheehyRepublican
414
Tim SheehyRepublican
75.27%
Various candidatesOther parties
15
Various candidatesOther parties
2.73%
Margin
293
Margin
53.27%
Total votes
550
Yellowstone
Yellowstone
County
Yellowstone
Jon TesterDemocratic
33,493
Jon TesterDemocratic
40.85%
Tim SheehyRepublican
46,812
Tim SheehyRepublican
57.10%
Various candidatesOther parties
1,680
Various candidatesOther parties
2.05%
Margin
13,319
Margin
16.25%
Total votes
81,985
Totals
Totals
County
Totals
Jon TesterDemocratic
276,305
Jon TesterDemocratic
45.50%
Tim SheehyRepublican
319,682
Tim SheehyRepublican
52.64%
Various candidatesOther parties
11,275
Various candidatesOther parties
1.86%
Margin
43,377
Margin
7.14%
Total votes
607,262
County
Jon TesterDemocratic
Tim SheehyRepublican
Various candidatesOther parties
Margin
Total votes
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Beaverhead
2,024
34.65%
3,707
63.47%
110
1.88%
1,683
28.81%
5,841
Big Horn
2,805
62.99%
1,580
35.48%
68
1.53%
–1,225
–27.51%
4,453
Blaine
1,814
59.34%
1,192
38.99%
51
1.67%
–622
–20.35%
3,057
Broadwater
1,219
25.18%
3,503
72.35%
120
2.48%
2,284
47.17%
4,842
Carbon
2,794
37.82%
4,459
60.35%
135
1.83%
1,665
22.54%
7,388
Carter
109
12.76%
732
85.71%
13
1.52%
623
72.95%
854
Cascade
17,323
45.73%
19,808
52.30%
746
1.97%
2,485
6.56%
37,877
Chouteau
1,274
43.03%
1,643
55.49%
44
1.49%
369
12.46%
2,961
Custer
1,855
31.87%
3,818
65.60%
147
2.53%
1,963
33.73%
5,820
Daniels
220
23.06%
719
75.37%
15
1.57%
499
52.31%
954
Dawson
1,259
27.06%
3,269
70.26%
125
2.69%
2,010
43.20%
4,653
Deer Lodge
2,991
60.92%
1,820
37.07%
99
2.02%
–1,171
–23.85%
4,910
Fallon
256
17.12%
1,200
80.27%
39
2.61%
944
63.14%
1,495
Fergus
1,910
28.24%
4,749
70.22%
104
1.54%
2,839
41.98%
6,763
Flathead
23,647
37.21%
38,582
60.72%
1,313
2.07%
14,936
23.51%
63,542
Gallatin
39,094
55.41%
30,537
43.28%
924
1.31%
–8,557
–12.13%
70,555
Garfield
68
8.54%
720
90.45%
8
1.01%
652
81.91%
796
Glacier
3,638
70.86%
1,426
27.78%
70
1.36%
–2,212
–43.09%
5,134
Golden Valley
91
17.50%
422
81.15%
7
1.35%
331
63.65%
520
Granite
778
35.61%
1,377
63.02%
30
1.37%
599
27.41%
2,185
Hill
3,438
50.32%
3,217
47.09%
177
2.59%
–221
–3.23%
6,832
Jefferson
3,099
37.10%
5,108
61.15%
146
1.75%
2,009
24.05%
8,353
Judith Basin
352
25.88%
991
72.87%
17
1.25%
639
46.99%
1,360
Lake
7,798
45.89%
8,881
52.26%
314
1.85%
1,083
6.37%
16,993
Lewis and Clark
22,175
52.31%
19,367
45.69%
847
2.00%
–2,808
–6.62%
42,389
Liberty
307
30.64%
683
68.16%
12
1.20%
376
37.52%
1,002
Lincoln
3,287
27.81%
8,291
70.15%
241
2.04%
5,004
42.34%
11,819
Madison
2,025
31.09%
4,388
67.36%
101
1.55%
2,363
36.28%
6,514
McCone
173
15.94%
890
82.03%
22
2.03%
717
66.08%
1,085
Meagher
309
26.19%
845
71.61%
26
2.20%
536
45.42%
1,180
Mineral
950
33.35%
1,831
64.27%
68
2.39%
881
30.92%
2,849
Missoula
48,429
66.00%
23,743
32.36%
1,200
1.64%
–24,686
–33.64%
73,372
Musselshell
536
17.84%
2,408
80.13%
61
2.03%
1,872
62.30%
3,005
Park
6,009
50.85%
5,614
47.51%
193
1.63%
–395
–3.34%
11,816
Petroleum
50
15.24%
274
83.54%
4
1.22%
224
68.29%
328
Phillips
490
22.27%
1,678
76.27%
32
1.45%
1,188
54.00%
2,200
Pondera
1,017
35.48%
1,804
62.94%
45
1.57%
787
27.46%
2,866
Powder River
205
18.47%
886
79.82%
19
1.71%
681
61.35%
1,110
Powell
1,065
32.26%
2,160
65.43%
76
2.30%
1,095
33.17%
3,301
Prairie
180
25.97%
489
70.56%
24
3.46%
309
44.59%
693
Ravalli
10,449
34.78%
19,116
63.62%
482
1.60%
8,667
28.84%
30,047
Richland
1,238
23.36%
3,914
73.85%
148
2.79%
2,676
50.49%
5,300
Roosevelt
2,249
56.82%
1,636
41.33%
73
1.84%
–613
–15.49%
3,958
Rosebud
1,435
38.53%
2,208
59.29%
81
2.18%
773
20.76%
3,724
Sanders
2,241
27.65%
5,663
69.86%
202
2.49%
3,422
42.22%
8,106
Sheridan
685
36.11%
1,159
61.10%
53
2.79%
474
24.99%
1,897
Silver Bow
11,854
64.36%
6,232
33.84%
332
1.80%
–5,622
–30.52%
18,418
Stillwater
1,352
22.79%
4,473
75.40%
107
1.80%
3,121
52.61%
5,932
· General election › Results › By congressional district
1st
1st
District
1st
Tester
49.51%
Sheehy
48.77%
Representative
Ryan Zinke
2nd
2nd
District
2nd
Tester
40.90%
Sheehy
57.08%
Representative
Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)
District
Troy Downing (119th Congress)
District
Tester
Sheehy
Representative
1st
49.51%
48.77%
Ryan Zinke
2nd
40.90%
57.08%
Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

References

  1. $30,000 of this total was self-funded by Johnson
  2. $2,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  3. Key:A – all adultsRV – registered votersLV – likely votersV – unclear
  4. Jeremy Mygland with 1%
  5. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. $2,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  7. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  9. Daoud (L) with 1%; Barb (G) with 1%
  10. Daoud (L) with 4%; Barb (G) with 2%
  11. Sid Daoud (L) with 1%
  12. Sid Daoud (L) with 4%; Michael Downey with 1%
  13. Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 1%
  14. Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 2%
  15. Sid Daoud (L) with 4%
  16. Poll sponsored by The Hill.
  17. Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  18. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  19. Poll commissioned by the Napolitan Institute
  20. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  21. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA, a conservative group
  22. Poll commissioned by KULR-TV
  23. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  25. Poll sponsored by More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC "with ties to" U.S. Senator Steve Daines, who is supporting Sh
  26. Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
  27. Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen
    https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
  28. New York Magazine
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/will-a-generic-republican-beat-tester-and-flip-the-senate.html
  29. Morning Consult
    https://morningconsult.com/2023/04/19/joe-manchin-jon-tester-approval-rating/
  30. Sabato's Crystal Ball
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  31. RealClearPolitics
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  32. Bozeman Daily Chronicle
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  33. "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race"
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  34. AP News
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  35. The New York Times
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  36. Associated Press
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  37. Daily Kos
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  38. NBC News
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  40. Politico
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  41. WKU Public Radio
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  42. The New York Times
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  43. Jewish Insider
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  44. Council for a Livable World
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  45. Politico
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  46. endcitizensunited.org
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  47. feministmajoritypac.org
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  48. Jewish Democratic Council of America
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  49. jacpac.org
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  50. League of Conservation Voters
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  51. NOW PAC
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  52. NRDC Action Fund
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  53. Peace Action
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  54. www.plannedparenthoodaction.org
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  55. Population Connection Action Fund
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  56. Reproductive Freedom for All
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  57. Swing Left
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  58. Association of Flight Attendants-CWA
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  59. Education Votes
    https://educationvotes.nea.org/our-recommended-candidates/
  60. fec.gov
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    https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY&eid=450002570
  62. KULR-8 Local News
    https://www.kulr8.com/regional/tim-sheehy-announces-run-for-u-s-senate-in-montana/article_754dcc37-e212-53e6-8acf-beba742e7fb8.html
  63. KPAX-TV
    https://www.kpax.com/news/montana-politics/brad-johnson-announces-hes-running-for-u-s-senate-in-montana
  64. KTVH-DT
    https://www.ktvh.com/news/millions-already-spent-in-highly-watched-montana-u-s-senate-race
  65. CNN
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/08/politics/matt-rosendale-not-running-reelection/index.html
  66. The Hill
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4073583-montana-governor-backs-tim-sheehy-in-senate-race/
  67. Nonstop Local—ABC FOX
    https://www.montanarightnow.com/news/congressman-ryan-zinke-officially-endorses-tim-sheehy-for-us-senate/article_e6938d18-1b3e-11ee-9514-fbc2223e1ef3.html
  68. KTMF
    https://www.montanarightnow.com/news/montana-democrat-monica-tranel-announces-run-for-u-s-congress/article_e9ec2978-1d1b-11ee-ad10-b7f566abf9ae.html
  69. www.thehill.com
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4459023-trump-backs-sheehy-montana-senate-race/
  70. Washington Examiner
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/barrasso-endorses-sheehy-montana
  71. The Hill
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4070357-gop-gets-its-wish-with-sheehy-in-montana-a-blank-canvas-with-a-big-checkbook/
  72. Fox News
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tim-sheehy-receives-another-major-endorsement-montana-senate-bid-unseat-tester
  73. National Review
    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/tom-cotton-endorses-tim-sheehy-in-montana-senate-race/
  74. The National Review
    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/montanas-steve-daines-endorses-former-navy-seal-tim-sheehy-in-senate-gop-primary/
  75. www.foxnews.com
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tim-sheehy-receives-another-major-endorsement-montana-senate-bid-unseat-tester.amp
  76. Politico
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/28/senate-republicans-montana-primary-00104125
  77. timformt.com
    https://timformt.com/news/punchbowl-news-sen-eric-schmitt-r-mo-is-endorsing-tim-sheehy-for-senate-in-montana/
  78. Politico
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/11/republicans-senate-primary-strategy-00105531
  79. The Gazette
    https://gazette.com/news/wex/sen-tommy-tuberville-endorses-tim-sheehy-in-montana-senate-race/article_75311770-51a5-56dd-9777-3b97f29979f7.html
  80. www.kfyrtv.com
    https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/02/04/gov-burgum-endorses-tim-sheehy-montanas-senate-race/
  81. Fox News
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/popular-gop-governor-announces-endorsement-key-battleground-senate-race-accomplishes-missions
  82. Twitter
    https://twitter.com/Jim_Banks/status/1749636569823125662
  83. Fox News
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-navy-seal-democratic-senator-builds-momentum-big-name-support
  84. NonStop Local
    https://www.montanarightnow.com/montana/marjorie-taylor-green-endorses-tim-sheehy-for-senate/video_f78b4fd8-bd6a-11ee-917a-23fb3238b12f.html
  85. The Hill
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rosendale-seeking-reelection-to-montana-house-seat-after-dropping-out-of-senate-race/ar-BB1j43EN
  86. X
    https://twitter.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1760667583697629384
  87. AFP Action
    https://afpaction.com/americans-for-prosperity-action-endorses-tim-sheehy-for-u-s-senate/
  88. GOA Victory Fund
    https://www.gunowners.org/grades/
  89. Washington Examiner
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nrsc-backed-gop-senate-candidate-tim-sheehy-makes-first-ad-buy-in-montana/ar-AA1eurpr/
  90. NRA-PVF
    https://web.archive.org/web/20240513163530/https://www.nrapvf.org/grades/montana
  91. www.senateconservatives.com
    https://www.senateconservatives.com/#candidates
  92. SBA Pro-Life America
    https://sbaprolife.org/newsroom/press-releases/sba-pro-life-americas-candidate-fund-endorses-tim-sheehy-u-s-senate
  93. Washington Examiner
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/2847304/rosendale-mounts-lonely-quest-senate-montana/
  94. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/us/politics/montana-senate-republican-primary.html
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    https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/08-17-2023/rosendale-grabs-local-support/
  96. "GOA Endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate Race | GOA"
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  97. Politico
    https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018b-f24f-dfe4-af8b-f2ef4cdf0000
  98. FiveThirtyEight
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  99. J.L. Partners
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5db0ca668552dd5ab1168a91/t/64f08041112ed461e30ba1ea/1693483073694/All+Voters+Toplines+V3.pdf
  100. Public Policy Polling
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  101. Scribd
    https://www.scribd.com/document/630212259/MT-US-SEN
  102. Flathead Beacon
    https://flatheadbeacon.com/2023/11/14/kalispell-libertarian-sid-daoud-announces-third-party-senate-run/
  103. Montana Free Press
    https://montanafreepress.org/2024/08/21/green-party-candidate-files-to-join-u-s-senate-race/
  104. Montana Free Press
    https://montanafreepress.org/2024/08/21/green-party-candidate-files-to-join-u-s-senate-race/
  105. "Montana Democratic Party sues to keep Green Party off U.S. Senate ballot • Daily Montanan"
    https://dailymontanan.com/2024/08/26/montana-democratic-party-sues-to-keep-green-party-off-u-s-senate-ballot/
  106. "Montana Supreme Court denies Democratic Party's request for control of Green Party case"
    https://www.gp.org/montana_supreme_court_denies_democratic_party
  107. Cook Political Report
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
  108. "Senate Ratings"
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  109. "2024 Senate"
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  111. Elections Daily
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  112. CNalysis
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  113. RealClearPolitics
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  114. Split Ticket
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  115. NonStop Local
    https://www.montanarightnow.com/elections/montana-political-show/tulsi-gabbard-endorses-tim-sheehy/article_25190902-2ad7-11ef-b9c0-33f9a47f5f26.html
  116. Politico
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  117. "Ron DeSantis doubles down on Montana Senate endorsement"
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  118. Montana Kaimin
    https://www.montanakaimin.com/news/tim-sheehy-and-charlie-kirk-rally-at-um/article_ba31b246-80c7-11ef-9ddc-07abb7c2aea5.html
  119. "U.S. Senate candidate from Montana Tim Sheehy endorsed by the National Rifle Association"
    https://bigskytimes.com/stories/660501632-u-s-senate-candidate-from-montana-tim-sheehy-endorsed-by-the-national-rifle-association
  120. The Hill
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4814272-republicans-for-tester-group-launched-montana-senate/
  121. Fight Like Hell PAC
    https://fightlikehellpac.org/
  122. KTVH
    https://www.ktvh.com/news/tester-campaign-unveils-list-of-republicans-for-tester-in-senate-race
  123. Maryland Matters
    https://marylandmatters.org/briefs/dunns-new-pac-backs-10-democratic-senate-candidates-including-alsobrooks/
  124. NCPSSM
    https://www.ncpssm.org/documents/news-releases/national-seniors-group-proudly-endorses-tester-tranel/
  125. Montana Free Press
    https://montanafreepress.org/2024/10/29/tester-sheehy-do-battle-in-your-mailbox/
  126. RealClearPolling
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester
  127. FiveThirtyEight
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/general
  128. 270toWin
    https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-polls/montana
  129. The Hill
    https://elections2024.thehill.com/montana/montana-senate-tester-sheehy
  130. AtlasIntel
    https://cdn.atlasintel.org/616d82d3-e782-4d6e-b690-9eed1523fe75.pdf#page=79
  131. Emerson College Polling
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-montana-poll-sheehy-50-tester-46/
  132. Montana State University Billings
    https://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2024-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf
  133. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/10/us/politics/senate-polls-montana-florida-texas.html
  134. Montana GOP
    https://www.montana-gop.com/pos_mt_poll.pdf
  135. American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers
    https://www.afpm.org/sites/default/files/issue_resources/Sept24_RemingtonStatePollsEVMandate.pdf
  136. Napolitan Institute
    https://napolitaninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GCM24-MT09-Mini-Toplines-Senate.pdf
  137. AARP
    https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/montana-older-voter-survey-2024/
  138. Montana GOP
    https://www.montana-gop.com/MTGOP_Poll.pdf
  139. Rasmussen Reports
    https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/partner_surveys/toplines_2_nusa_august_2024_montana
  140. Napolitan Institute
    https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/08/15/montana-senate-tester-49-sheehy-44/
  141. KULR8
    https://www.kulr8.com/elections/new-poll-shows-sheehy-holds-slim-lead-over-tester-in-u-s-senate-race/article_cb29829e-99ef-500c-83f7-9ae779efe5db.html
  142. Emerson College Polling
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-trump-55-harris-40/
  143. Progressive Policy Institute
    https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/PPI-National-Healthcare-Poll-July-2024-Toplines-vFIN.pdf
  144. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers
    https://www.afpm.org/sites/default/files/issue_resources/AFPM%208%20States%20Survey%20Memo-FINAL.pdf
  145. X
    https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1806842559198626004
  146. Public Opinion Strategies
    https://csimgs.com/montana/June2024MontanaStatewidePollToplineResults.pdf
  147. Politico
    https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-5081-d7ad-a9b8-55a38d5a0000
  148. Politico
    https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/06/26/congress/sheehys-montana-ad-support-00164920
  149. J.L. Partners
    https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/helenair.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/f/4c/f4c944e6-f5e4-11ee-9dcf-3fb8620a0b9a/661450d6d2ba1.pdf.pdf
  150. Emerson College Polling
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-u-s-senate-tester-44-sheehy-42/
  151. SurveyUSA
    https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8eb417f-50db-4865-bc42-0575095dbb22
  152. Emerson College Polling
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/montana-2024-poll-democratic-senator-jon-tester-holds-narrow-lead-over-republican-challenger-tim-sheehy/
  153. Squarespace
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5db0ca668552dd5ab1168a91/t/64f08041112ed461e30ba1ea/1693483073694/All+Voters+Toplines+V3.pdf
  154. Google Drive
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/14gfpsaylN4rY14H_PdJIekBrAcTwEraU/view
  155. Secretary of State of Montana
    https://sosmt.gov/docs/31/post-election/66775/2024-general-election-report-state-canvass
  156. www.ourcampaigns.com
    https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1005665
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