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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

Updated: Wikipedia source

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego won his first term in office, defeating Republican former news anchor Kari Lake. He succeeded independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term. Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024. Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win. Gallego defeated Lake by 2 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races. Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth-largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. Gallego particularly benefitted from ticket splitting among Hispanics, who according to exit polls gave Gallego 60% of their votes, compared to 54% for Harris. Specifically, Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona. This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U . senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population. This was the first time since 2006 that any candidate won a majority of the vote in this seat.

Infobox

Nominee
Ruben Gallego
Party
Democratic
Popular vote
1,676,335
Percentage
50 %

Tables

Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
August 2–4, 2023
Sample size
571 (LV)
Margin of error
Ruben Gallego
48%
Alexander Keller
6%
Other
6%
Undecided
40%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Ruben Gallego
Alexander Keller
Other
Undecided
Emerson College
August 2–4, 2023
571 (LV)
48%
6%
6%
40%
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
January 21–24, 2022
Sample size
673 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kate Gallego
Ruben Gallego
74%
Kathy Hoffman
Regina Romero
Kyrsten Sinema
16%
Greg Stanton
Undecided
10%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
66%
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
17%
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
17%
Noble Predictive Insights
Noble Predictive Insights
Poll source
Noble Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
November 1–8, 2021
Sample size
229 (RV)
Margin of error
± 6 %
Kate Gallego
Ruben Gallego
47%
Kathy Hoffman
Regina Romero
Kyrsten Sinema
24%
Greg Stanton
Undecided
29%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
24%
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
32%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
25%
Ruben Gallego
47%
Kathy Hoffman
28%
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
October 8–10, 2021
Sample size
467 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kate Gallego
9%
Ruben Gallego
23%
Kathy Hoffman
Regina Romero
9%
Kyrsten Sinema
19%
Greg Stanton
13%
Undecided
26%
60%
60%
Poll source
60%
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
25%
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
15%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
62%
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
23%
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
15%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
55%
Kate Gallego
26%
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
19%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
24%
Ruben Gallego
59%
Kathy Hoffman
17%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kate Gallego
Ruben Gallego
Kathy Hoffman
Regina Romero
Kyrsten Sinema
Greg Stanton
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)
January 21–24, 2022
673 (LV)
± 4 %
74%
16%
10%
66%
17%
17%
Noble Predictive Insights
November 1–8, 2021
229 (RV)
± 6 %
47%
24%
29%
44%
24%
32%
25%
47%
28%
Data for Progress (D)
October 8–10, 2021
467 (LV)
± 5 %
9%
23%
9%
19%
13%
26%
60%
25%
15%
62%
23%
15%
55%
26%
19%
24%
59%
17%
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
498,927
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Ruben Gallego
498,927
100 %
Total votes
498,927
100 %
· Republican primary › Fundraising
Candidate
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Candidate
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Raised
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Spent
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Cash on hand
Kari Lake
Kari Lake
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Kari Lake
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$10,352,741
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$8,290,053
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$2,062,687
Mark Lamb
Mark Lamb
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Mark Lamb
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$2,059,130
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$1,795,730
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
$263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Source: Federal Election Commission
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Kari Lake
$10,352,741
$8,290,053
$2,062,687
Mark Lamb
$2,059,130
$1,795,730
$263,400
Source: Federal Election Commission
· Republican primary › Polling
Noble Predictive Insights
Noble Predictive Insights
Poll source
Noble Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
July 22–23, 2024
Sample size
438 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kari Lake
49%
Mark Lamb
38%
Other
7%
Undecided
2%
Noble Predictive Insights
Noble Predictive Insights
Poll source
Noble Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
May 7–14, 2024
Sample size
364 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kari Lake
46%
Mark Lamb
21%
Other
9%
Undecided
25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports (R)
Date(s) administered
February 21–26, 2024
Sample size
469 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kari Lake
55%
Mark Lamb
26%
Other
7%
Undecided
12%
Noble Predictive Insights
Noble Predictive Insights
Poll source
Noble Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
February 6–13, 2024
Sample size
384 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kari Lake
54%
Mark Lamb
21%
Other
9%
Undecided
17%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kari Lake
Mark Lamb
Other
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights
July 22–23, 2024
438 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
38%
7%
2%
Noble Predictive Insights
May 7–14, 2024
364 (RV)
± 5 %
46%
21%
9%
25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)
February 21–26, 2024
469 (LV)
± 3 %
55%
26%
7%
12%
Noble Predictive Insights
February 6–13, 2024
384 (RV)
± 5 %
54%
21%
9%
17%

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 6%
  3. Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. Quintana (G) with 2%
  9. "Other" with 4%
  10. Quintana (G) with 1%
  11. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 8%
  13. "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. "Someone Else" with 2%
  17. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  18. "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. "Other" with 3%
Image
Source:
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