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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

Updated: Wikipedia source

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died from glioblastoma on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U . Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020. Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters. Kelly won re-election on his first full term in office, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U . Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.

Infobox

Nominee
Mark Kelly
Party
Democratic
Popular vote
1,322,027
Percentage
51 %

Tables

Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
589,400
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Mark Kelly (incumbent)
589,400
100 %
Total votes
589,400
100 %
· Republican primary › Polling
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation
Real Clear Politics
Dates administered
July 27 – August 1, 2022
Dates updated
August 2, 2022
Mark Brnovich
14 %
Jim Lamon
22 %
Blake Masters
37 %
Michael McGuire
8 %
Justin Olson
3 %
Undecided
17 %
Margin
Masters +15
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Mark Brnovich
Jim Lamon
Blake Masters
Michael McGuire
Justin Olson
Undecided
Margin
Real Clear Politics
July 27 – August 1, 2022
August 2, 2022
14 %
22 %
37 %
8 %
3 %
17 %
Masters +15
· Republican primary › Polling
The Trafalgar Group (R)
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
July 30 – August 1, 2022
Sample size
1,064 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mark Brnovich
16%
Jim Lamon
24%
Blake Masters
39%
Michael McGuire
7%
Justin Olson
4%
Other
–
Undecided
9%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
July 28–30, 2022
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
14%
Jim Lamon
22%
Blake Masters
40%
Michael McGuire
12%
Justin Olson
3%
Other
–
Undecided
9%
Rasmussen Reports
Rasmussen Reports
Poll source
Rasmussen Reports
Date(s) administered
July 27–28, 2022
Sample size
710 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
16%
Jim Lamon
19%
Blake Masters
31%
Michael McGuire
10%
Justin Olson
3%
Other
6%
Undecided
15%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
July 27, 2022
Sample size
502 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
12%
Jim Lamon
21%
Blake Masters
36%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
3%
Other
–
Undecided
22%
Battleground Connect (R)
Battleground Connect (R)
Poll source
Battleground Connect (R)
Date(s) administered
July 26–27, 2022
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
16%
Jim Lamon
30%
Blake Masters
28%
Michael McGuire
8%
Justin Olson
6%
Other
–
Undecided
12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
July 25–27, 2022
Sample size
1,071 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mark Brnovich
15%
Jim Lamon
27%
Blake Masters
35%
Michael McGuire
8%
Justin Olson
6%
Other
–
Undecided
10%
Battleground Connect (R)
Battleground Connect (R)
Poll source
Battleground Connect (R)
Date(s) administered
July 17–18, 2022
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
16%
Jim Lamon
33%
Blake Masters
28%
Michael McGuire
7%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
14%
Cygnal (R)
Cygnal (R)
Poll source
Cygnal (R)
Date(s) administered
July 12–13, 2022
Sample size
419 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
18%
Jim Lamon
20%
Blake Masters
30%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
25%
Battleground Connect (R)
Battleground Connect (R)
Poll source
Battleground Connect (R)
Date(s) administered
July 7–9, 2022
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
16%
Jim Lamon
29%
Blake Masters
27%
Michael McGuire
4%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Poll source
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Date(s) administered
July 2–7, 2022
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
13%
Jim Lamon
14%
Blake Masters
23%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Poll source
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Date(s) administered
July 5–6, 2022
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
10%
Jim Lamon
14%
Blake Masters
26%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
0%
Other
–
Undecided
45%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
June 30 – July 2, 2022
Sample size
515 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
14%
Jim Lamon
18%
Blake Masters
25%
Michael McGuire
6%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
35%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
June 28, 2022
Sample size
595 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
15%
Jim Lamon
10%
Blake Masters
29%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
41%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
June 7–9, 2022
Sample size
1,077 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mark Brnovich
24%
Jim Lamon
17%
Blake Masters
29%
Michael McGuire
4%
Justin Olson
4%
Other
–
Undecided
22%
Data Orbital (R)
Data Orbital (R)
Poll source
Data Orbital (R)
Date(s) administered
June 1–3, 2022
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
18%
Jim Lamon
20%
Blake Masters
15%
Michael McGuire
–
Justin Olson
–
Other
12%
Undecided
36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Date(s) administered
May 17–18, 2022
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
18%
Jim Lamon
18%
Blake Masters
22%
Michael McGuire
7%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
34%
Cygnal (R)
Cygnal (R)
Poll source
Cygnal (R)
Date(s) administered
April 28–30, 2022
Sample size
– (LV)
Margin of error
–
Mark Brnovich
19%
Jim Lamon
20%
Blake Masters
19%
Michael McGuire
7%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
33%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
April 25–28, 2022
Sample size
1,064 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
24%
Jim Lamon
25%
Blake Masters
19%
Michael McGuire
8%
Justin Olson
3%
Other
–
Undecided
21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)
McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Poll source
McLaughlin & Associates (R)
Date(s) administered
April 21–24, 2022
Sample size
– (LV)
Margin of error
–
Mark Brnovich
22%
Jim Lamon
25%
Blake Masters
16%
Michael McGuire
6%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
31%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
April 4–5, 2022
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
21%
Jim Lamon
16%
Blake Masters
9%
Michael McGuire
6%
Justin Olson
3%
Other
–
Undecided
45%
Data Orbital (R)
Data Orbital (R)
Poll source
Data Orbital (R)
Date(s) administered
April 1–3, 2022
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
20%
Jim Lamon
26%
Blake Masters
10%
Michael McGuire
7%
Justin Olson
4%
Other
–
Undecided
33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Poll source
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Date(s) administered
March 26–27, 2022
Sample size
264 (LV)
Margin of error
± 6 %
Mark Brnovich
11%
Jim Lamon
10%
Blake Masters
6%
Michael McGuire
4%
Justin Olson
–
Other
8%
Undecided
61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Date(s) administered
March 13–14, 2022
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
14%
Jim Lamon
14%
Blake Masters
16%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
1%
Other
–
Undecided
52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Poll source
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
Date(s) administered
March 9–12, 2022
Sample size
433 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
20%
Jim Lamon
15%
Blake Masters
15%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
1%
Other
–
Undecided
45%
Data Orbital (R)
Data Orbital (R)
Poll source
Data Orbital (R)
Date(s) administered
March 2022
Sample size
– (LV)
Margin of error
–
Mark Brnovich
23%
Jim Lamon
17%
Blake Masters
14%
Michael McGuire
4%
Justin Olson
5%
Other
–
Undecided
37%
Data Orbital (R)
Data Orbital (R)
Poll source
Data Orbital (R)
Date(s) administered
February 11–13, 2022
Sample size
300 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Mark Brnovich
22%
Jim Lamon
17%
Blake Masters
15%
Michael McGuire
5%
Justin Olson
5%
Other
–
Undecided
37%
co/efficient (R)
co/efficient (R)
Poll source
co/efficient (R)
Date(s) administered
February 6–8, 2022
Sample size
755 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
17%
Jim Lamon
13%
Blake Masters
12%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
1%
Other
11%
Undecided
44%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
January 11–13, 2022
Sample size
302 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Mark Brnovich
25%
Jim Lamon
7%
Blake Masters
6%
Michael McGuire
11%
Justin Olson
4%
Other
–
Undecided
47%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
November 1–8, 2021
Sample size
252 (RV)
Margin of error
± 6 %
Mark Brnovich
27%
Jim Lamon
5%
Blake Masters
9%
Michael McGuire
12%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
–
Undecided
46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Date(s) administered
October 26–28, 2021
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
26%
Jim Lamon
4%
Blake Masters
14%
Michael McGuire
2%
Justin Olson
2%
Other
<1%
Undecided
52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Poll source
OnMessage Inc. (R)
Date(s) administered
September 9–12, 2021
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
41%
Jim Lamon
5%
Blake Masters
7%
Michael McGuire
4%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
43%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
September 7–12, 2021
Sample size
311 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Mark Brnovich
27%
Jim Lamon
3%
Blake Masters
6%
Michael McGuire
14%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Poll source
Fabrizio Lee (R)
Date(s) administered
August 4–8, 2021
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Brnovich
29%
Jim Lamon
7%
Blake Masters
5%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
–
Other
<1%
Undecided
56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Poll source
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
Date(s) administered
May 3–5, 2021
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mark Brnovich
28%
Jim Lamon
–
Blake Masters
1%
Michael McGuire
1%
Justin Olson
–
Other
–
Undecided
61%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mark Brnovich
Jim Lamon
Blake Masters
Michael McGuire
Justin Olson
Other
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)
July 30 – August 1, 2022
1,064 (LV)
± 2 %
16%
24%
39%
7%
4%
–
9%
Emerson College
July 28–30, 2022
600 (LV)
± 3 %
14%
22%
40%
12%
3%
–
9%
Rasmussen Reports
July 27–28, 2022
710 (LV)
± 4 %
16%
19%
31%
10%
3%
6%
15%
OH Predictive Insights
July 27, 2022
502 (LV)
± 4 %
12%
21%
36%
5%
3%
–
22%
Battleground Connect (R)
July 26–27, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3 %
16%
30%
28%
8%
6%
–
12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
July 25–27, 2022
1,071 (LV)
± 2 %
15%
27%
35%
8%
6%
–
10%
Battleground Connect (R)
July 17–18, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3 %
16%
33%
28%
7%
2%
–
14%
Cygnal (R)
July 12–13, 2022
419 (LV)
± 4 %
18%
20%
30%
5%
2%
–
25%
Battleground Connect (R)
July 7–9, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3 %
16%
29%
27%
4%
–
–
24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
July 2–7, 2022
400 (LV)
± 4 %
13%
14%
23%
5%
2%
–
44%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
July 5–6, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4 %
10%
14%
26%
5%
0%
–
45%
OH Predictive Insights
June 30 – July 2, 2022
515 (LV)
± 4 %
14%
18%
25%
6%
2%
–
35%
Public Policy Polling (D)
June 28, 2022
595 (LV)
± 4 %
15%
10%
29%
5%
–
–
41%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
June 7–9, 2022
1,077 (LV)
± 2 %
24%
17%
29%
4%
4%
–
22%
Data Orbital (R)
June 1–3, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4 %
18%
20%
15%
–
–
12%
36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
May 17–18, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3 %
18%
18%
22%
7%
2%
–
34%
Cygnal (R)
April 28–30, 2022
– (LV)
–
19%
20%
19%
7%
2%
–
33%
The Trafalgar Group (R)
April 25–28, 2022
1,064 (LV)
± 3 %
24%
25%
19%
8%
3%
–
21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)
April 21–24, 2022
– (LV)
–
22%
25%
16%
6%
–
–
31%
OH Predictive Insights
April 4–5, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4 %
21%
16%
9%
6%
3%
–
45%
Data Orbital (R)
April 1–3, 2022
550 (LV)
± 4 %
20%
26%
10%
7%
4%
–
33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
March 26–27, 2022
264 (LV)
± 6 %
11%
10%
6%
4%
–
8%
61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
March 13–14, 2022
800 (LV)
± 3 %
14%
14%
16%
3%
1%
–
52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J . Partners
March 9–12, 2022
433 (LV)
± 4 %
20%
15%
15%
3%
1%
–
45%
Data Orbital (R)
March 2022
– (LV)
–
23%
17%
14%
4%
5%
–
37%
Data Orbital (R)
February 11–13, 2022
300 (LV)
± 5 %
22%
17%
15%
5%
5%
–
37%
co/efficient (R)
February 6–8, 2022
755 (LV)
± 3 %
17%
13%
12%
3%
1%
11%
44%
OH Predictive Insights
January 11–13, 2022
302 (RV)
± 5 %
25%
7%
6%
11%
4%
–
47%
OH Predictive Insights
November 1–8, 2021
252 (RV)
± 6 %
27%
5%
9%
12%
2%
–
46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
October 26–28, 2021
800 (LV)
± 3 %
26%
4%
14%
2%
2%
<1%
52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)
September 9–12, 2021
500 (LV)
± 4 %
41%
5%
7%
4%
–
–
43%
OH Predictive Insights
September 7–12, 2021
311 (RV)
± 5 %
27%
3%
6%
14%
–
–
51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)
August 4–8, 2021
800 (LV)
± 3 %
29%
7%
5%
3%
–
<1%
56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)
May 3–5, 2021
400 (LV)
± 4 %
28%
–
1%
1%
–
–
61%
co/efficient (R)
co/efficient (R)
Poll source
co/efficient (R)
Date(s) administered
February 6–8, 2022
Sample size
755 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kirk Adams
–
Andy Biggs
–
Mark Brnovich
14%
Doug Ducey
13%
Jim Lamon
11%
Blake Masters
11%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
1%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
January 11–13, 2022
Sample size
302 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Kirk Adams
–
Andy Biggs
–
Mark Brnovich
13%
Doug Ducey
35%
Jim Lamon
4%
Blake Masters
4%
Michael McGuire
9%
Justin Olson
2%
WPA Intelligence (R)
WPA Intelligence (R)
Poll source
WPA Intelligence (R)
Date(s) administered
April 5–6, 2021
Sample size
505 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kirk Adams
–
Andy Biggs
46%
Mark Brnovich
–
Doug Ducey
45%
Jim Lamon
–
Blake Masters
–
Michael McGuire
–
Justin Olson
–
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
March 8–12, 2021
Sample size
690 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Kirk Adams
2%
Andy Biggs
27%
Mark Brnovich
–
Doug Ducey
–
Jim Lamon
–
Blake Masters
2%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
–
6%
6%
Poll source
6%
Date(s) administered
26%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Kirk Adams
–
Andy Biggs
2%
Mark Brnovich
10%
Doug Ducey
–
Jim Lamon
–
Blake Masters
56%
Data Orbital (R)
Data Orbital (R)
Poll source
Data Orbital (R)
Date(s) administered
February 17–19, 2021
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Kirk Adams
2%
Andy Biggs
36%
Mark Brnovich
–
Doug Ducey
–
Jim Lamon
1%
Blake Masters
1%
Michael McGuire
3%
Justin Olson
–
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kirk Adams
Andy Biggs
Mark Brnovich
Doug Ducey
Jim Lamon
Blake Masters
Michael McGuire
Justin Olson
co/efficient (R)
February 6–8, 2022
755 (LV)
± 3 %
–
–
14%
13%
11%
11%
3%
1%
OH Predictive Insights
January 11–13, 2022
302 (RV)
± 5 %
–
–
13%
35%
4%
4%
9%
2%
WPA Intelligence (R)
April 5–6, 2021
505 (LV)
± 4 %
–
46%
–
45%
–
–
–
–
OH Predictive Insights
March 8–12, 2021
690 (RV)
± 3 %
2%
27%
–
–
–
2%
3%
–
6%
26%
–
–
–
2%
10%
–
–
56%
Data Orbital (R)
February 17–19, 2021
600 (LV)
± 4 %
2%
36%
–
–
1%
1%
3%
–
Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
813,068
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Blake Masters
327,198
40 %
Republican
Jim Lamon
228,467
28 %
Republican
Mark Brnovich
144,092
17 %
Republican
Michael McGuire
71,100
8 %
Republican
Justin Olson
41,985
5 %
Write-in
226
0 %
Total votes
813,068
100 %

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. Paveza with <1%
  4. Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  5. Response with candidates' job titles
  6. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. "Refused" with 1%
  8. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  9. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  10. "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. "Someone else" with 2%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%
  13. "Someone else" with 1%
  14. "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Someone else" with 5%
  17. "Other" with <1%; "Refused" with <1%
  18. "Someone else" with 2%
  19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. "Another candidate" with 5%
Image
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