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2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

Updated: Wikipedia source

2022 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro. This was the first U . Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process provided for in Ballot Measure 2. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters utilized ranked-choice voting. Murkowski had been a vocal critic of Donald Trump during his presidency and opposed several of his initiatives. Murkowski was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, and was the only one up for re-election in 2022. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, was endorsed by Trump and the Alaska Republican Party. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski. In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot. Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes; however, because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, an instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.

Infobox

Candidate
Lisa Murkowski
Party
Republican
First round
113,495 43 %
Final round
136,330 53 %

Tables

Primary election results · Primary election › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
190,458
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)
85,794
45 %
Republican
Kelly Tshibaka
73,414
38 %
Democratic
Patricia Chesbro
12,989
6 %
Republican
Buzz Kelley
4,055
2 %
Republican
Pat Nolin
2,004
1 %
Democratic
Edgar Blatchford
1,981
1 %
Democratic
Ivan R. Taylor
1,897
1 %
Republican
Sam Merrill
1,529
0 %
Libertarian
Sean Thorne
1,399
0 %
Independent
Shoshana Gungurstein
853
0 %
Independence
Joe Stephens
805
0 %
Republican
John Schiess
734
0 %
Independence
Dustin Darden
649
0 %
Republican
Kendall L. Shorkey
627
0 %
Republican
Karl Speights
613
0 %
Independent
Jeremy Keller
405
0 %
Independent
Sid Hill
274
0 %
Independent
Huhnkie Lee
238
0 %
Independent
Dave Darden
198
0 %
Total votes
190,458
100 %
· General election › Predictions
Solid R
Solid R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Solid R
As of
March 4, 2022
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Solid R
As of
April 1, 2022
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe R
As of
March 1, 2022
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Solid R
As of
September 5, 2022
Safe R
Safe R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 15, 2022
Solid R
Solid R
Source
Fox News
Ranking
Solid R
As of
May 12, 2022
Solid R
Solid R
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Solid R
As of
July 20, 2022
Solid R
Solid R
Source
FiveThirtyEight
Ranking
Solid R
As of
October 24, 2022
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 7, 2022
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Solid R
March 4, 2022
Inside Elections
Solid R
April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
March 1, 2022
Politico
Solid R
September 5, 2022
RCP
Safe R
September 15, 2022
Fox News
Solid R
May 12, 2022
DDHQ
Solid R
July 20, 2022
FiveThirtyEight
Solid R
October 24, 2022
The Economist
Safe R
September 7, 2022
2022 United States Senate election in Alaska debates · General election › Debates and forums
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
No.
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
Lisa Murkowski
Lisa Murkowski
No.
Lisa Murkowski
Date
Kelly Tshibaka
Host
Patricia Chesbro
Link
Buzz Kelley
1
1
No.
1
Date
September 1, 2022
Host
Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
A
2
2
No.
2
Date
October 10, 2022
Host
Anchorage Chamber of Commerce
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
W
No.
Date
Host
Link
Participants
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn
Lisa Murkowski
Kelly Tshibaka
Patricia Chesbro
Buzz Kelley
1
September 1, 2022
Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News
P
P
P
A
2
October 10, 2022
Anchorage Chamber of Commerce
P
P
P
W
· General election › Polling
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 19–22, 2022
Sample size
1,276 (LV)
Margin of error
±3 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
41%
Sample size
39%
Margin of error
16%
RCV count
4%
Lisa Murkowski (R)
—
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
42%
Sample size
41%
Margin of error
17%
RCV count
—
Lisa Murkowski (R)
—
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
56%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
–
RCV count
—
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
September 25–27, 2022
Sample size
1,282 (LV)
Margin of error
±3 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
41%
Sample size
39%
Margin of error
16%
RCV count
4%
Lisa Murkowski (R)
—
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
42%
Sample size
41%
Margin of error
17%
RCV count
—
Lisa Murkowski (R)
—
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
57%
Sample size
43%
Margin of error
–
RCV count
—
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 6–11, 2022
Sample size
1,050 (LV)
RCV count
N/A
Lisa Murkowski (R)
35%
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
43%
Pat Chesbro (D)
13%
Buzz Kelley (R)
1%
Undecided / Not Ranked
7% U
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
38%
Sample size
46%
Margin of error
14%
RCV count
2%
Lisa Murkowski (R)
7% NR
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
38%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
14%
RCV count
–
Lisa Murkowski (R)
8% NR
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
50%
Margin of error
–
RCV count
10% NR
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
RCV count
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Pat Chesbro (D)
Buzz Kelley (R)
Undecided / Not Ranked
Alaska Survey Research
October 19–22, 2022
1,276 (LV)
±3 %
1
41%
39%
16%
4%
—
2
42%
41%
17%
—
—
3
56%
44%
–
—
Alaska Survey Research
September 25–27, 2022
1,282 (LV)
±3 %
1
41%
39%
16%
4%
—
2
42%
41%
17%
—
—
3
57%
43%
–
—
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
September 6–11, 2022
1,050 (LV)
N/A
35%
43%
13%
1%
7% U
1
38%
46%
14%
2%
7% NR
2
38%
47%
14%
–
8% NR
3
50%
50%
–
10% NR
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
July 2–5, 2022
Sample size
1,201 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
RCV count
1
Pat Chesbro (D)
17%
Dustin Darden (AIP)
5%
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
–
Al Gross (D/I)
35%
John Howe (AIP)
–
Joe Miller (L)
43%
Lisa Murkowski (R)
–
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
20%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
36%
RCV count
45%
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
52%
Margin of error
48%
Cygnal (R)
Cygnal (R)
Poll source
Cygnal (R)
Date(s) administered
March 14–16, 2022
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
RCV count
1
Pat Chesbro (D)
–
Dustin Darden (AIP)
29%
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
–
Al Gross (D/I)
45%
John Howe (AIP)
26%
Joe Miller (L)
–
?
?
Poll source
?
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
51%
RCV count
–
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 22–27, 2021
Sample size
969 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
RCV count
1
Pat Chesbro (D)
–
Dustin Darden (AIP)
22%
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
–
Al Gross (D/I)
35%
John Howe (AIP)
20%
Joe Miller (L)
23%
Lisa Murkowski (R)
–
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
23%
Sample size
42%
Margin of error
–
RCV count
35%
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
60%
Margin of error
40%
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
July 11–21, 2021
Sample size
947 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
RCV count
1
Pat Chesbro (D)
–
Dustin Darden (AIP)
19%
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
–
Al Gross (D/I)
18%
John Howe (AIP)
36%
Joe Miller (L)
–
Lisa Murkowski (R)
27%
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
21%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
39%
RCV count
40%
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
55%
Margin of error
45%
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
May 22–25, 2021
Sample size
1,023 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
RCV count
BA
Pat Chesbro (D)
–
Dustin Darden (AIP)
25%
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
4%
Al Gross (D/I)
–
John Howe (AIP)
19%
Joe Miller (L)
–
Lisa Murkowski (R)
39%
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
RCV count
54%
Pat Chesbro (D)
–
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
RCV count
Pat Chesbro (D)
Dustin Darden (AIP)
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D)
Al Gross (D/I)
John Howe (AIP)
Joe Miller (L)
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Alaska Survey Research
July 2–5, 2022
1,201 (LV)
± 2 %
1
17%
5%
–
35%
–
43%
–
2
20%
–
36%
45%
3
–
52%
48%
Cygnal (R)
March 14–16, 2022
500 (LV)
± 4 %
1
–
29%
–
45%
26%
–
?
49%
–
51%
–
Alaska Survey Research
October 22–27, 2021
969 (RV)
± 3 %
1
–
22%
–
35%
20%
23%
–
2
23%
42%
–
35%
3
–
60%
40%
Alaska Survey Research
July 11–21, 2021
947 (LV)
± 3 %
1
–
19%
–
18%
36%
–
27%
2
21%
–
39%
40%
3
–
55%
45%
Change Research (D)
May 22–25, 2021
1,023 (LV)
± 3 %
BA
–
25%
4%
–
19%
–
39%
3
46%
–
–
54%
–

References

  1. Remained on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline of 64 days ahead of the election.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. Kelley eliminated.
  4. Chesbro eliminated.
  5. The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4 %; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3 %.
  6. Standard polling question.
  7. Kelley eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 29% to Tshibaka and 71% not ranked further.
  8. Chesbro eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 77% to Murkowski, 8% to Tshibaka, and 15% not ranked further.
  9. Would not vote with 1%
  10. Excluding undecided voters
  11. Poll sponsored by AARP
  12. This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
  13. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action
  14. Gomez, Henry J. "Sen. Lisa Murkowski wins re-election in Alaska, fending off Trump-backed challenge after a ranked-choic
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/sen-lisa-murkowski-wins-re-election-alaska-fending-trump-backed-challe-rcna58447
  15. KTOO (FM)
    https://www.ktoo.org/2020/11/17/alaska-will-have-a-new-election-system-voters-pass-ballot-measure-2/
  16. "Alaska Division of Elections, Primary Election Info"
    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/primaryelectioninformation.php
  17. Fox News
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/alaska-gop-censures-murkowski-primary-challenger
  18. The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/16/lisa-murkowski-censured-alaska-republicans
  19. CNN
    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/06/politics/murkowski-trump-endorsement-alaska-senate-race-2022/index.html
  20. Washington Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/alaska-senate-murkowski-mcconnell-trump/
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