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2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

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2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska. Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won re-election to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count. This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure. Earlier that year, a special election was held to complete the term of Don Young, who died in office in March 2022, which Peltola won. In the race for the full term in the congressional seat, all candidates first ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary. Each voter cast a single vote to choose who would advance to the runoff. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye advanced to the runoff. Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes. These votes were then transferred to either Peltola or Palin, depending on who the voter ranked higher on their ballot. Peltola won with 55% of the vote, increasing her margin from the special election. Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race, and the best performance for any statewide candidate in Alaska since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won (or flipped) a district that Donald Trump had carried in the 2020 presidential election. She outran Joe Biden's vote margin by 20 points, the best overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms. Peltola won the election in the final round, with a majority of voters ranking her over Palin. Peltola was defeated for re-election by Begich in a rematch in 2024.

Infobox

Candidate
Mary Peltola
Party
Democratic
First round
128,553 48 %
Maximum round
137,263 54 %

Tables

Primary election results · Primary election › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
191,015
Candidate
100
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Mary Peltola
70,295
36
Republican
Sarah Palin
57,693
30
Republican
Nick Begich III
50,021
26
Republican
Tara Sweeney (withdrew)
7,195
3
Libertarian
Chris Bye
1,189
0
Libertarian
J. R. Myers
531
0
Republican
Bob Lyons
447
0
Republican
Jay Armstrong
403
0
Republican
Brad Snowden
355
0
Republican
Randy Purham
311
0
Independent
Lady Donna Dutchess
270
0
Independent
Sherry Strizak
252
0
American Independent
Robert Ornelas
248
0
Republican
Denise Williams
242
0
Independent
Gregg Brelsford
241
0
Independent
David Hughes
238
0
Independent
Andrew Phelps
222
0
Independent
Tremayne Wilson
194
0
Independent
Sherry Mettler
191
0
Independent
Silvio Pellegrini
187
0
Independent
Ted Heintz
173
0
Independent
Davis LeBlanc
117
0
Total votes
191,015
100
· General election › Predictions
Lean D
Lean D
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 1, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 3, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 2, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean D
As of
October 26, 2022
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 3, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Fox News
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 1, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 8, 2022
Tossup
Tossup
Source
FiveThirtyEight
Ranking
Tossup
As of
November 3, 2022
Lean D
Lean D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Lean D
As of
November 2, 2022
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
November 1, 2022
Inside Elections
Lean D
November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
November 2, 2022
Politico
Lean D
October 26, 2022
RCP
Tossup
November 3, 2022
Fox News
Lean D
November 1, 2022
DDHQ
Lean D
November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight
Tossup
November 3, 2022
The Economist
Lean D
November 2, 2022
2022 Alaska U . Representative debates · General election › Debates and forums
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
No.
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Nick Begich III
Nick Begich III
No.
Nick Begich III
Date
Chris Bye
Host
Sarah Palin
Moderator
Mary Peltola
1
1
No.
1
Date
August 31, 2022
Host
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Moderator
Dave Karp
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
2
2
No.
2
Date
October 4, 2022
Host
Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM)
Moderator
Dan Rohr
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
3
3
No.
3
Date
October 10, 2022
Host
Anchorage Chamber of Commerce
Moderator
Julie Hasquet
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
A
Participants
P
4
4
No.
4
Date
October 21, 2022
Host
Alaska Federation of Natives
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
5
5
No.
5
Date
October 26, 2022
Host
Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source
Moderator
Lori Townsend, Mike Ross
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
Participants
P
No.
Date
Host
Moderator
Link
Participants
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn
Nick Begich III
Chris Bye
Sarah Palin
Mary Peltola
1
August 31, 2022
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Dave Karp
P
P
P
P
2
October 4, 2022
Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM)
Dan Rohr
P
P
P
P
3
October 10, 2022
Anchorage Chamber of Commerce
Julie Hasquet
P
P
A
P
4
October 21, 2022
Alaska Federation of Natives
P
P
P
P
5
October 26, 2022
Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source
Lori Townsend, Mike Ross
P
P
P
P
· General election › Polling
Dittman Research
Dittman Research
Poll source
Dittman Research
Date(s) administered
November 2–3, 2022
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
25%
Margin of error
23%
RCV count
3%
Mary Peltola (D)
1% U 1% O
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
26%
Margin of error
25%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
56%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
Elim
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
October 19–22, 2022
Sample size
1,276 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
26%
Margin of error
21%
RCV count
5%
Mary Peltola (D)
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
27%
Margin of error
22%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
57%
Sample size
43%
Margin of error
Elim
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3*
3*
Poll source
3*
Date(s) administered
56%
Sample size
Elim
Margin of error
44%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
Dittman Research
Dittman Research
Poll source
Dittman Research
Date(s) administered
October 4–8, 2022
Sample size
411 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
23%
Margin of error
28%
RCV count
3%
Mary Peltola (D)
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
24%
Margin of error
30%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
Elim
Margin of error
48%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
September 25–27, 2022
Sample size
1,282 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
23%
Margin of error
26%
RCV count
2%
Mary Peltola (D)
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
24%
Margin of error
26%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
54%
Sample size
Elim
Margin of error
46%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3*
3*
Poll source
3*
Date(s) administered
56%
Sample size
44%
Margin of error
Elim
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
Dittman Research
Dittman Research
Poll source
Dittman Research
Date(s) administered
September 6–14, 2022
Sample size
394 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
27%
Margin of error
20%
RCV count
3%
Mary Peltola (D)
1% U 1% O
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
28%
Margin of error
21%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
58%
Sample size
42%
Margin of error
Elim
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 6–11, 2022
Sample size
1,050 (LV)
RCV count
N/A
Mary Peltola (D)
45%
Sarah Palin (R)
30%
Nick Begich (R)
20%
Chris Bye (L)
2%
Undecided / Not Ranked / Other
3% U
1
1
Poll source
1
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
31%
Margin of error
20%
RCV count
2%
Mary Peltola (D)
3% NR
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
32%
Margin of error
21%
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
4% NR
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
53%
Sample size
47%
Margin of error
Elim
RCV count
Elim
Mary Peltola (D)
10% NR
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
RCV count
Mary Peltola (D)
Sarah Palin (R)
Nick Begich (R)
Chris Bye (L)
Undecided / Not Ranked / Other
Dittman Research
November 2–3, 2022
400 (LV)
± 4 %
1
48%
25%
23%
3%
1% U 1% O
2
49%
26%
25%
Elim
3
56%
44%
Elim
Elim
Alaska Survey Research
October 19–22, 2022
1,276 (LV)
± 3 %
1
49%
26%
21%
5%
2
51%
27%
22%
Elim
3
57%
43%
Elim
Elim
3*
56%
Elim
44%
Elim
Dittman Research
October 4–8, 2022
411 (LV)
± 4 %
1
45%
23%
28%
3%
2
46%
24%
30%
Elim
3
52%
Elim
48%
Elim
Alaska Survey Research
September 25–27, 2022
1,282 (LV)
± 3 %
1
49%
23%
26%
2%
2
50%
24%
26%
Elim
3
54%
Elim
46%
Elim
3*
56%
44%
Elim
Elim
Dittman Research
September 6–14, 2022
394 (LV)
± 4 %
1
50%
27%
20%
3%
1% U 1% O
2
51%
28%
21%
Elim
3
58%
42%
Elim
Elim
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
September 6–11, 2022
1,050 (LV)
N/A
45%
30%
20%
2%
3% U
1
46%
31%
20%
2%
3% NR
2
47%
32%
21%
Elim
4% NR
3
53%
47%
Elim
Elim
10% NR
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
July 20–25, 2022
Sample size
1,253 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
RCV count
1
Nick Begich (R)
26%
Sarah Palin (R)
27%
Mary Peltola (D)
39%
Tara Sweeney (R)
8%
Undecided
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
29%
Sample size
29%
Margin of error
42%
RCV count
Elim
Nick Begich (R)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
54%
Sample size
Elim
Margin of error
46%
RCV count
Elim
Nick Begich (R)
3*
3*
Poll source
3*
Date(s) administered
Elim
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
53%
RCV count
Elim
Nick Begich (R)
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
July 2–5, 2022
Sample size
1,201 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
RCV count
1
Nick Begich (R)
27%
Sarah Palin (R)
27%
Mary Peltola (D)
38%
Tara Sweeney (R)
8%
Undecided
2
2
Poll source
2
Date(s) administered
31%
Sample size
29%
Margin of error
41%
RCV count
Elim
Nick Begich (R)
3
3
Poll source
3
Date(s) administered
56%
Sample size
Elim
Margin of error
44%
RCV count
Elim
Nick Begich (R)
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
RCV count
Nick Begich (R)
Sarah Palin (R)
Mary Peltola (D)
Tara Sweeney (R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research
July 20–25, 2022
1,253 (LV)
± 3 %
1
26%
27%
39%
8%
2
29%
29%
42%
Elim
3
54%
Elim
46%
Elim
3*
Elim
48%
53%
Elim
Alaska Survey Research
July 2–5, 2022
1,201 (LV)
± 2 %
1
27%
27%
38%
8%
2
31%
29%
41%
Elim
3
56%
Elim
44%
Elim

References

  1. The others were Marcy Kaptur, Jared Golden, Matt Cartwright, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
  2. Chris Bye placed fifth in the nonpartisan primary. However, the fourth-place finisher — Tara Sweeney — withdrew, placing
  3. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  4. Hypothetical scenario with Begich and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  6. The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4 %; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3 %.
  7. Standard polling question.
  8. Bye eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 33% to Begich, 25% to Palin, 17% to Peltola, and 25% not ranked further.
  9. Begich eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 56% to Palin, 14% to Peltola, 30% not ranked further.
  10. Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  11. Poll sponsored by AARP
  12. Bye replaced fourth-place finisher Tara Sweeney after she dropped out of the race.
  13. CNN
    https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/23/politics/peltola-palin-alaska-election-results/index.html
  14. Alaska Public Media
    https://www.alaskapublic.org/2022/03/18/alaska-congressman-don-young-has-died/
  15. Alaska Public Media
    https://alaskapublic.org/2022/08/23/tara-sweeney-ends-campaign-for-u-s-house/
  16. KTOO
    https://www.ktoo.org/2020/11/17/alaska-will-have-a-new-election-system-voters-pass-ballot-measure-2/
  17. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/23/us/politics/mary-peltola-alaska-house-race.html
  18. Alaska Division of Elections
    https://www.elections.alaska.gov/Core/candidatelistspecprim.php
  19. Anchorage Daily News
    https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/04/01/live-updates-alaskas-us-house-race-expands-as-5-pm-deadline-nears/#sattler
  20. The Midnight Sun
    https://midnightsunak.com/2022/06/16/democrats-drop-from-u-s-house-race-most-backing-peltola/
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