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2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

Updated: Wikipedia source

2021 Virginia gubernatorial election

The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was held concurrently with other elections for Virginia's statewide offices, the House of Delegates, and other United States' offices. Incumbent Democratic governor Ralph Northam was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms. Businessman Glenn Youngkin won the Republican nomination at the party's May 8 convention, which was held in 37 polling locations across the state, and was officially declared the nominee on May 10. The Democratic Party held its primary election on June 8, which former Governor Terry McAuliffe won. At the start of the general election, McAuliffe was widely considered to be the favorite, but Youngkin closed the gap throughout most of the fall, leading most analysts to label the election as a toss-up. Youngkin ended up narrowly defeating McAuliffe by 63,688 votes, in a mild upset. Youngkin's coattails seemingly benefitted fellow down-ballot candidates Winsome Earle-Sears and Jason Miyares who concurrently won elections for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General; 2021 remains the only time the Republican Party has won statewide elections in Virginia since 2009. The economy, education, public health, and cultural issues were centerpieces of Youngkin's campaign. Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of critical race theory within public schools on "day one", push back against certain COVID-19 restrictions including vaccination mandates and mask mandates, and advocate for small government within the state of Virginia. Democrats tried to portray Youngkin as a political ally of Donald Trump, who lost Virginia in 2020, and Trump did indeed express support for Youngkin. Walking a fine line between welcoming the endorsement and demonstrating independence, Youngkin was successfully able to appeal to both Republicans and independents. Political analysts believe that the main reason for the Democratic Party's defeat in Virginia was that voters were not satisfied with the performance of President Joe Biden, with whom McAuliffe allied himself.

Infobox

Turnout
54 % 7 pp
Nominee
Glenn Youngkin
Party
Republican
Popular vote
1,663,158
Percentage
50 %

Tables

Democratic Primary Debates · Democratic primary › Debates
April 6, 2021
April 6, 2021
Date
April 6, 2021
Venue
Virginia State University
Terry McAuliffe
Participant
Jennifer Carroll Foy
Participant
Jennifer McClellan
Participant
Justin Fairfax
Participant
Lee J. Carter
Participant
Date
Venue
Video
Terry McAuliffe
Jennifer Carroll Foy
Jennifer McClellan
Justin Fairfax
Lee J. Carter
April 6, 2021
Virginia State University
Participant
Participant
Participant
Participant
Participant
· Democratic primary › Polling
Roanoke College
Roanoke College
Poll source
Roanoke College
Date(s) administered
May 24 – June 1, 2021
Sample size
637 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
11%
Lee Carter
1%
Justin Fairfax
5%
Terry McAuliffe
49%
Jennifer McClellan
9%
Other
0%
Undecided
24%
Christopher Newport University
Christopher Newport University
Poll source
Christopher Newport University
Date(s) administered
April 11–20, 2021
Sample size
806 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
5%
Lee Carter
1%
Justin Fairfax
8%
Terry McAuliffe
47%
Jennifer McClellan
6%
Other
2%
Undecided
31%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
April 12–13, 2021
Sample size
526 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
8%
Lee Carter
4%
Justin Fairfax
7%
Terry McAuliffe
42%
Jennifer McClellan
8%
Other
Undecided
29%
Christopher Newport University
Christopher Newport University
Poll source
Christopher Newport University
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 14, 2021
Sample size
488 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
4%
Lee Carter
1%
Justin Fairfax
12%
Terry McAuliffe
26%
Jennifer McClellan
4%
Other
0%
Undecided
54%
YouGov Blue (D)
YouGov Blue (D)
Poll source
YouGov Blue (D)
Date(s) administered
February 6–11, 2021
Sample size
235 (RV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
7%
Lee Carter
6%
Justin Fairfax
6%
Terry McAuliffe
43%
Jennifer McClellan
8%
Other
0%
Undecided
30%
Global Strategy Group (D)
Global Strategy Group (D)
Poll source
Global Strategy Group (D)
Date(s) administered
January 12–20, 2021
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Jennifer Carroll Foy
7%
Lee Carter
Justin Fairfax
14%
Terry McAuliffe
42%
Jennifer McClellan
6%
Other
Undecided
30%
Expedition Strategies (D)
Expedition Strategies (D)
Poll source
Expedition Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
December 2020
Sample size
– (LV)
Margin of error
Jennifer Carroll Foy
5%
Lee Carter
Justin Fairfax
16%
Terry McAuliffe
32%
Jennifer McClellan
8%
Other
Undecided
38%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jennifer Carroll Foy
Lee Carter
Justin Fairfax
Terry McAuliffe
Jennifer McClellan
Other
Undecided
Roanoke College
May 24 – June 1, 2021
637 (LV)
± 3 %
11%
1%
5%
49%
9%
0%
24%
Christopher Newport University
April 11–20, 2021
806 (LV)
± 3 %
5%
1%
8%
47%
6%
2%
31%
Public Policy Polling (D)
April 12–13, 2021
526 (LV)
± 4 %
8%
4%
7%
42%
8%
29%
Christopher Newport University
January 31 – February 14, 2021
488 (RV)
± 4 %
4%
1%
12%
26%
4%
0%
54%
YouGov Blue (D)
February 6–11, 2021
235 (RV)
± 7 %
7%
6%
6%
43%
8%
0%
30%
Global Strategy Group (D)
January 12–20, 2021
600 (LV)
± 4 %
7%
14%
42%
6%
30%
Expedition Strategies (D)
December 2020
– (LV)
5%
16%
32%
8%
38%
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
494,932
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Terry McAuliffe
307,367
62 %
Democratic
Jennifer Carroll Foy
98,052
19 %
Democratic
Jennifer McClellan
58,213
11 %
Democratic
Justin Fairfax
17,606
3 %
Democratic
Lee J. Carter
13,694
2 %
Total votes
494,932
100 %
· Republican convention › Polling › Primary polling
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
May 5–6, 2021
Sample size
605 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Amanda Chase
29%
Kirk Cox
7%
Sergio de la Peña
2%
Peter Doran
0%
Octavia Johnson
1%
Pete Snyder
13%
Glenn Youngkin
25%
Other
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
April 2021
Sample size
695 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Amanda Chase
22%
Kirk Cox
7%
Sergio de la Peña
3%
Peter Doran
1%
Octavia Johnson
0%
Pete Snyder
16%
Glenn Youngkin
21%
Other
Christopher Newport University
Christopher Newport University
Poll source
Christopher Newport University
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 14, 2021
Sample size
370 (RV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Amanda Chase
17%
Kirk Cox
10%
Sergio de la Peña
Peter Doran
Octavia Johnson
Pete Snyder
Glenn Youngkin
3%
Other
YouGov Blue (D)
YouGov Blue (D)
Poll source
YouGov Blue (D)
Date(s) administered
February 6–11, 2021
Sample size
170 (RV)
Margin of error
± 8 %
Amanda Chase
24%
Kirk Cox
7%
Sergio de la Peña
1%
Peter Doran
Octavia Johnson
Pete Snyder
13%
Glenn Youngkin
5%
Other
0%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Amanda Chase
Kirk Cox
Sergio de la Peña
Peter Doran
Octavia Johnson
Pete Snyder
Glenn Youngkin
Other
Change Research (D)
May 5–6, 2021
605 (LV)
± 4 %
29%
7%
2%
0%
1%
13%
25%
Public Policy Polling (D)
April 2021
695 (LV)
± 3 %
22%
7%
3%
1%
0%
16%
21%
Christopher Newport University
January 31 – February 14, 2021
370 (RV)
± 5 %
17%
10%
3%
YouGov Blue (D)
February 6–11, 2021
170 (RV)
± 8 %
24%
7%
1%
13%
5%
0%
· Republican convention › Polling › Convention polling
The Trafalgar Group (R)
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group (R)
Date(s) administered
April 29 – May 3, 2021
Sample size
3,896 (LV)
Margin of error
± 1 %
Amanda Chase
10%
Kirk Cox
10%
Pete Snyder
26%
Glenn Youngkin
38%
Other
13%
Undecided
3%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Amanda Chase
Kirk Cox
Pete Snyder
Glenn Youngkin
Other
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)
April 29 – May 3, 2021
3,896 (LV)
± 1 %
10%
10%
26%
38%
13%
3%

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. Carter registered as an Independent in 2022, but was a Democrat when making the endorsement.
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. Blanding with 2%
  5. Blanding with 1%
  6. Blanding with 3%; "Would not vote" and "None of these" with 1%
  7. "Neither" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  8. Blanding with 1%; "Would not vote" and "None of these" with 0%
  9. "Would not vote" and "Neither" with 0%
  10. Blanding with 5%
  11. Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
  12. Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
  13. Blanding with 1%; Other with 1%
  14. Blanding with 2%; "None/Would not vote" with 5%; "other/write-in" with 1%
  15. Blanding with 2%; "None/Would not vote" and "other/write-in" with 1%
  16. Blanding with 3%
  17. Blanding with 2%; Other with 1%
  18. Regions defined in The Washington Post.
  19. This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
  20. This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
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