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2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College. Although Trump had won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0 %, Biden was able to reclaim the state, winning it by a similarly narrow 1 % margin. Because of the way the state counted in-person ballots first, Trump started with a wide lead on election night. However, over the next few days, Biden greatly closed the margin due to outstanding votes from Democratic-leaning areas, most notably Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as mail-in ballots from all parts of the state which strongly favored him. On the morning of November 6, election-calling organization Decision Desk HQ forecast that Biden had won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, and with them the election. The following morning, November 7, at the same time that the Trump campaign was holding a press conference outside of a Philadelphia landscaping business, nearly all major news organizations followed suit and called Pennsylvania for Biden, proclaiming him president-elect. One key to Biden's success in the state was his improvement on Hillary Clinton's margins in the large Philadelphia-area suburban counties: he won Bucks by 3 % more than Clinton did, Delaware by 4 % more, Montgomery by 4 % more, and Chester—which Mitt Romney had narrowly won just eight years prior—by 6 % more. At the same time, he reclaimed two of the three large industrial counties which had voted Democratic for at least six consecutive elections before Trump flipped them in 2016: Erie and Northampton. While Trump prevailed in the third, Luzerne County, he did so by a reduced margin with respect to 2016; and Biden increased the margin of victory in his birth county, Lackawanna County, which Trump had nearly flipped in 2016. Biden halted the four-election Democratic slide in formerly traditionally Democratic Westmoreland County, where, before 2020, Al Gore had been the last Democrat to improve on the previous nominee's vote share (and which had given Trump his margin in the state in 2016). He also improved on Clinton's margins in Lehigh County by 2 % and won Allegheny County with the largest percentage of the vote since 1988; however, Biden's vote share in Philadelphia County actually declined slightly compared to Clinton's, although he still outperformed either Al Gore in 2000 or John Kerry in 2004 in the county. Biden became the first Democratic candidate running for president to garner at least 100,000 votes in the Republican stronghold county of Lancaster. He also became the second presidential candidate since 1964, the last time the county voted for a Democrat, to get at least 40% of the vote. This was due to the large number of votes Biden received from the city of Lancaster and a competitive margin in voting precincts in and around Lititz and Columbia. Despite Biden's victory, Pennsylvania weighed in for this election as 3 % more Republican than the national average. This is the second consecutive presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation. Previously, it had not done so since 1948. With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for the losing Democrat John Kerry. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Luzerne County since Harry Truman in 1948. This was the first election since 1932 that the county voted for the statewide loser.

Infobox

Turnout
76 % 5 pp
Nominee
Joe Biden
Party
Democratic
Home state
Delaware
Running mate
Kamala Harris
Electoral vote
20
Popular vote
3,458,229
Percentage
50 %

Tables

2020 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary · Primary elections › Republican primary
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Candidate
Donald Trump
Votes
1,053,616
%
92 %
Delegates
34
Bill Weld
Bill Weld
Candidate
Bill Weld
Votes
69,427
%
6 %
Delegates
0
Rocky De La Fuente
Rocky De La Fuente
Candidate
Rocky De La Fuente
Votes
20,456
%
1 %
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
1,143,499
%
100%
Delegates
34
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Donald Trump
1,053,616
92 %
34
Bill Weld
69,427
6 %
0
Rocky De La Fuente
20,456
1 %
0
Total
1,143,499
100%
34
2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
1,264,624
%
79
Delegates
151
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Candidate
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Votes
287,834
%
18
Delegates
35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Votes
43,050
%
2
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
1,595,508
%
100%
Delegates
186
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
1,264,624
79
151
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
287,834
18
35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
43,050
2
Total
1,595,508
100%
186
· General election › Predictions
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
Likely D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Source
Niskanen
Ranking
Likely D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
CNN
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
270towin
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
NPR
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Source
538
Ranking
Likely D (flip)
Source
Ranking
The Cook Political Report
Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections
Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D (flip)
Politico
Lean D (flip)
RCP
Tossup
Niskanen
Likely D (flip)
CNN
Lean D (flip)
The Economist
Likely D (flip)
CBS News
Lean D (flip)
270towin
Lean D (flip)
ABC News
Lean D (flip)
NPR
Lean D (flip)
NBC News
Lean D (flip)
538
Likely D (flip)
· General election › Polling › Aggregate polls
270 to Win
270 to Win
Source of poll aggregation
270 to Win
Dates administered
October 22 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
49 %
Donald Trump Republican
45 %
Other/ Undecided
4 %
Margin
Biden +3
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation
Real Clear Politics
Dates administered
October 29 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other/ Undecided
3 %
Margin
Biden +1
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
50 %
Donald Trump Republican
45 %
Other/ Undecided
4 %
Margin
Biden +4
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
49 %
Dates updated
46 %
Joe Biden Democratic
4 %
Donald Trump Republican
Biden +3
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
270 to Win
October 22 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
49 %
45 %
4 %
Biden +3
Real Clear Politics
October 29 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
48 %
47 %
3 %
Biden +1
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
50 %
45 %
4 %
Biden +4
Average
49 %
46 %
4 %
Biden +3
· General election › Polling › 2020 polls
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Poll source
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Date(s) administered
Nov 1–2
Sample size
499 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 20 – Nov 2
Sample size
6,045 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Poll source
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Date(s) administered
Oct 31 – Nov 1
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
Research Co.
Research Co.
Poll source
Research Co.
Date(s) administered
Oct 31 – Nov 1
Sample size
450 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
AYTM/Aspiration
AYTM/Aspiration
Poll source
AYTM/Aspiration
Date(s) administered
Oct 30 – Nov 1
Sample size
340 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Sample size
699 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
2%
Marist College/NBC
Marist College/NBC
Poll source
Marist College/NBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Sample size
772 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
2%
Monmouth University
Monmouth University
Poll source
Monmouth University
Date(s) administered
Oct 28 – Nov 1
Sample size
502(RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
4%
502 (LV)
502 (LV)
Poll source
502 (LV)
Date(s) administered
44%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
-
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
45%
45%
Poll source
45%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 1
Sample size
1,107 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 1
Sample size
1,417 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
0%
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 1
Sample size
673 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
1%
Other
2%
Undecided
44%
44%
Poll source
44%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
Trafalgar
Trafalgar
Poll source
Trafalgar
Date(s) administered
Oct 30–31
Sample size
1,062 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
Poll source
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
Date(s) administered
Oct 30–31
Sample size
879 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Poll source
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Date(s) administered
Oct 30–31
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Joe Biden Democratic
47 %
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1 %
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
2 %
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–31
Sample size
1,862 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
5%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 22–31
Sample size
2,686 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
Oct 29–30
Sample size
823 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
Oct 29–30
Sample size
672 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Poll source
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Date(s) administered
Oct 25–30
Sample size
998 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
56%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Poll source
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Date(s) administered
Oct 28–29
Sample size
1,012 (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–29
Sample size
2,125 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill
Harvard-Harris/The Hill
Poll source
Harvard-Harris/The Hill
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–29
Sample size
901 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
3%
ABC/Washington Post
ABC/Washington Post
Poll source
ABC/Washington Post
Date(s) administered
Oct 24–29
Sample size
824 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Poll source
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–28
Sample size
419 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
4%
Undecided
2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–28
Sample size
10,599 (LV)
Margin of error
± 1 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
-
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Poll source
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Date(s) administered
Oct 25–27
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
2%
44%
44%
Poll source
44%
Date(s) administered
52%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–27
Sample size
1,324 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
4%
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–26
Sample size
491 (LV)
Margin of error
± 6%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Poll source
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–26
Sample size
1,145 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
1%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 20–26
Sample size
655 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
1%
Undecided
45%
45%
Poll source
45%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Poll source
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Date(s) administered
Oct 25
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
48 %
Joe Biden Democratic
45 %
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3 %
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
2 %
Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar Group
Poll source
Trafalgar Group
Date(s) administered
Oct 24–25
Sample size
1,076 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
1%
Wick Surveys
Wick Surveys
Poll source
Wick Surveys
Date(s) administered
Oct 24–25
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College
Franklin & Marshall College
Poll source
Franklin & Marshall College
Date(s) administered
Oct 19–25
Sample size
558 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Poll source
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Date(s) administered
Oct 17–25
Sample size
723 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
2%
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
Oct 23
Sample size
602 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Poll source
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Date(s) administered
Oct 21–22
Sample size
980 (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins
Poll source
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins
Date(s) administered
Oct 17–21
Sample size
1,577 (A)
Margin of error
3%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
Poll source
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–21
Sample size
669 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
Citizen Data
Citizen Data
Poll source
Citizen Data
Date(s) administered
Oct 17–20
Sample size
1,000 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
39%
Joe Biden Democratic
44%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
9%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
1%
Undecided
7%
CNN/SSRS
CNN/SSRS
Poll source
CNN/SSRS
Date(s) administered
Oct 15–20
Sample size
843 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
53%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Poll source
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–20
Sample size
416 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 11–20
Sample size
2,563 (LV)
Margin of error
± 1 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Fox News
Fox News
Poll source
Fox News
Date(s) administered
Oct 18–19
Sample size
1,045 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Poll source
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Date(s) administered
Oct 18–19
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
3%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
Oct 16–19
Sample size
1,241 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
5%
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 16–19
Sample size
574 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Suffolk University/USA Today
Suffolk University/USA Today
Poll source
Suffolk University/USA Today
Date(s) administered
Oct 15–19
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
4%
Undecided
4%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–19
Sample size
653 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
3%
Undecided
45%
45%
Poll source
45%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
4%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC
Poll source
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–15
Sample size
1,041 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
2%
HarrisX/The Hill
HarrisX/The Hill
Poll source
HarrisX/The Hill
Date(s) administered
Oct 12–15
Sample size
1,289 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Poll source
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Date(s) administered
Oct 12–13
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 10–13
Sample size
1,289 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
Undecided
Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar Group
Poll source
Trafalgar Group
Date(s) administered
Oct 10–12
Sample size
1,034 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Poll source
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Date(s) administered
Oct 7–12
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
Other
1%
Undecided
6%
42%
42%
Poll source
42%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
1%
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
1%
Joe Biden Democratic
6%
45%
45%
Poll source
45%
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
1%
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
1%
Joe Biden Democratic
6%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising
Poll source
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising
Date(s) administered
Oct 8–11
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
1%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 6–11
Sample size
622 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
2%
Undecided
44%
44%
Poll source
44%
Date(s) administered
51%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
1%
Joe Biden Democratic
4%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 2–11
Sample size
2,610 (LV)
Margin of error
± 1 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 9–10
Sample size
1,145 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Whitman Insight Strategies
Whitman Insight Strategies
Poll source
Whitman Insight Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 5–9
Sample size
517 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
3%
Baldwin Wallace University
Baldwin Wallace University
Poll source
Baldwin Wallace University
Date(s) administered
Sep 30 – Oct 8
Sample size
1,140 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
0%
Undecided
4%
YouGov/CCES
YouGov/CCES
Poll source
YouGov/CCES
Date(s) administered
Sep 29 – Oct 7
Sample size
2,703 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 4–6
Sample size
927 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
7%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
Oct 4–5
Sample size
688 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–5
Sample size
1,211 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Joe Biden Democratic
54%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
3%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Sep 29 – Oct 5
Sample size
605 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
3%
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 2–4
Sample size
468 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Monmouth University
Monmouth University
Poll source
Monmouth University
Date(s) administered
Sep 30 – Oct 4
Sample size
500 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
54%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
2%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Howie Hawkins Green
Other
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.
Nov 1–2
499 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
48%
1%
-
0%
0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 20 – Nov 2
6,045 (LV)
± 2%
47%
52%
-
-
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Oct 31 – Nov 1
800 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
50%
-
-
1%
Research Co.
Oct 31 – Nov 1
450 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
52%
-
-
2%
4%
AYTM/Aspiration
Oct 30 – Nov 1
340 (LV)
49%
51%
-
-
Change Research/CNBC
Oct 29 – Nov 1
699 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
50%
2%
-
2%
Marist College/NBC
Oct 29 – Nov 1
772 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
51%
-
-
1%
2%
Monmouth University
Oct 28 – Nov 1
502(RV)
± 4 %
45%
50%
1%
-
0%
4%
502 (LV)
44%
51%
-
-
45%
50%
-
-
Swayable
Oct 27 – Nov 1
1,107 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
50%
2%
-
Data for Progress
Oct 27 – Nov 1
1,417 (LV)
± 2 %
45%
52%
2%
0%
0%
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 27 – Nov 1
673 (LV)
± 4 %
45%
51%
1%
1%
2%
44%
51%
-
-
3%
2%
46%
52%
-
-
2%
Trafalgar
Oct 30–31
1,062 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
46%
2%
-
1%
4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere
Oct 30–31
879 (LV)
± 3%
48%
52%
-
-
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Oct 30–31
500 (LV)
± 4 %
48 %
47 %
1 %
-
2 %
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Oct 26–31
1,862 (LV)
± 2 %
43%
49%
2%
-
0%
5%
Morning Consult
Oct 22–31
2,686 (LV)
± 2%
43%
52%
-
-
Emerson College
Oct 29–30
823 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
52%
-
-
2%
AtlasIntel
Oct 29–30
672 (LV)
± 4%
50%
49%
-
-
2%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Oct 25–30
998 (LV)
42%
56%
-
-
2%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Oct 28–29
1,012 (V)
45%
52%
-
-
3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Oct 26–29
2,125 (LV)
45%
50%
1%
-
1%
3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill
Oct 26–29
901 (LV)
46%
51%
-
-
3%
ABC/Washington Post
Oct 24–29
824 (LV)
± 4%
44%
51%
3%
-
0%
1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Oct 23–28
419 (LV)
± 5 %
44%
49%
-
-
4%
2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 1–28
10,599 (LV)
± 1 %
46%
52%
-
-
-
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Oct 25–27
800 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
51%
-
-
2%
2%
44%
52%
-
-
2%
2%
47%
49%
-
-
2%
2%
Quinnipiac University
Oct 23–27
1,324 (LV)
± 2 %
44%
51%
-
-
1%
4%
Swayable
Oct 23–26
491 (LV)
± 6%
46%
52%
2%
-
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Oct 23–26
1,145 (LV)
± 3%
45%
52%
-
-
2%
1%
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 20–26
655 (LV)
± 4 %
44%
51%
3%
0%
1%
45%
50%
-
-
3%
2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness
Oct 25
400 (LV)
± 4 %
48 %
45 %
3 %
-
2 %
Trafalgar Group
Oct 24–25
1,076 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
48%
2%
-
1%
1%
Wick Surveys
Oct 24–25
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
47%
-
-
Franklin & Marshall College
Oct 19–25
558 (LV)
± 5%
44%
50%
2%
-
1%
3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Oct 17–25
723 (RV)
± 3 %
45%
50%
-
-
3%
2%
Gravis Marketing
Oct 23
602 (LV)
± 4%
44%
51%
-
-
5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC
Oct 21–22
980 (V)
46%
51%
-
-
4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins
Oct 17–21
1,577 (A)
3%
46%
52%
-
-
2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison
Oct 13–21
669 (LV)
± 4 %
44%
52%
-
-
3%
Citizen Data
Oct 17–20
1,000 (LV)
± 3 %
39%
44%
9%
0%
1%
7%
CNN/SSRS
Oct 15–20
843 (LV)
± 4%
43%
53%
2%
-
1%
1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
Oct 13–20
416 (LV)
± 5 %
44%
51%
-
-
2%
4%

References

  1. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  5. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  6. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  7. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. CPEC campaigns exclusively for Democratic candidates
  9. The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. Unite the Country PAC endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  11. The League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  12. Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  13. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  15. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
  16. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  17. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  18. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  19. Would not vote with 0%
  20. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
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