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2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska

The 2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts. Located in the conservative Great Plains, Nebraska is one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, having backed the Democratic presidential nominee only once since 1936, during Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide, and having gone to the Republican nominee by a double-digit margin in every presidential election since. However, Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, to allocate its electoral votes by congressional district. A candidate receives one electoral vote for each district won while the statewide winner receives an additional two electoral votes. Ever since Nebraska first adopted this system in 1992, in practice the Republican nominee has almost always won all three districts, and hence all the state's electoral votes. The first time it split its electoral votes came in 2008 when Barack Obama carried Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, anchored by Omaha, and thus received one electoral vote from the state despite losing statewide. The 2nd district returned to the Republican column in the following two elections, but in 2020 it was considered a key battleground. Trump carried Nebraska statewide by 19 points on Election Day, down from 25 points in 2016. Biden was able to flip the 2nd district, carrying it by 6 points, the best Democratic performance since Nebraska first adopted its system of allocation by district, and the first time in this period that the district has voted more Democratic than the nation. Nebraska's 6% margin swing between 2016 and 2020 represented the largest leftward shift towards the Democratic Party out of any state won by Trump that the Democrats otherwise failed to flip, even shifting more leftward than Michigan which was Biden's strongest performance in a state won by Trump in 2016. Trump received the state's other four electoral votes. Before the election, all news organizations declared Nebraska a safe red state, while most organizations viewed the 2nd district as either leaning towards Biden or a tossup. This was the first election in which both Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes.

Infobox

Turnout
76 % (of registered voters)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
Mike Pence
Electoral vote
4
Popular vote
556,846
Percentage
58 %

Tables

2020 Nebraska Republican primary · Primary elections › Republican primary
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Candidate
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Votes
243,721
%
91
Estimated delegates
36
Bill Weld
Bill Weld
Candidate
Bill Weld
Votes
22,934
%
8
Estimated delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
266,655
%
100%
Estimated delegates
36
Candidate
Votes
%
Estimated delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)
243,721
91
36
Bill Weld
22,934
8
0
Total
266,655
100%
36
2020 Nebraska Democratic presidential primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
126,444
%
76
Delegates
29
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Candidate
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Votes
23,214
%
14
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Candidate
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Votes
10,401
%
6
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Votes
4,523
%
2
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
164,582
%
100%
Delegates
29
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
126,444
76
29
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
23,214
14
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
10,401
6
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
4,523
2
Total
164,582
100%
29
Nebraska Libertarian presidential primary, May 12, 2020 · Primary elections › Libertarian primary
Jo Jorgensen
Jo Jorgensen
Candidate
Jo Jorgensen
Votes
508
Percentage
27 %
Jacob Hornberger
Jacob Hornberger
Candidate
Jacob Hornberger
Votes
444
Percentage
24 %
Adam Kokesh
Adam Kokesh
Candidate
Adam Kokesh
Votes
263
Percentage
14 %
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)
Candidate
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)
Votes
254
Percentage
13 %
Max Abramson (withdrawn)
Max Abramson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Max Abramson (withdrawn)
Votes
182
Percentage
10 %
Dan Behrman
Dan Behrman
Candidate
Dan Behrman
Votes
177
Percentage
9 %
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
1,828
Percentage
100%
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Jo Jorgensen
508
27 %
Jacob Hornberger
444
24 %
Adam Kokesh
263
14 %
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn)
254
13 %
Max Abramson (withdrawn)
182
10 %
Dan Behrman
177
9 %
Total
1,828
100%
· General election › Final predictions
The Cook Political Report
The Cook Political Report
Source
The Cook Political Report
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
Inside Elections
Inside Elections
Source
Inside Elections
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Tilt D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Statewide
Safe R
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Safe R
Politico
Politico
Source
Politico
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
RCP
RCP
Source
RCP
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Tossup
3rd district
Solid R
Niskanen
Niskanen
Source
Niskanen
Statewide
Safe R
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Tossup
3rd district
Safe R
CNN
CNN
Source
CNN
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
The Economist
The Economist
Source
The Economist
Statewide
Safe R
1st district
Not given
2nd district
Not given
3rd district
Not given
CBS News
CBS News
Source
CBS News
Statewide
Likely R
1st district
Likely R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Likely R
270towin
270towin
Source
270towin
Statewide
Safe R
1st district
Safe R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Safe R
ABC News
ABC News
Source
ABC News
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
NPR
NPR
Source
NPR
Statewide
Likely R
1st district
Lean R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Likely R
NBC News
NBC News
Source
NBC News
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
538
538
Source
538
Statewide
Solid R
1st district
Solid R
2nd district
Lean D (flip)
3rd district
Solid R
Source
Statewide
1st district
2nd district
3rd district
The Cook Political Report
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
Inside Elections
Solid R
Solid R
Tilt D (flip)
Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Safe R
Lean D (flip)
Safe R
Politico
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
RCP
Solid R
Solid R
Tossup
Solid R
Niskanen
Safe R
Safe R
Tossup
Safe R
CNN
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
The Economist
Safe R
Not given
Not given
Not given
CBS News
Likely R
Likely R
Lean D (flip)
Likely R
270towin
Safe R
Safe R
Lean D (flip)
Safe R
ABC News
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
NPR
Likely R
Lean R
Lean D (flip)
Likely R
NBC News
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
538
Solid R
Solid R
Lean D (flip)
Solid R
· General election › Polling
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
42 %
Donald Trump Republican
52 %
Other/ Undecided
5 %
Margin
Trump +9
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
42 %
52 %
5 %
Trump +9

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Don't recall" and Would not vote with 0%
  5. With voters tho lean towards a given candidate
  6. "Someone else" with 2%
  7. "Undecided, will vote for another candidate or refused to answer" with 5%
  8. would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
  9. Includes "Refused"
  10. "Other candidate" with 1%
  11. "Other candidate" with 2%
  12. Poll sponsored by Bolz's campaign
  13. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  14. Poll sponsored by the House Majority PAC which exclusively endorses Democratic candidates
  15. Poll sponsored by Eastman's campaign
  16. Poll sponsored by the DCCC
  17. Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results
    https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsVoterTurnout.aspx
  18. The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html
  19. National Archives and Records Administration
    https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/allocation.html
  20. CBS News
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nebraska-primary-election-results-2020-05-12/
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