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2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against the DFL nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College. Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7 % margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1 % margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for president since 1972. Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, where he outperformed FDR, LBJ, Obama and Clinton. His vote share in Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range, although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between the New Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of White Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters from union households. Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Koochiching or Mahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win without Traverse County since Grover Cleveland in 1892; the first to win without Kittson, Norman, Itasca, or Beltrami Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1912; the first to win without Swift County since Wilson in 1916; the first to win without Lac qui Parle County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944; the first to win without Chippewa, Freeborn, Mower, or Rice Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960 and the first to win without Fillmore County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is the first time since 1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican than New Hampshire.

Infobox

Turnout
79 % (of eligible voters)
Nominee
Joe Biden
Party
Democratic (DFL)
Home state
Delaware
Running mate
Kamala Harris
Electoral vote
10
Popular vote
1,717,077
Percentage
52 %

Tables

2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary · Primary elections › Republican primary
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Candidate
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Votes
137,275
%
97
Delegates
39
Bill Weld (write-in)
Bill Weld (write-in)
Candidate
Bill Weld (write-in)
Votes
443
%
0
Delegates
0
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)
Candidate
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)
Votes
16
%
0
Delegates
0
Other write-ins
Other write-ins
Candidate
Other write-ins
Votes
2,821
%
2
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
140,555
%
100
Delegates
39 (of 39)
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)
137,275
97
39
Bill Weld (write-in)
443
0
0
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in)
16
0
0
Other write-ins
2,821
2
0
Total
140,555
100
39 (of 39)
2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
287,553
%
38
Delegates
38
Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders
Candidate
Bernie Sanders
Votes
222,431
%
29
Delegates
27
Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren
Candidate
Elizabeth Warren
Votes
114,674
%
15
Delegates
10
Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg
Candidate
Michael Bloomberg
Votes
61,882
%
8
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Candidate
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Votes
41,530
%
5
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Candidate
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Votes
7,616
%
1
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard
Votes
2,504
%
0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Candidate
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Votes
1,749
%
0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Candidate
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Votes
551
%
0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Candidate
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Votes
315
%
0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Votes
226
%
0
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
Candidate
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
Votes
197
%
0
John Delaney (withdrawn)
John Delaney (withdrawn)
Candidate
John Delaney (withdrawn)
Votes
172
%
0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Candidate
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Votes
114
%
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Candidate
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Votes
72
%
0
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
2,612
%
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
744,198
%
100%
Delegates
75
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
287,553
38
38
Bernie Sanders
222,431
29
27
Elizabeth Warren
114,674
15
10
Michael Bloomberg
61,882
8
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
41,530
5
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
7,616
1
Tulsi Gabbard
2,504
0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
1,749
0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
551
0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
315
0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
226
0
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
197
0
John Delaney (withdrawn)
172
0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
114
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
72
0
Uncommitted
2,612
0
Total
744,198
100%
75
Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucus, February 25, 2020 · Primary elections › Libertarian caucuses
Votes
Votes
Candidate
Votes
Round 1
%
Round 1
Transfer
Round 1
Votes
Round 7
%
Jacob Hornberger
Jacob Hornberger
Candidate
Jacob Hornberger
Round 1
37
Round 1
38 %
Round 1
+ 10
Round 7
47
Round 7
59 %
Jo Jorgensen
Jo Jorgensen
Candidate
Jo Jorgensen
Round 1
12
Round 1
12 %
Round 1
+ 20
Round 7
32
Round 7
40 %
Vermin Supreme
Vermin Supreme
Candidate
Vermin Supreme
Round 1
11
Round 1
11 %
Round 1
- 11
Round 7
Eliminated
Adam Kokesh
Adam Kokesh
Candidate
Adam Kokesh
Round 1
6
Round 1
6 %
Round 1
- 6
Round 7
Eliminated
John Monds
John Monds
Candidate
John Monds
Round 1
6
Round 1
6 %
Round 1
- 6
Round 7
Eliminated
Lincoln Chafee
Lincoln Chafee
Candidate
Lincoln Chafee
Round 1
6
Round 1
6 %
Round 1
- 6
Round 7
Eliminated
Mark Whitney
Mark Whitney
Candidate
Mark Whitney
Round 1
6
Round 1
6 %
Round 1
- 6
Round 7
Eliminated
N .
N .
Candidate
N .
Round 1
4
Round 1
4 %
Round 1
- 4
Round 7
Eliminated
Arvin Vohra
Arvin Vohra
Candidate
Arvin Vohra
Round 1
2
Round 1
2 %
Round 1
- 2
Round 7
Eliminated
Ken Armstrong
Ken Armstrong
Candidate
Ken Armstrong
Round 1
2
Round 1
2 %
Round 1
- 2
Round 7
Eliminated
Sam Robb
Sam Robb
Candidate
Sam Robb
Round 1
2
Round 1
2 %
Round 1
- 2
Round 7
Eliminated
Keenan Wallace Dunham
Keenan Wallace Dunham
Candidate
Keenan Wallace Dunham
Round 1
1
Round 1
1 %
Round 1
- 1
Round 7
Eliminated
Sorinne Ardeleanu
Sorinne Ardeleanu
Candidate
Sorinne Ardeleanu
Round 1
1
Round 1
1 %
Round 1
- 1
Round 7
Eliminated
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in)
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in)
Candidate
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in)
Round 1
1
Round 1
1 %
Round 1
- 1
Round 7
Eliminated
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman
Candidate
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman
Round 1
0
Round 1
0 %
Round 1
Eliminated
Jedi Hill
Jedi Hill
Candidate
Jedi Hill
Round 1
0
Round 1
0 %
Round 1
Eliminated
Souraya Faas
Souraya Faas
Candidate
Souraya Faas
Round 1
0
Round 1
0 %
Round 1
Eliminated
Steven Richey
Steven Richey
Candidate
Steven Richey
Round 1
0
Round 1
0 %
Round 1
Eliminated
Round 1 Total
Round 1 Total
Candidate
Round 1 Total
Round 1
97
Round 1
100 %
Round 1
Round 7 Total
Round 7
79
Round 7
100 %
Candidate
Round 1
Round 7
Votes
%
Transfer
Votes
%
Jacob Hornberger
37
38 %
+ 10
47
59 %
Jo Jorgensen
12
12 %
+ 20
32
40 %
Vermin Supreme
11
11 %
- 11
Eliminated
Adam Kokesh
6
6 %
- 6
Eliminated
John Monds
6
6 %
- 6
Eliminated
Lincoln Chafee
6
6 %
- 6
Eliminated
Mark Whitney
6
6 %
- 6
Eliminated
N .
4
4 %
- 4
Eliminated
Arvin Vohra
2
2 %
- 2
Eliminated
Ken Armstrong
2
2 %
- 2
Eliminated
Sam Robb
2
2 %
- 2
Eliminated
Keenan Wallace Dunham
1
1 %
- 1
Eliminated
Sorinne Ardeleanu
1
1 %
- 1
Eliminated
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in)
1
1 %
- 1
Eliminated
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman
0
0 %
Eliminated
Jedi Hill
0
0 %
Eliminated
Souraya Faas
0
0 %
Eliminated
Steven Richey
0
0 %
Eliminated
Round 1 Total
97
100 %
Round 7 Total
79
100 %
Minnesota Libertarian vice presidential caucus, February 25, 2020 · Primary elections › Libertarian caucuses
Votes
Votes
Candidate
Votes
Round 1
%
Round 1
Transfer
Round 1
Votes
Round 2
%
Jeff Wood
Jeff Wood
Candidate
Jeff Wood
Round 1
32
Round 1
40 %
Round 1
+ 0
Round 2
32
Round 2
52 %
Spike Cohen
Spike Cohen
Candidate
Spike Cohen
Round 1
29
Round 1
36 %
Round 1
+ 0
Round 2
29
Round 2
47 %
NOTA
NOTA
Candidate
NOTA
Round 1
19
Round 1
23 %
Round 1
- 19
Round 2
Eliminated
Round 1 Total
Round 1 Total
Candidate
Round 1 Total
Round 1
80
Round 1
100 %
Round 1
Round 2 Total
Round 2
61
Round 2
100 %
Candidate
Round 1
Round 2
Votes
%
Transfer
Votes
%
Jeff Wood
32
40 %
+ 0
32
52 %
Spike Cohen
29
36 %
+ 0
29
47 %
NOTA
19
23 %
- 19
Eliminated
Round 1 Total
80
100 %
Round 2 Total
61
100 %
· General election › Final predictions
Lean D
Lean D
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean D
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
Likely D
Likely D
Source
Niskanen
Ranking
Likely D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
CNN
Ranking
Lean D
Likely D
Likely D
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Lean D
Likely D
Likely D
Source
270towin
Ranking
Likely D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
NPR
Ranking
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Lean D
Solid D
Solid D
Source
FiveThirtyEight
Ranking
Solid D
Source
Ranking
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Inside Elections
Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Politico
Lean D
RCP
Tossup
Niskanen
Likely D
CNN
Lean D
The Economist
Likely D
CBS News
Lean D
270towin
Likely D
ABC News
Lean D
NPR
Lean D
NBC News
Lean D
FiveThirtyEight
Solid D

References

  1. Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose founder, Gabby Giffords, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  3. Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  5. Candidate withdrew during the first days of absentee voting.
  6. Candidate withdrew after in-person absentee voting started on January 17, 2020.
  7. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  9. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  10. "Someone else" with 1%
  11. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  15. West (B) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. "Another Third Party Candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  20. "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A), "Other" and West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) with 0%; Kennedy (SWP) and La Riva (PSOL) with n
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