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2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2020 United States presidential election in Kentucky was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Kentucky has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump won Kentucky by a 25 % margin in this election, down from his margin of 29 % in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. Kentucky has not supported a Democratic nominee since it narrowly supported fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump's overhaul of Obama-era coal emissions standards helped him win coal-industry households, once again sweeping the historically-Democratic Eastern Kentucky counties. Trump also carried 83% of White evangelical/born-again Christians, per exit polls by the Associated Press. In addition to Trump's victory in the Commonwealth, Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Elliott County since the county was founded in 1869, as well as only the second Democrat to ever lose Elliott County in a presidential election, preceded only by Hillary Clinton four years earlier. This also marks the second consecutive election in which no county in the Eastern Kentucky Coalfield voted Democratic. Furthermore, this is the first time since 1948 that Fayette County, the second-most populous county in the state and home to the city of Lexington, voted to the left of Jefferson County, the most populous county in the state and home to the city of Louisville, in a presidential election.

Infobox

Turnout
59 %
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
Mike Pence
Electoral vote
8
Popular vote
1,326,646
Percentage
62 %

Tables

2020 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
365,284
%
67
Delegates
52
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Votes
58,364
%
10
Delegates
2
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Candidate
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Votes
65,055
%
12
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Candidate
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
Votes
15,300
%
2
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Candidate
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
Votes
9,127
%
1
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Candidate
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Votes
7,267
%
1
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
Votes
5,859
%
1
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Candidate
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
Votes
5,296
%
0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Candidate
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
Votes
2,656
%
0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Candidate
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Votes
2,514
%
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Candidate
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Votes
1,183
%
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
537,905
%
100%
Delegates
54
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
365,284
67
52
Uncommitted
58,364
10
2
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
65,055
12
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)
15,300
2
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)
9,127
1
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
7,267
1
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)
5,859
1
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)
5,296
0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)
2,656
0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
2,514
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
1,183
0
Total
537,905
100%
54
· General election › Predictions
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 10, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 4, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe R
As of
July 14, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 8, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Safe R
As of
August 3, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Niskanen
Ranking
Safe R
As of
July 26, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Safe R
As of
August 3, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 2, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Likely R
As of
August 16, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
270towin
Ranking
Safe R
As of
August 2, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Safe R
As of
July 31, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
NPR
Ranking
Likely R
As of
August 3, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Safe R
As of
August 6, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
538
Ranking
Safe R
As of
September 9, 2020
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
September 10, 2020
Inside Elections
Safe R
September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
July 14, 2020
Politico
Safe R
September 8, 2020
RCP
Safe R
August 3, 2020
Niskanen
Safe R
July 26, 2020
CNN
Safe R
August 3, 2020
The Economist
Safe R
September 2, 2020
CBS News
Likely R
August 16, 2020
270towin
Safe R
August 2, 2020
ABC News
Safe R
July 31, 2020
NPR
Likely R
August 3, 2020
NBC News
Safe R
August 6, 2020
538
Safe R
September 9, 2020
· General election › Polling › Aggregate polls
270 to Win
270 to Win
Source of poll aggregation
270 to Win
Dates administered
October 17–20, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
40 %
Donald Trump Republican
57 %
Other/ Undecided
3 %
Margin
Trump +17
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
39 %
Donald Trump Republican
55 %
Other/ Undecided
4 %
Margin
Trump +15
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
40 %
Dates updated
56 %
Joe Biden Democratic
3 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +16
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
270 to Win
October 17–20, 2020
November 3, 2020
40 %
57 %
3 %
Trump +17
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
39 %
55 %
4 %
Trump +15
Average
40 %
56 %
3 %
Trump +16
· General election › Polling › Polls
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
Sample size
2,009 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
59%
Joe Biden Democratic
40%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020
Sample size
383 (LV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
42%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Other
Undecided
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Poll source
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Date(s) administered
Oct 12–28, 2020
Sample size
250 (RV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–28, 2020
Sample size
3,621 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Joe Biden Democratic
42%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
Mason-Dixon
Mason-Dixon
Poll source
Mason-Dixon
Date(s) administered
Oct 12–15, 2020
Sample size
625 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
56%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
1%
Undecided
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Sep 1–30, 2020
Sample size
1,479 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
59%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
1%
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
Sep 14–19, 2020
Sample size
807 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
35%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Other
1%
Undecided
8%
56%
56%
Poll source
56%
Date(s) administered
38%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
6%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
Sep 10–14, 2020
Sample size
1,164 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
58%
Joe Biden Democratic
38%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
1%
Undecided
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Aug 1–31, 2020
Sample size
1,231 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
60%
Joe Biden Democratic
38%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
2%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020
Sample size
909 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
41%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
4%
Undecided
5%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020
Sample size
793 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
59%
Joe Biden Democratic
35%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Jul 1–31, 2020
Sample size
1,709 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
62%
Joe Biden Democratic
37%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
1%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Poll source
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Date(s) administered
Jul 25–29, 2020
Sample size
3,020 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project
Poll source
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project
Date(s) administered
Jul 11–16, 2020
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
60%
Joe Biden Democratic
34%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
6%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Date(s) administered
Jul 7–12, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Joe Biden Democratic
41%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Jun 8–30, 2020
Sample size
596 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
60%
Joe Biden Democratic
38%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Date(s) administered
Jun 2020
Sample size
– (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Poll source
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
Jun 13–15, 2020
Sample size
898 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Joe Biden Democratic
37%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
5%
Undecided
1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Date(s) administered
May 2020
Sample size
– (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Joe Biden Democratic
36%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
RMG Research/U . Term Limits
RMG Research/U . Term Limits
Poll source
RMG Research/U . Term Limits
Date(s) administered
May 21–24, 2020
Sample size
500 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Joe Biden Democratic
36%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
6%
Undecided
5%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
May 14–15, 2020
Sample size
1,104 (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
5%
Undecided
2%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Poll source
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Date(s) administered
Apr 7–12, 2020
Sample size
4,000 (RV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
34%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP
Fabrizio Ward/AARP
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward/AARP
Date(s) administered
Jul 29–31, 2019
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Joe Biden Democratic
41%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
4%
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
Jun 11–12, 2019
Sample size
741 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Joe Biden Democratic
37%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
6%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
2,009 (LV)
± 3%
59%
40%
-
Swayable
Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020
383 (LV)
± 7 %
55%
42%
4%
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Oct 12–28, 2020
250 (RV)
52%
39%
9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 1–28, 2020
3,621 (LV)
56%
42%
Mason-Dixon
Oct 12–15, 2020
625 (LV)
± 4%
56%
39%
-
1%
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Sep 1–30, 2020
1,479 (LV)
59%
39%
-
1%
Data for Progress (D)
Sep 14–19, 2020
807 (LV)
± 3 %
55%
35%
1%
1%
8%
56%
38%
-
6%
Quinnipiac University
Sep 10–14, 2020
1,164 (LV)
± 2 %
58%
38%
-
1%
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Aug 1–31, 2020
1,231 (LV)
60%
38%
-
2%
Quinnipiac University
Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020
909 (RV)
± 3 %
50%
41%
-
4%
5%
Morning Consult
Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020
793 (LV)
± 3 %
59%
35%
-
2%
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jul 1–31, 2020
1,709 (LV)
62%
37%
-
1%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Jul 25–29, 2020
3,020 (RV)
± 2 %
52%
45%
-
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project
Jul 11–16, 2020
600 (LV)
± 3 %
60%
34%
-
6%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Jul 7–12, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
41%
-
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jun 8–30, 2020
596 (LV)
60%
38%
-
2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
Jun 2020
– (V)
54%
39%
-
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Jun 13–15, 2020
898 (RV)
± 3 %
57%
37%
-
5%
1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Amy McGrath
May 2020
– (V)
57%
36%
-
RMG Research/U . Term Limits
May 21–24, 2020
500 (RV)
± 4 %
53%
36%
-
6%
5%
Public Policy Polling
May 14–15, 2020
1,104 (V)
55%
39%
-
5%
2%
Bluegrass Data/Ditch Mitch Fund
Apr 7–12, 2020
4,000 (RV)
55%
34%
-
Fabrizio Ward/AARP
Jul 29–31, 2019
600 (LV)
± 4 %
53%
41%
-
4%
Gravis Marketing
Jun 11–12, 2019
741 (LV)
± 3 %
57%
37%
-
6%
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
Jun 11–12, 2019
Sample size
741 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump (R)
60%
Pete Buttigieg (D)
28%
Undecided
12%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump (R)
Pete Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
Jun 11–12, 2019
741 (LV)
± 3 %
60%
28%
12%

References

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. Standard VI response
  5. Hawkins (G) with 1%
  6. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  7. "Someone else" with 1%
  8. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  9. "Someone else" with 2%
  10. Not yet released
  11. "Someone else" with 5%
  12. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  13. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  14. This poll's sponsor supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  15. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  16. Poll sponsored by Amy McGrath's campaign
  17. U . Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  18. This poll's sponsor supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  19. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-kentucky.html
  20. The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html
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