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2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump won the state 53 % to Biden's 44 %. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9 %, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state, Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8 % even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2 %, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016. This marked the first time since 2000 that the state voted for the national loser, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of the popular and electoral vote. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha metropolitan area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back-to-back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Biden also became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is also the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin. Iowa is one of only three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and thrice for Trump, the other two being Florida and Ohio.

Infobox

Turnout
75 % (3 pp)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
Mike Pence
Electoral vote
6
Popular vote
897,672
Percentage
53 %

Tables

2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Candidate
Donald Trump (incumbent)
Votes
31,421
%
97
Estimated delegates
39
Bill Weld
Bill Weld
Candidate
Bill Weld
Votes
425
%
1
Estimated delegates
1
Joe Walsh
Joe Walsh
Candidate
Joe Walsh
Votes
348
%
1
Estimated delegates
0
Other
Other
Candidate
Other
Votes
151
%
0
Estimated delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
32,345
%
100%
Estimated delegates
40
Candidate
Votes
%
Estimated delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)
31,421
97
39
Bill Weld
425
1
1
Joe Walsh
348
1
0
Other
151
0
0
Total
32,345
100%
40
2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
Votes
Votes
Candidate
Votes
Initial alignment
%
Initial alignment
Votes
Final alignment
%
Final alignment
Number
State delegate equivalents
%
Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg
Candidate
Pete Buttigieg
Initial alignment
37,572
Initial alignment
21
Final alignment
43,209
Final alignment
25
State delegate equivalents
562
State delegate equivalents
26
Pledged national convention delegates
14
Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders
Candidate
Bernie Sanders
Initial alignment
43,581
Initial alignment
24
Final alignment
45,652
Final alignment
26
State delegate equivalents
562
State delegate equivalents
26
Pledged national convention delegates
12
Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren
Candidate
Elizabeth Warren
Initial alignment
32,589
Initial alignment
18
Final alignment
34,909
Final alignment
20
State delegate equivalents
388
State delegate equivalents
18
Pledged national convention delegates
8
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Initial alignment
26,291
Initial alignment
14
Final alignment
23,605
Final alignment
13
State delegate equivalents
340
State delegate equivalents
15
Pledged national convention delegates
6
Amy Klobuchar
Amy Klobuchar
Candidate
Amy Klobuchar
Initial alignment
22,454
Initial alignment
12
Final alignment
21,100
Final alignment
12
State delegate equivalents
263
State delegate equivalents
12
Pledged national convention delegates
1
Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang
Candidate
Andrew Yang
Initial alignment
8,914
Initial alignment
5
Final alignment
1,758
Final alignment
1
State delegate equivalents
21
State delegate equivalents
1
Tom Steyer
Tom Steyer
Candidate
Tom Steyer
Initial alignment
3,061
Initial alignment
1
Final alignment
413
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
6
State delegate equivalents
0
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)
Candidate
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)
Initial alignment
212
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
16
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard
Initial alignment
341
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
16
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
Michael Bennet
Michael Bennet
Candidate
Michael Bennet
Initial alignment
164
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
4
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
Deval Patrick
Deval Patrick
Candidate
Deval Patrick
Initial alignment
9
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
0
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
John Delaney (withdrawn)
John Delaney (withdrawn)
Candidate
John Delaney (withdrawn)
Initial alignment
0
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
0
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
Other
Other
Candidate
Other
Initial alignment
155
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
198
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
0
State delegate equivalents
0
Uncommitted
Uncommitted
Candidate
Uncommitted
Initial alignment
1,009
Initial alignment
0
Final alignment
1,420
Final alignment
0
State delegate equivalents
3
State delegate equivalents
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Initial alignment
176,352
Initial alignment
100%
Final alignment
172,300
Final alignment
100%
State delegate equivalents
2,150
State delegate equivalents
100%
Pledged national convention delegates
41
Candidate
Initial alignment
Final alignment
State delegate equivalents
Pledged national convention delegates
Votes
%
Votes
%
Number
%
Pete Buttigieg
37,572
21
43,209
25
562
26
14
Bernie Sanders
43,581
24
45,652
26
562
26
12
Elizabeth Warren
32,589
18
34,909
20
388
18
8
Joe Biden
26,291
14
23,605
13
340
15
6
Amy Klobuchar
22,454
12
21,100
12
263
12
1
Andrew Yang
8,914
5
1,758
1
21
1
Tom Steyer
3,061
1
413
0
6
0
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)
212
0
16
0
0
0
Tulsi Gabbard
341
0
16
0
0
0
Michael Bennet
164
0
4
0
0
0
Deval Patrick
9
0
0
0
0
0
John Delaney (withdrawn)
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other
155
0
198
0
0
0
Uncommitted
1,009
0
1,420
0
3
0
Total
176,352
100%
172,300
100%
2,150
100%
41
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020 · Caucuses › Libertarian caucuses
Jacob Hornberger
Jacob Hornberger
Candidate
Jacob Hornberger
Votes
133
Percentage
47 %
Lincoln Chafee
Lincoln Chafee
Candidate
Lincoln Chafee
Votes
36
Percentage
12 %
Jo Jorgensen
Jo Jorgensen
Candidate
Jo Jorgensen
Votes
18
Percentage
6 %
Adam Kokesh
Adam Kokesh
Candidate
Adam Kokesh
Votes
17
Percentage
6 %
Dan Behrman
Dan Behrman
Candidate
Dan Behrman
Votes
14
Percentage
4 %
John McAfee
John McAfee
Candidate
John McAfee
Votes
10
Percentage
3 %
Vermin Supreme
Vermin Supreme
Candidate
Vermin Supreme
Votes
9
Percentage
3 %
Other (write-in)
Other (write-in)
Candidate
Other (write-in)
Votes
8
Percentage
2 %
None of the above
None of the above
Candidate
None of the above
Votes
8
Percentage
2 %
Sam Robb
Sam Robb
Candidate
Sam Robb
Votes
7
Percentage
2 %
Max Abramson
Max Abramson
Candidate
Max Abramson
Votes
6
Percentage
2 %
Mark Whitney
Mark Whitney
Candidate
Mark Whitney
Votes
4
Percentage
1 %
Arvin Vohra
Arvin Vohra
Candidate
Arvin Vohra
Votes
3
Percentage
1 %
Ken Armstrong
Ken Armstrong
Candidate
Ken Armstrong
Votes
2
Percentage
0 %
Souraya Faas
Souraya Faas
Candidate
Souraya Faas
Votes
2
Percentage
0 %
Benjamin Leder
Benjamin Leder
Candidate
Benjamin Leder
Votes
1
Percentage
0 %
John Monds
John Monds
Candidate
John Monds
Votes
1
Percentage
0 %
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
281
Percentage
100%
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Jacob Hornberger
133
47 %
Lincoln Chafee
36
12 %
Jo Jorgensen
18
6 %
Adam Kokesh
17
6 %
Dan Behrman
14
4 %
John McAfee
10
3 %
Vermin Supreme
9
3 %
Other (write-in)
8
2 %
None of the above
8
2 %
Sam Robb
7
2 %
Max Abramson
6
2 %
Mark Whitney
4
1 %
Arvin Vohra
3
1 %
Ken Armstrong
2
0 %
Souraya Faas
2
0 %
Benjamin Leder
1
0 %
John Monds
1
0 %
Total
281
100%
· General election › Final predictions
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tossup
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean R
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Politico
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Niskanen
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CNN
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
270towin
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NPR
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Tossup
Lean R
Lean R
Source
538
Ranking
Lean R
Source
Ranking
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Politico
Tossup
RCP
Tossup
Niskanen
Tossup
CNN
Tossup
The Economist
Tossup
CBS News
Tossup
270towin
Tossup
ABC News
Tossup
NPR
Tossup
NBC News
Tossup
538
Lean R
· General election › Polling
270 to Win
270 to Win
Source of poll aggregation
270 to Win
Dates administered
October 31 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other/ Undecided
6 %
Margin
Trump +1
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation
Real Clear Politics
Dates administered
October 23 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
45 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other/ Undecided
6 %
Margin
Trump +2
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
46 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other/ Undecided
6 %
Margin
Trump +1
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
46 %
Dates updated
47 %
Joe Biden Democratic
6 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +1
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
270 to Win
October 31 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
46 %
47 %
6 %
Trump +1
Real Clear Politics
October 23 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
45 %
47 %
6 %
Trump +2
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
46 %
47 %
6 %
Trump +1
Average
46 %
47 %
6 %
Trump +1

References

  1. Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable
  2. The official results included four decimal digits.
  3. In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are
  4. Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden
  5. Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden a
  6. Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden
  7. 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the
  8. Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not t
  9. Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.
  10. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  12. "Someone else" with 2%
  13. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  14. "Don't recall" with 2%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%
  16. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  17. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  18. "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  19. Includes "Do not remember"
  20. "Someone else" with 1%
Image
Source:
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