Topzle Topzle

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot. This is the closest presidential election in Arizona history, surpassing the previous closest of 1964, in which Barry Goldwater won the state by just under a single percentage point. Trump carried Arizona in 2016 by 3 %, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. The state's bitterly competitive nature was attributed to the rapid growth of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61 % of the state's population. Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996, and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County since Truman, with a margin of 2 %, or 45,109 votes. High turnout among Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters was also seen as vital. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up. Arizona was the second-closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia, marking the first time since 1948 that the Democratic nominee won both Sun Belt states in the same presidential election (Clinton won each state in separate elections). This was also the first time since 1932 that a non-incumbent Democrat carried Arizona in a presidential election, or that an incumbent Republican lost the state. Arizona weighed in as 4 percentage points more Republican than the nation in 2020. Arizona is also one of only two states that backed Biden that didn't back Barack Obama in either of his runs for president in 2008 and 2012, the other being Georgia. After the election, the Republican-majority Arizona Senate launched a Maricopa County-based publicly-funded investigation into the election fraud alleged by Trump and his supporters. The controversial audit, completed in September 2021, found no evidence to support claims of significant election irregularities. Additionally, the audit found a 360 vote larger margin for Biden than what the earlier, certified results had given. On April 24, 2024, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced that a grand jury has indicted eleven fake electors and seven Trump allies, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, for their roles in attempting to overturn the results for Trump.

Infobox

Turnout
79 % (of registered voters)
Nominee
Joe Biden
Party
Democratic
Home state
Delaware
Running mate
Kamala Harris
Electoral vote
11
Popular vote
1,672,143
Percentage
49 %

Tables

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary · Primary elections › Democratic primary
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
268,029
%
43 %
Delegates
38
Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders
Candidate
Bernie Sanders
Votes
200,456
%
32 %
Delegates
29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)
Candidate
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)
Votes
35,537
%
5 %
Delegates
0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)
Candidate
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)
Votes
24,868
%
4 %
Delegates
0
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard
Candidate
Tulsi Gabbard
Votes
3,014
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Candidate
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Votes
1,921
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Candidate
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
Votes
754
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Candidate
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
Votes
668
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Roque De La Fuente III
Roque De La Fuente III
Candidate
Roque De La Fuente III
Votes
628
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Candidate
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Votes
242
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Henry Hewes
Henry Hewes
Candidate
Henry Hewes
Votes
208
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Michael A. Ellinger
Michael A. Ellinger
Candidate
Michael A. Ellinger
Votes
184
%
0 %
Delegates
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
536,509
%
86 %
Delegates
67
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
268,029
43 %
38
Bernie Sanders
200,456
32 %
29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn†)
35,537
5 %
0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)
24,868
4 %
0
Tulsi Gabbard
3,014
0 %
0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
1,921
0 %
0
Julian Castro (withdrawn)
754
0 %
0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)
668
0 %
0
Roque De La Fuente III
628
0 %
0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
242
0 %
0
Henry Hewes
208
0 %
0
Michael A. Ellinger
184
0 %
0
Total
536,509
86 %
67
· General election › Final predictions
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Tilt D (flip)
Tilt D (flip)
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tilt D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Politico
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CNN
Ranking
Tossup
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
270towin
Ranking
Tossup
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NPR
Ranking
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Tossup
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
538
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
Source
Ranking
The Cook Political Report
Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections
Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D (flip)
Politico
Tossup
RCP
Tossup
CNN
Tossup
The Economist
Lean D (flip)
CBS News
Tossup
270towin
Tossup
ABC News
Lean D (flip)
NPR
Tossup
NBC News
Tossup
538
Lean D (flip)
· General election › Polling
270 to Win
270 to Win
Source of poll aggregation
270 to Win
Dates administered
October 22 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
45 %
Other/ Undecided
6 %
Margin
Biden +2
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation
Real Clear Politics
Dates administered
October 25 – November 1, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
47 %
Donald Trump Republican
47 %
Other/ Undecided
5 %
Margin
Biden +0
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
48 %
Donald Trump Republican
46 %
Other/ Undecided
5 %
Margin
Biden +2
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
48 %
Dates updated
46 %
Joe Biden Democratic
5 %
Donald Trump Republican
Biden +1
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
270 to Win
October 22 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
48 %
45 %
6 %
Biden +2
Real Clear Politics
October 25 – November 1, 2020
November 3, 2020
47 %
47 %
5 %
Biden +0
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
48 %
46 %
5 %
Biden +2
Average
48 %
46 %
5 %
Biden +1
· General election › Polling
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 2
Sample size
610 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
2%
Undecided
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
1%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 20 – Nov 2
Sample size
4,278 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Sample size
409 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
1%
Marist College/NBC
Marist College/NBC
Poll source
Marist College/NBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 29 – Nov 1
Sample size
717 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
1%
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 1
Sample size
360 (LV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
Oct 27 – Nov 1
Sample size
1,195 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
1%
Other
0%
Undecided
AtlasIntel
AtlasIntel
Poll source
AtlasIntel
Date(s) administered
Oct 30–31
Sample size
641 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
50 %
Joe Biden Democratic
48 %
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1 %
Undecided
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
Oct 29–31
Sample size
732 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
6%
Undecided
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 22–31
Sample size
1,059 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
Oct 28–30
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45 %
Joe Biden Democratic
45 %
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
6%
Undecided
5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–30
Sample size
1,253 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
5%
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll
Poll source
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll
Date(s) administered
Oct 25–30
Sample size
910 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Undecided
4%
CNN/SSRS
CNN/SSRS
Poll source
CNN/SSRS
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–30
Sample size
892 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Poll source
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Date(s) administered
Oct 27–29
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–29
Sample size
889 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
1%
Undecided
2%
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–28
Sample size
704 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
8%
Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar Group
Poll source
Trafalgar Group
Date(s) administered
Oct 25–28
Sample size
1,002 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
46 %
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2 %
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1 %
Undecided
0 %
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–28
Sample size
5,687 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 21–27
Sample size
714 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
3%
Undecided
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
48%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
Oct 23–26
Sample size
304 (LV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Justice Collaborative Project
Justice Collaborative Project
Poll source
Justice Collaborative Project
Date(s) administered
Oct 22–25
Sample size
874 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
5%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
Oct 22–25
Sample size
716 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
1%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Poll source
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Date(s) administered
Oct 17–25
Sample size
725 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
3%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Poll source
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Date(s) administered
Oct 21–24
Sample size
729 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
52%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
1%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
Poll source
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
Date(s) administered
Oct 15–24
Sample size
700 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness
Poll source
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness
Date(s) administered
Oct 19–22
Sample size
504 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
1%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 14–21
Sample size
658 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 11–20
Sample size
1,066 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Poll source
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Date(s) administered
Oct 18–19
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
3%
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 16–19
Sample size
232 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Poll source
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Date(s) administered
Oct 14–19
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
5%
44%
44%
Poll source
44%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
5%
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
45%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
5%
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
Oct 16–18
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
5%
Undecided
2%
YouGov/CBS
YouGov/CBS
Poll source
YouGov/CBS
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–16
Sample size
1,074 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
3%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Oct 7–14
Sample size
667 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
2%
Undecided
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
2%
Joe Biden Democratic
3%
Monmouth University
Monmouth University
Poll source
Monmouth University
Date(s) administered
Oct 11–13
Sample size
502 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
4%
502 (LV)
502 (LV)
Poll source
502 (LV)
Date(s) administered
44%
Sample size
51%
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
-
Joe Biden Democratic
2%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
49%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
1%
Joe Biden Democratic
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 10–13
Sample size
750 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
Undecided
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
Oct 2–11
Sample size
1,144 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 9–10
Sample size
720 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
Undecided
Trafalgar Group
Trafalgar Group
Poll source
Trafalgar Group
Date(s) administered
Oct 6–8
Sample size
1,087 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
44%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
5%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
Oct 4–8
Sample size
608 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
0%
Undecided
3%
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
0%
Joe Biden Democratic
3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Oct 4–7
Sample size
727 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
1%
Other
1%
Undecided
6%
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Sep 29 – Oct 7
Sample size
633 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform
Poll source
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform
Date(s) administered
Sep 28 – Oct 6
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
5%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum
Basswood Research/American Action Forum
Poll source
Basswood Research/American Action Forum
Date(s) administered
Oct 3–5
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
2%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
3%
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
Oct 3–5
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
4%
HighGround Inc.
HighGround Inc.
Poll source
HighGround Inc.
Date(s) administered
Sep 28 – Oct 5
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
4%
Undecided
5%
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Oct 2–4
Sample size
296 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–3
Sample size
655 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
41%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
Howie Hawkins Green
Other
1%
Undecided
6%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Poll source
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–3
Sample size
604 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
3%
Undecided
1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Poll source
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
Date(s) administered
Sep 23 – Oct 2
Sample size
1,045 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
10%
Undecided
Suffolk University
Suffolk University
Poll source
Suffolk University
Date(s) administered
Sep 26–30
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Sep 1–30
Sample size
7,100 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
51%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
2%
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona
Poll source
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona
Date(s) administered
Sep 24–29
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness
Poll source
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness
Date(s) administered
Sep 25–28
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
Sep 23–28
Sample size
808 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
Undecided
4%
46%
46%
Poll source
46%
Date(s) administered
50%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Sep 23–26
Sample size
871 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
1%
Other
1%
Undecided
6%
Data For Progress
Data For Progress
Poll source
Data For Progress
Date(s) administered
Sep 15–22
Sample size
481 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
10%
Change Research/CNBC
Change Research/CNBC
Poll source
Change Research/CNBC
Date(s) administered
Sep 18–20
Sample size
262 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
ABC/The Washington Post
ABC/The Washington Post
Poll source
ABC/The Washington Post
Date(s) administered
Sep 15–20
Sample size
579 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
1%
Data Orbital
Data Orbital
Poll source
Data Orbital
Date(s) administered
Sep 14–17
Sample size
550 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll source
Ipsos/Reuters
Date(s) administered
Sep 11–17
Sample size
565 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
2%
Undecided
5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Poll source
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Date(s) administered
Sep 12–16
Sample size
855 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
42%
Joe Biden Democratic
47%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
1%
Howie Hawkins Green
0%
Other
1%
Undecided
8%
Monmouth University
Monmouth University
Poll source
Monmouth University
Date(s) administered
Sep 11–15
Sample size
420 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
3%
420 (LV)
420 (LV)
Poll source
420 (LV)
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
48%
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
-
Joe Biden Democratic
3%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
3%
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
47%
Sample size
-
Margin of error
-
Donald Trump Republican
3%
Joe Biden Democratic
3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Sep 10–15
Sample size
653 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
40%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
4%
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
1%
Undecided
6%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Poll source
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Date(s) administered
Sep 10–13
Sample size
679 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
4%
Undecided
2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
Poll source
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
Date(s) administered
Aug 29 – Sep 13
Sample size
1,298 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Donald Trump Republican
40%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Howie Hawkins Green
-
Other
4%
Undecided
11%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Howie Hawkins Green
Other
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 27 – Nov 2
610 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
50%
1%
0%
2%
47%
49%
-
-
2%
1%
48%
50%
-
-
2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 20 – Nov 2
4,278 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
52%
-
-
Change Research/CNBC
Oct 29 – Nov 1
409 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
50%
2%
-
1%
Marist College/NBC
Oct 29 – Nov 1
717 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
48%
-
-
3%
1%
Swayable
Oct 27 – Nov 1
360 (LV)
± 7 %
46%
51%
4%
-
Data for Progress
Oct 27 – Nov 1
1,195 (LV)
± 2 %
47%
50%
2%
1%
0%
AtlasIntel
Oct 30–31
641 (LV)
± 4%
50 %
48 %
-
-
1 %
Emerson College
Oct 29–31
732 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
48%
-
-
6%
Morning Consult
Oct 22–31
1,059 (LV)
± 3%
46%
48%
-
-
Data Orbital
Oct 28–30
550 (LV)
± 4 %
45 %
45 %
3%
-
6%
5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Oct 26–30
1,253 (LV)
± 3%
43%
49%
3%
-
1%
5%
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll
Oct 25–30
910 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
45%
3%
-
4%
CNN/SSRS
Oct 23–30
892 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
50%
3%
-
1%
1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Oct 27–29
800 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
45%
-
-
3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Oct 26–29
889 (LV)
46%
50%
2%
0%
1%
2%
Gravis Marketing
Oct 26–28
704 (LV)
± 3 %
44%
48%
-
-
8%
Trafalgar Group
Oct 25–28
1,002 (LV)
± 3%
49%
46 %
2 %
-
1 %
0 %
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 1–28
5,687 (LV)
46%
52%
-
-
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 21–27
714 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
47%
2%
0%
3%
46%
48%
-
-
3%
2%
Swayable
Oct 23–26
304 (LV)
± 7 %
44%
52%
3%
-
Justice Collaborative Project
Oct 22–25
874 (LV)
± 3 %
43%
49%
-
-
5%
OH Predictive Insights
Oct 22–25
716 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
49%
3%
-
1%
1%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Oct 17–25
725 (RV)
± 3 %
45%
50%
-
-
2%
3%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)
Oct 21–24
729 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
52%
-
-
2%
1%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune
Oct 15–24
700 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
50%
-
-
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness
Oct 19–22
504 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
46%
4%
-
2%
1%
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 14–21
658 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
50%
1%
-
2%
46%
49%
-
-
3%
2%
Morning Consult
Oct 11–20
1,066 (LV)
± 3%
48%
47%
-
-
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
Oct 18–19
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
48%
-
-
3%
3%
Change Research/CNBC
Oct 16–19
232 (LV)
45%
51%
-
-
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ
Oct 14–19
800 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
47%
-
-
3%
5%
44%
49%
-
-
3%
5%
47%
45%
-
-
3%
5%
Data Orbital
Oct 16–18
550 (LV)
± 4 %
42%
47%
3%
-
5%
2%
YouGov/CBS
Oct 13–16
1,074 (LV)
± 4 %
45%
49%
-
-
3%
3%
Ipsos/Reuters
Oct 7–14
667 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
49%
1%
0%
2%
46%
50%
-
-
2%
3%
Monmouth University
Oct 11–13
502 (RV)
± 4 %
44%
50%
2%
-
1%
4%
502 (LV)
44%
51%
-
-
2%
47%
49%
-
-
1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Oct 10–13
750 (LV)
45%
48%
1%
0%
Morning Consult
Oct 2–11
1,144 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
49%
-
-
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Oct 9–10
720 (LV)
46%
48%
1%
0%
Trafalgar Group
Oct 6–8
1,087 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
44%
2%
-
2%
5%
OH Predictive Insights
Oct 4–8
608 (LV)
± 4 %
45%
49%
4%
-
0%
3%
· General election › Polling
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
Dec 3–4
Sample size
628 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
44%
Other
0%
Undecided
10%
Emerson College
Emerson College
Poll source
Emerson College
Date(s) administered
Oct 25–28
Sample size
901 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
50%
Other
Undecided
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Oct 13–23
Sample size
652 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Other
Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International
Bendixen & Amandi International
Poll source
Bendixen & Amandi International
Date(s) administered
Sep 9–12
Sample size
520 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
42%
Other
12%
Undecided
3%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
Aug 13–14
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
43%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Other
Undecided
12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC
Fabrizio Ward LLC
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward LLC
Date(s) administered
Jul 29–31
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Other
Undecided
4%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
May 1–2
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
44%
Joe Biden Democratic
49%
Other
Undecided
7%
OH Predictive Insights
OH Predictive Insights
Poll source
OH Predictive Insights
Date(s) administered
Feb 12–13
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Donald Trump Republican
46%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Other
Undecided
7%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Other
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights
Dec 3–4
628 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
44%
0%
10%
Emerson College
Oct 25–28
901 (RV)
± 3 %
50%
50%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Oct 13–23
652 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
49%
Bendixen & Amandi International
Sep 9–12
520 (RV)
± 4 %
43%
42%
12%
3%
OH Predictive Insights
Aug 13–14
600 (LV)
± 4 %
43%
45%
12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC
Jul 29–31
600 (LV)
± 4 %
50%
45%
4%
OH Predictive Insights
May 1–2
600 (LV)
± 4 %
44%
49%
7%
OH Predictive Insights
Feb 12–13
600 (LV)
± 4 %
46%
46%
7%

References

  1. The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. This poll's sponsor exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. The American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates
  5. Smart and Safe Arizona endorsed Proposition 207 prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  7. Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  10. Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  11. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  12. Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  13. Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates
  14. Arizona was John McCain's home state.
  15. CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  16. NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  17. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  19. Standard VI response
  20. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
Image
Source:
Tip: Wheel or +/− to zoom, drag to pan, Esc to close.