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2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States presidential election in Alaska

The 2020 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, and Alliance Party nominees were also on the ballot, as was an Independent candidate. Prior to the election, 13 of 14 news organizations predicted that Alaska would be a state that Trump would win, or otherwise a red state. Since it was admitted into the Union in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every single election except 1964 in Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide landslide, when he carried it with 65 % of the vote. However, some analysts believed Alaska could be competitive based on polling. Despite not being a swing state, Alaska was one of the last states to be called; the state did not start counting absentee ballots or early votes that were cast after October 29 until November 10. Mail-in votes only had to be received by November 13 for them to be counted, and counting had to be completed by November 18. As a result, Alaska was called for Trump on November 11. He won the state by 10 %, the closest margin in the state since 1992. Biden received the highest percentage of the vote for a Democrat in the state since 1964. It was also the second time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote in the state since 1968, the first being Barack Obama in 2012. Alaska shifted 4 % to the Democratic nominee compared to the 2016 election. The state ultimately weighed in as 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average in 2020. Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Anchorage since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first Democrat to receive a majority in Haines Borough since 1964.

Infobox

Turnout
60 % ( 0 pp)
Nominee
Donald Trump
Party
Republican
Home state
Florida
Running mate
Mike Pence
Electoral vote
3
Popular vote
189,951
Percentage
52 %

Tables

2020 Alaska Democratic presidential primary final results
Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Candidate
Joe Biden
Votes
10,834
%
54
Delegates
8
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Candidate
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
Votes
8,755
%
44
Delegates
7
Inactive votes
Inactive votes
Candidate
Inactive votes
Votes
170
%
0
Total
Total
Candidate
Total
Votes
19,759
%
100%
Delegates
15
Candidate
Votes
%
Delegates
Joe Biden
10,834
54
8
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)
8,755
44
7
Inactive votes
170
0
Total
19,759
100%
15
· General election › Final predictions
Likely R
Likely R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely R
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Lean R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely R
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Likely R
Tossup
Tossup
Source
Niskanen
Ranking
Tossup
Solid R
Solid R
Source
CNN
Ranking
Solid R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
The Economist
Ranking
Likely R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
CBS News
Ranking
Likely R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
270towin
Ranking
Likely R
Lean R
Lean R
Source
ABC News
Ranking
Lean R
Lean R
Lean R
Source
NPR
Ranking
Lean R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
NBC News
Ranking
Likely R
Likely R
Likely R
Source
538
Ranking
Likely R
Source
Ranking
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Inside Elections
Lean R
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Politico
Lean R
RCP
Likely R
Niskanen
Tossup
CNN
Solid R
The Economist
Likely R
CBS News
Likely R
270towin
Likely R
ABC News
Lean R
NPR
Lean R
NBC News
Likely R
538
Likely R
· General election › Polling
270 to Win
270 to Win
Source of poll aggregation
270 to Win
Dates administered
October 6 – November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
43 %
Donald Trump Republican
49 %
Other/ Undecided
6 %
Margin
Trump +5
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight
Source of poll aggregation
FiveThirtyEight
Dates administered
until November 2, 2020
Dates updated
November 3, 2020
Joe Biden Democratic
43 %
Donald Trump Republican
51 %
Other/ Undecided
5 %
Margin
Trump +7
Average
Average
Source of poll aggregation
Average
Dates administered
43 %
Dates updated
50 %
Joe Biden Democratic
6 %
Donald Trump Republican
Trump +6
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Joe Biden Democratic
Donald Trump Republican
Other/ Undecided
Margin
270 to Win
October 6 – November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
43 %
49 %
6 %
Trump +5
FiveThirtyEight
until November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
43 %
51 %
5 %
Trump +7
Average
43 %
50 %
6 %
Trump +6
· General election › Polling
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
Sample size
634 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5%
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
Oct 26–28, 2020
Sample size
770 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Joe Biden Democratic
43%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Oct 1–28, 2020
Sample size
1,147 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
54%
Joe Biden Democratic
44%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care
Poll source
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care
Date(s) administered
Oct 19–20, 2020
Sample size
800 (V)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
Undecided
5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
Oct 9–14, 2020
Sample size
423 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
39%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
8%
Other
2%
Undecided
6%
Patinkin Research Strategies
Patinkin Research Strategies
Poll source
Patinkin Research Strategies
Date(s) administered
Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
3%
Undecided
2%
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020
Sample size
696 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Sep 1–30, 2020
Sample size
563 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
53%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
2%
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska
Poll source
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska
Date(s) administered
Sep 20–23, 2020
Sample size
602 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Donald Trump Republican
47%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Aug 1–31, 2020
Sample size
472 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
57%
Joe Biden Democratic
42%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Jul 1–31, 2020
Sample size
412 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
55%
Joe Biden Democratic
43%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
2%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
Jul 23–24, 2020
Sample size
885 (V)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
50%
Joe Biden Democratic
44%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
6%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
Jul 7–8, 2020
Sample size
1,081 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
48%
Joe Biden Democratic
45%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
6%
Alaska Survey Research
Alaska Survey Research
Poll source
Alaska Survey Research
Date(s) administered
Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020
Sample size
663 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Donald Trump Republican
49%
Joe Biden Democratic
48%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Poll source
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Date(s) administered
Jun 8–30, 2020
Sample size
161 (LV)
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
52%
Joe Biden Democratic
46%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
2%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Poll source
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Date(s) administered
Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019
Sample size
321 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump Republican
45%
Joe Biden Democratic
40%
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
-
Other
-
Undecided
15%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Other
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
634 (LV)
± 5%
54%
45%
Gravis Marketing
Oct 26–28, 2020
770 (LV)
± 3 %
52%
43%
5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 1–28, 2020
1,147 (LV)
54%
44%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care
Oct 19–20, 2020
800 (V)
± 3 %
50%
45%
-
5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Oct 9–14, 2020
423 (LV)
± 5 %
45%
39%
8%
2%
6%
Patinkin Research Strategies
Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020
600 (LV)
± 4%
49%
46%
3%
2%
Alaska Survey Research
Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020
696 (LV)
50%
46%
-
-
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Sep 1–30, 2020
563 (LV)
53%
45%
-
-
2%
Harstad Strategic Research/Independent Alaska
Sep 20–23, 2020
602 (LV)
± 4%
47%
46%
-
-
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Aug 1–31, 2020
472 (LV)
57%
42%
-
-
1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jul 1–31, 2020
412 (LV)
55%
43%
-
-
2%
Public Policy Polling (D)
Jul 23–24, 2020
885 (V)
50%
44%
-
-
6%
Public Policy Polling
Jul 7–8, 2020
1,081 (RV)
± 3 %
48%
45%
-
-
6%
Alaska Survey Research
Jun 23 – Jul 7, 2020
663 (LV)
± 3 %
49%
48%
-
-
4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jun 8–30, 2020
161 (LV)
52%
46%
-
-
2%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019
321 (LV)
± 5 %
45%
40%
-
-
15%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Poll source
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Date(s) administered
Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019
Sample size
321 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Donald Trump (R)
45%
Pete Buttigieg (D)
31%
Undecided
24%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Donald Trump (R)
Pete Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics
Jul 22 – Aug 9, 2019
321 (LV)
± 5 %
45%
31%
24%

References

  1. The national Green Party nominated Howie Hawkins for President with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate, but the Al
  2. Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of
  3. CBS News' presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  4. NPR's presidential election ratings uniquely do not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  9. Includes "Refused"
  10. "Someone else" with 3%
  11. Poll's funding crowdsourced by Election Twitter.
  12. For an unknown reason, the number of write-in votes differs between the official statewide results and the official Stat
  13. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  14. The Independent Alaska PAC supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling
  15. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  16. The Independent
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html
  17. National Archives and Records Administration
    https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/allocation.html
  18. 270toWin
    https://www.270towin.com/news/2020/05/04/the-road-to-270-alaska_1017.html
  19. Office of the Clerk, U . House of Representatives
    https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electioninfo/1964election.pdf
  20. The New York Times
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/upshot/poll-alaska-2020-election.html
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