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2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U . Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U . Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018. On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U . Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation. McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U . Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U . Senate seat. McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly, who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020. Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day. Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2 % on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0 % in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962. Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020, marking the first time since 1953 that Democrats held both of Arizona’s Senate seats.

Infobox

Nominee
Mark Kelly
Party
Democratic
Popular vote
1,716,467
Percentage
51 %

Tables

Republican primary results · Republican primary › Primary results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
732,880
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Martha McSally (incumbent)
551,119
75 %
Republican
Daniel McCarthy
181,551
24 %
Republican
Sean Lyons (write-in)
210
nil
Total votes
732,880
100 %
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Primary results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
666,071
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Mark Kelly
665,620
99 %
Democratic
Bo Garcia (write-in)
451
0 %
Total votes
666,071
100 %
Libertarian primary results · Libertarian primary › Primary results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
430
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Libertarian
Barry Hess (write-in)
329
76 %
Libertarian
Alan White (write-in)
101
23 %
Total votes
430
100 %
· General election › Predictions
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
As of
October 29, 2020
Tilt D (flip)
Tilt D (flip)
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tilt D (flip)
As of
October 28, 2020
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
As of
November 2, 2020
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Daily Kos
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
As of
October 30, 2020
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
As of
November 2, 2020
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
As of
October 23, 2020
Likely D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Likely D (flip)
As of
November 3, 2020
Likely D (flip)
Likely D (flip)
Source
538
Ranking
Likely D (flip)
As of
November 2, 2020
Lean D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Source
Economist
Ranking
Lean D (flip)
As of
November 2, 2020
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Lean D (flip)
October 29, 2020
Inside Elections
Tilt D (flip)
October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D (flip)
November 2, 2020
Daily Kos
Lean D (flip)
October 30, 2020
Politico
Lean D (flip)
November 2, 2020
RCP
Tossup
October 23, 2020
DDHQ
Likely D (flip)
November 3, 2020
538
Likely D (flip)
November 2, 2020
Economist
Lean D (flip)
November 2, 2020
· General election › Polling › Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Source of poll aggregation
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Dates administered
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Dates updated
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Martha McSally
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Margin
270 to Win
270 to Win
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
270 to Win
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
November 2, 2020
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
November 3, 2020
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
49 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
44 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Kelly +5
Real Clear Politics
Real Clear Politics
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Real Clear Politics
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
November 1, 2020
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
November 3, 2020
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
50 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
44 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Kelly +5
Average
Average
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Average
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
50 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
44 %
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Kelly +5
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Mark Kelly
Martha McSally
Margin
270 to Win
November 2, 2020
November 3, 2020
49 %
44 %
Kelly +5
Real Clear Politics
November 1, 2020
November 3, 2020
50 %
44 %
Kelly +5
Average
50 %
44 %
Kelly +5

References

  1. In December 2018, McSally was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator John M
  2. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  3. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  4. "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  5. "Other" and Undecided with 1%
  6. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  9. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  10. "Some other" with 3 %; "Other" with 7 %; Undecided with 2%
  11. "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  13. Undecided with 6%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  15. Undecided with 10%
  16. "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  17. "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  18. Undecided with 2%
  19. "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  20. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
Image
Source:
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