Topzle Topzle

2020 United States Senate election in Texas

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U . presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn won a fourth term against Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by 9 %. Prior to the election, most news organizations projected this race as "Lean Republican", and was not expected to be as competitive as the contest for Texas's other Senate seat two years prior, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 2 % margin. Nonetheless, John Cornyn won in what was his worst performance out of his four elections for the U . Senate, while MJ Hegar's 43 % marked the highest vote share of any of Cornyn's Democratic challengers. Despite this being Cornyn's worst performance percentage-wise, he more than doubled his 2014 vote count and received what was then the most raw votes for a Republican U . Senate candidate in the history of the United States; this record was later surpassed by Steve Garvey in California in 2024. Cornyn outperformed President Donald Trump in the state by about 4%, and was able to carry two counties won by Joe Biden (Tarrant and Williamson). While Cornyn did better than Trump in the Texas Triangle, contributing to his over performance, Hegar slightly outperformed Biden in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, and was able to carry one Trump county (Zapata), though Hegar herself vastly underperformed previous Democratic margins in the region.

Infobox

Turnout
65 % 32 %
Nominee
John Cornyn
Party
Republican
Popular vote
5,962,983
Percentage
53 %

Tables

· Republican primary › Polling
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
Poll source
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
Date(s) administered
January 21–30, 2020
Sample size
445 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Virgil Bierschwale
<1%
John Anthony Castro
5%
John Cornyn
62%
Dwayne Stovall
3%
Mark Yancey
1%
Undecided
30%
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
January 16–21, 2020
Sample size
687 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Virgil Bierschwale
1%
John Anthony Castro
0%
John Cornyn
75%
Dwayne Stovall
2%
Mark Yancey
1%
Undecided
22%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Virgil Bierschwale
John Anthony Castro
John Cornyn
Dwayne Stovall
Mark Yancey
Undecided
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
January 21–30, 2020
445 (LV)
± 4 %
<1%
5%
62%
3%
1%
30%
Data for Progress
January 16–21, 2020
687 (LV)
–
1%
0%
75%
2%
1%
22%
Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
1,934,047
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
John Cornyn (incumbent)
1,470,669
76 %
Republican
Dwayne Stovall
231,104
11 %
Republican
Mark Yancey
124,864
6 %
Republican
John Anthony Castro
86,916
4 %
Republican
Virgil Bierschwale
20,494
1 %
Total votes
1,934,047
100 %
· Democratic primary › First round › Debates
MJ Hegar
MJ Hegar
Host network
MJ Hegar
Date
Royce West
Link(s)
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
Participants
Annie Garcia
Participants
Amanda Edwards
Participants
Chris Bell
Participants
Sema Hernandez
Participants
Michael Cooper
Participants
Victor Hugo Harris
Participants
Adrian Ocegueda
Participants
Jack Daniel Foster Jr.
Participants
D. R. Hunter
KHOU-11
KHOU-11
Host network
KHOU-11
Date
February 18, 2020
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Participants
Present
Host network
Date
Link(s)
Participants
MJ Hegar
Royce West
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
Annie Garcia
Amanda Edwards
Chris Bell
Sema Hernandez
Michael Cooper
Victor Hugo Harris
Adrian Ocegueda
Jack Daniel Foster Jr.
D. R. Hunter
KHOU-11
February 18, 2020
Present
Present
Present
Present
Present
Present
Present
Present
Present
· Democratic primary › First round › Polling
NBC News/Marist
NBC News/Marist
Poll source
NBC News/Marist
Date(s) administered
February 23–27, 2020
Sample size
556 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
5%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
7%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
16%
Sema Hernandez
5%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Poll source
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 9, 2020
Sample size
575 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
7%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
6%
Annie Garcia
5%
MJ Hegar
22%
Sema Hernandez
5%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
Poll source
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
Date(s) administered
January 21–30, 2020
Sample size
414 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
5%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
4%
Annie Garcia
6%
MJ Hegar
9%
Sema Hernandez
4%
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
January 16–21, 2020
Sample size
684 (LV)
Margin of error
± 6 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
8%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
3%
Annie Garcia
4%
MJ Hegar
18%
Sema Hernandez
3%
Texas Lyceum
Texas Lyceum
Poll source
Texas Lyceum
Date(s) administered
January 10–19, 2020
Sample size
401 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
5%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
6%
Annie Garcia
4%
MJ Hegar
11%
Sema Hernandez
5%
Beacon Research (D)
Beacon Research (D)
Poll source
Beacon Research (D)
Date(s) administered
November 9–21, 2019
Sample size
408 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
4%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
–
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
6%
Sema Hernandez
6%
University of Texas at Tyler
University of Texas at Tyler
Poll source
University of Texas at Tyler
Date(s) administered
November 5–14, 2019
Sample size
427 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
7%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
8%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
9%
Sema Hernandez
–
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Poll source
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Date(s) administered
October 18–29, 2019
Sample size
541 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
3%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
0%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
12%
Sema Hernandez
6%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Poll source
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
Date(s) administered
August 29 – September 8, 2019
Sample size
550 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
2%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
2%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
11%
Sema Hernandez
3%
Ragnar Research
Ragnar Research
Poll source
Ragnar Research
Date(s) administered
September 3–5, 2019
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
9%
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
10%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
12%
Sema Hernandez
–
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News
Poll source
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News
Date(s) administered
August 1–3, 2019
Sample size
400 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
6 %
Joaquín Castro
–
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
–
Annie Garcia
5 %
MJ Hegar
9 %
Sema Hernandez
–
Change Research
Change Research
Poll source
Change Research
Date(s) administered
April 18–22, 2019
Sample size
1,578 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Colin Allred
6%
Chris Bell
–
Joaquín Castro
56%
Wendy Davis
–
Amanda Edwards
1%
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
4%
Sema Hernandez
–
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
March 5–7, 2019
Sample size
608 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Colin Allred
–
Chris Bell
–
Joaquín Castro
42%
Wendy Davis
19%
Amanda Edwards
–
Annie Garcia
–
MJ Hegar
4%
Sema Hernandez
2%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Colin Allred
Chris Bell
Joaquín Castro
Wendy Davis
Amanda Edwards
Annie Garcia
MJ Hegar
Sema Hernandez
NBC News/Marist
February 23–27, 2020
556 (LV)
± 5 %
–
5%
–
–
7%
–
16%
5%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
January 31 – February 9, 2020
575 (LV)
± 4 %
–
7%
–
–
6%
5%
22%
5%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News
January 21–30, 2020
414 (LV)
± 4 %
–
5%
–
–
4%
6%
9%
4%
Data for Progress
January 16–21, 2020
684 (LV)
± 6 %
–
8%
–
–
3%
4%
18%
3%
Texas Lyceum
January 10–19, 2020
401 (LV)
± 4 %
–
5%
–
–
6%
4%
11%
5%
December 9, 2019
Filing deadline, by which Allred had not declared his candidacy
December 6, 2019
Annie Garcia announces her candidacy
December 5, 2019
O'Rourke announces he will not run after end of presidential campaign
Beacon Research (D)
November 9–21, 2019
408 (LV)
–
–
4%
–
–
–
–
6%
6%
University of Texas at Tyler
November 5–14, 2019
427 (RV)
± 4 %
–
7%
–
–
8%
–
9%
–
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
October 18–29, 2019
541 (RV)
± 4 %
–
3%
–
–
0%
–
12%
6%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
August 29 – September 8, 2019
550 (RV)
± 4 %
–
2%
–
–
2%
–
11%
3%
Ragnar Research
September 3–5, 2019
600 (LV)
± 3 %
–
9%
–
–
10%
–
12%
–
August 12, 2019
Ramirez announces her candidacy
Emerson College/Dallas Morning News
August 1–3, 2019
400 (LV)
± 4 %
–
6 %
–
–
–
5 %
9 %
–
July 22, 2019
West announces his candidacy and Davis announces a 2020 House bid, confirming she will not run for US Senate
July 18, 2019
Edwards announces her candidacy
July 3, 2019
Bell announces his candidacy
May 1, 2019
Joaquín Castro announces he will not run
April 23, 2019
Hegar announces her candidacy
Change Research
April 18–22, 2019
1,578 (LV)
± 2 %
6%
–
56%
–
1%
–
4%
–
Public Policy Polling (D)
March 5–7, 2019
608 (LV)
± 4 %
–
–
42%
19%
–
–
4%
2%
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › First round › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
1,869,419
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
MJ Hegar
417,160
22 %
Democratic
Royce West
274,074
14 %
Democratic
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez
246,659
13 %
Democratic
Annie "Mamá" Garcia
191,900
10 %
Democratic
Amanda Edwards
189,624
10 %
Democratic
Chris Bell
159,751
8 %
Democratic
Sema Hernandez
137,892
7 %
Democratic
Michael Cooper
92,463
4 %
Democratic
Victor Hugo Harris
59,710
3 %
Democratic
Adrian Ocegueda
41,566
2 %
Democratic
Jack Daniel Foster Jr.
31,718
1 %
Democratic
D. R. Hunter
26,902
1 %
Total votes
1,869,419
100 %

References

  1. Data for Progress had endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign prior to the sampling period
  2. Data for Progress has endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
  4. Poll conducted for John Cornyn.
  5. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. Giffords endorsed Hegar to this poll's sampling period
  7. Poll sponsored for The Consumer Energy Alliance which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
  8. Poll conducted for the Texas Youth Power Alliance.
  9. Poll conducted for Latino Decisions.
  10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
  12. Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  13. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  14. Michael Cooper with 4%; "other" with 1%
  15. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  16. The five remaining candidates or "someone else" with 34%; refused with 6%
  17. Michael Cooper, Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and Victor Hugo Harris with 3%; D. R. Hunter with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%
  18. Michael Cooper with 2%; Victor Hugo Harris and Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr., D. R. Hunter, and "not v
  19. Leaning towards no one candidate, but not leaning towards not voting
  20. Michael Cooper and Victor Hugo Harris with 5%; Adrian Ocegueda with 2%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and D. R. Hunter with 0%;
Image
Source: —
Tip: Wheel or +/− to zoom, drag to pan, Esc to close.