Topzle Topzle

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U . presidential election and elections to the U . House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018. The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw. In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as three other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot. Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by nearly four percentage points during the general election, a gap largely attributed to his stronger performance in suburban areas across Tennessee. Hagerty ran particularly well in the suburbs of Nashville, including Forest Hills, Belle Meade, Oak Hill, Franklin, Hendersonville, and Murfreesboro. He also exceeded Trump’s margins in suburban Memphis communities, most notably Germantown and Collierville as well as other surrounding suburbs.

Infobox

Turnout
69 % 33 pp
Nominee
Bill Hagerty
Party
Republican
Popular vote
1,840,926
Percentage
62 %

Tables

· Republican primary › Polling
JMC Analytics and Polling
JMC Analytics and Polling
Poll source
JMC Analytics and Polling
Date(s) administered
July 18–19, 2020
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
±  4 %
George Flinn
5%
Bill Hagerty
36%
Manny Sethi
32%
Other
9%
Undecided
20%
The Trafalgar Group
The Trafalgar Group
Poll source
The Trafalgar Group
Date(s) administered
July 6–8, 2020
Sample size
1,062 (LV)
Margin of error
±  2 %
George Flinn
4%
Bill Hagerty
42%
Manny Sethi
39%
Other
2%
Undecided
13%
Victory Phones
Victory Phones
Poll source
Victory Phones
Date(s) administered
June 30 – July 1, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
±  3 %
George Flinn
6%
Bill Hagerty
33%
Manny Sethi
31%
Other
Undecided
30%
The Tarrance Group
The Tarrance Group
Poll source
The Tarrance Group
Date(s) administered
June 28–30, 2020
Sample size
651 (LV)
Margin of error
±  4 %
George Flinn
5%
Bill Hagerty
46%
Manny Sethi
29%
Other
2%
Undecided
18%
Victory Phones
Victory Phones
Poll source
Victory Phones
Date(s) administered
June 2, 2020
Sample size
Margin of error
George Flinn
Bill Hagerty
27%
Manny Sethi
11%
Other
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
George Flinn
Bill Hagerty
Manny Sethi
Other
Undecided
JMC Analytics and Polling
July 18–19, 2020
600 (LV)
± 4 %
5%
36%
32%
9%
20%
The Trafalgar Group
July 6–8, 2020
1,062 (LV)
± 2 %
4%
42%
39%
2%
13%
Victory Phones
June 30 – July 1, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3 %
6%
33%
31%
30%
The Tarrance Group
June 28–30, 2020
651 (LV)
± 4 %
5%
46%
29%
2%
18%
Victory Phones
June 2, 2020
27%
11%
Mark Green vs. Bill Haslam
Triton/Tennessee Star
Triton/Tennessee Star
Poll source
Triton/Tennessee Star
Date(s) administered
April 13–16, 2019
Sample size
1,003 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mark Green
30%
Bill Haslam
39%
Undecided
≈30%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mark Green
Bill Haslam
Undecided
Triton/Tennessee Star
April 13–16, 2019
1,003 (LV)
± 3 %
30%
39%
≈30%
Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
652,724
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Bill Hagerty
331,267
50 %
Republican
Manny Sethi
257,223
39 %
Republican
George Flinn, Jr.
22,454
3 %
Republican
Jon Henry
8,104
1 %
Republican
Natisha Brooks
8,072
1 %
Republican
Byron Bush
5,420
0 %
Republican
Clifford Adkins
5,316
0 %
Republican
Terry Dicus
2,279
0 %
Republican
Tom Emerson, Jr.
2,252
0 %
Republican
David Schuster
2,045
0 %
Republican
John Osborne
1,877
0 %
Republican
Roy Dale Cope
1,791
0 %
Republican
Kent Morrell
1,769
0 %
Republican
Aaron Pettigrew
1,622
0 %
Republican
Glen Neal, Jr.
1,233
0 %
Total votes
652,724
100 %
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
332,223
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Marquita Bradshaw
117,962
35 %
Democratic
Robin Kimbrough Hayes
88,492
26 %
Democratic
James Mackler
78,966
23 %
Democratic
Gary G. Davis
30,758
9 %
Democratic
Mark Pickrell
16,045
4 %
Total votes
332,223
100 %
· General election › Predictions
Safe R
Safe R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 29, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 28, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 2, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Daily Kos
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 30, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 2, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 23, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 3, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
538
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 2, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Economist
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 2, 2020
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
October 29, 2020
Inside Elections
Safe R
October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
November 2, 2020
Daily Kos
Safe R
November 30, 2020
Politico
Safe R
November 2, 2020
RCP
Likely R
October 23, 2020
DDHQ
Safe R
November 3, 2020
538
Safe R
November 2, 2020
Economist
Safe R
November 2, 2020

References

  1. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  2. "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. Not yet released
  4. "Third-party candidate" with 1%
  5. "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%
  6. Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  7. Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.
  8. Tennessee Secretary of State
    https://sos.tn.gov/elections/statistics
  9. "HOLY COW Lamar Alexander: "I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate in 2020""
    https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1074714366191300608
  10. Daves Redistricting
    https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a638a0a-92e0-479c-9e8e-e96a40f69caa
  11. Washington Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/tennessee-2020/
  12. The Tennessean
    https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/tennessee-us-senator-lamar-alexander-replace-senate-race-candidates/2336318002/
  13. "Trump announces, endorses Bill Hagerty bid for Tennessee U . Senate seat"
    https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/breakingnews/story/2019/jul/12/trump-announces-endorses-bill-hagerty-bid-senate/498683/
  14. Oak Ridger
    https://www.oakridger.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/17/early-voting-begins-today/41724829/
  15. "Byron Bush for Tennessee Senate"
    https://www.bushforsenate.com
  16. "CopeTN2020 – TN Candidate for US Senate 2020"
    https://copetn2020.com
  17. The Chattanoogan
    https://www.chattanoogan.com/2020/4/16/407619/State-Republicans-Dump-Basil-Marceaux.aspx
  18. The Tennessean
    https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/02/tennessee-candidates-statewide-legislative-offices-2020/5114773002/
  19. Open Secrets
    https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2020&id=TNS2
  20. Ballotpedia
    https://ballotpedia.org/Aaron_Pettigrew
Image
Source:
Tip: Wheel or +/− to zoom, drag to pan, Esc to close.