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2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina

The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U . presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won re-election for a fourth term and defeated Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison. Bill Bledsoe was also on the ballot, representing the Constitution Party. The primary elections were held on June 9, 2020. Despite forecasting throughout the last few months of the race showing a very close race as well as Harrison having record fundraising numbers, Graham defeated Harrison by 54 % to 44 % and a margin of 10 % in the November 3, 2020 general election. Harrison slightly outperformed Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who lost to President Donald Trump by 11 % in South Carolina. The election coincidentally saw Graham and his Democratic opponent win approximately the same percentage points as in the 2002 senate race, in which Graham won his first term.

Infobox

Turnout
72 %
Nominee
Lindsey Graham
Party
Republican
Popular vote
1,369,137
Percentage
54 %

Tables

· Republican primary › Polling
Change Research
Change Research
Poll source
Change Research
Date(s) administered
June 11–14, 2019
Sample size
1,183 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham
70%
Other
4%
Undecided
26%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Lindsey Graham
Other
Undecided
Change Research
June 11–14, 2019
1,183 (LV)
± 2 %
70%
4%
26%
Change Research
Change Research
Poll source
Change Research
Date(s) administered
June 11–14, 2019
Sample size
1,183 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham
79%
Generic Republican
19%
Other
2%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Lindsey Graham
Generic Republican
Other
Change Research
June 11–14, 2019
1,183 (LV)
± 2 %
79%
19%
2%
Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
469,043
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Lindsey Graham (incumbent)
317,512
67 %
Republican
Michael LaPierre
79,932
17 %
Republican
Joe Reynolds
43,029
9 %
Republican
Dwayne "Duke" Buckner
28,570
6 %
Total votes
469,043
100 %
· General election › Predictions
Tossup
Tossup
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Tossup
As of
October 29, 2020
Tilt R
Tilt R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Tilt R
As of
October 28, 2020
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 2, 2020
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Daily Kos
Ranking
Lean R
As of
October 30, 2020
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 2, 2020
Tossup
Tossup
Source
RCP
Ranking
Tossup
As of
October 23, 2020
Lean R
Lean R
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 3, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
538
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 2, 2020
Lean R
Lean R
Source
Economist
Ranking
Lean R
As of
November 2, 2020
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
October 29, 2020
Inside Elections
Tilt R
October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
November 2, 2020
Daily Kos
Lean R
October 30, 2020
Politico
Lean R
November 2, 2020
RCP
Tossup
October 23, 2020
DDHQ
Lean R
November 3, 2020
538
Likely R
November 2, 2020
Economist
Lean R
November 2, 2020
· General election › Polling
0ptimus
0ptimus
Poll source
0ptimus
Date(s) administered
October 31 – November 2, 2020
Sample size
817 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
51%
Jaime Harrison (D)
41%
Other / Undecided
7%
Data For Progress
Data For Progress
Poll source
Data For Progress
Date(s) administered
October 27 – November 1, 2020
Sample size
1,121 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
49%
Jaime Harrison (D)
46%
Other / Undecided
5%
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
October 23 – November 1, 2020
Sample size
416 (LV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
52%
Other / Undecided
2%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 22–31, 2020
Sample size
904 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
44%
Other / Undecided
–
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
October 22–27, 2020
Sample size
1,196 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
Starboard Communications
Starboard Communications
Poll source
Starboard Communications
Date(s) administered
October 26, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Lindsey Graham (R)
52%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
6%
East Carolina University
East Carolina University
Poll source
East Carolina University
Date(s) administered
October 24–25, 2020
Sample size
763 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
49%
Jaime Harrison (D)
47%
Other / Undecided
3%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 11–20, 2020
Sample size
926 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
47%
Other / Undecided
–
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Poll source
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
October 11–16, 2020
Sample size
525 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
47%
Other / Undecided
8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Poll source
Siena College/NYT Upshot
Date(s) administered
October 9–14, 2020
Sample size
605 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
40%
Other / Undecided
14%
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
October 8–11, 2020
Sample size
801 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
47%
Other / Undecided
7%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 2–11, 2020
Sample size
903 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Lindsey Graham (R)
48%
Jaime Harrison (D)
42%
Other / Undecided
–
ALG Research (D)
ALG Research (D)
Poll source
ALG Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 29 – October 5, 2020
Sample size
711 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
46%
Other / Undecided
8%
GBAO Strategies (D)
GBAO Strategies (D)
Poll source
GBAO Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
September 24–28, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
47%
Jaime Harrison (D)
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
September 23–28, 2020
Sample size
824 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
44%
Other / Undecided
11%
47%
47%
Poll source
47%
Date(s) administered
46%
Sample size
7%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
September 23–27, 2020
Sample size
1,123 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
48%
Jaime Harrison (D)
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
YouGov
YouGov
Poll source
YouGov
Date(s) administered
September 22–25, 2020
Sample size
1,080 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
44%
Other / Undecided
11%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Poll source
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
September 21–24, 2020
Sample size
608 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Lindsey Graham (R)
43%
Jaime Harrison (D)
45%
Other / Undecided
13%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 11–20, 2020
Sample size
764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3% – 4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
45%
Other / Undecided
9%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 8–17, 2020
Sample size
782 (LV)
Margin of error
± (2% – 4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
46%
Other / Undecided
–
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
September 10–14, 2020
Sample size
969 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
48%
Jaime Harrison (D)
48%
Other / Undecided
3%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 2–11, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
44%
Jaime Harrison (D)
46%
Other / Undecided
–
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 23 – September 1, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
–
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 13–22, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
42%
Other / Undecided
–
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
August 3–12, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
45%
Jaime Harrison (D)
45%
Other / Undecided
–
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
July 30 – August 3, 2020
Sample size
914 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
44%
Jaime Harrison (D)
44%
Other / Undecided
12%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
July 24 – August 2, 2020
Sample size
741 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
44%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
12%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
July 23 – August 1, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
44%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
–
Public Policy Polling (D)
Public Policy Polling (D)
Poll source
Public Policy Polling (D)
Date(s) administered
July 30–31, 2020
Sample size
1,117 (V)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
47%
Jaime Harrison (D)
44%
Other / Undecided
8%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
July 13–22, 2020
Sample size
~764 (LV)
Margin of error
± (3%–4%)
Lindsey Graham (R)
46%
Jaime Harrison (D)
42%
Other / Undecided
–
ALG Research (D)
ALG Research (D)
Poll source
ALG Research (D)
Date(s) administered
July 15–20, 2020
Sample size
591 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Lindsey Graham (R)
49%
Jaime Harrison (D)
45%
Other / Undecided
6%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Poll source
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
July 13–19, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
43%
Jaime Harrison (D)
41%
Other / Undecided
16%
Gravis Marketing
Gravis Marketing
Poll source
Gravis Marketing
Date(s) administered
July 17, 2020
Sample size
604 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
48%
Jaime Harrison (D)
41%
Other / Undecided
10%
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Poll source
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Date(s) administered
May 23–26, 2020
Sample size
591 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
42%
Jaime Harrison (D)
42%
Other / Undecided
16%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Poll source
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
Date(s) administered
March 3–11, 2020
Sample size
804 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
47%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
9%
NBC News/Marist
NBC News/Marist
Poll source
NBC News/Marist
Date(s) administered
February 18–21, 2020
Sample size
2,382 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
54%
Jaime Harrison (D)
37%
Other / Undecided
9%
East Carolina University
East Carolina University
Poll source
East Carolina University
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 2, 2020
Sample size
1,756 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
51%
Jaime Harrison (D)
38%
Other / Undecided
11%
Change Research
Change Research
Poll source
Change Research
Date(s) administered
December 6–11, 2019
Sample size
998 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
47%
Jaime Harrison (D)
45%
Other / Undecided
9%
Benchmark Research (R)
Benchmark Research (R)
Poll source
Benchmark Research (R)
Date(s) administered
October 15–21, 2019
Sample size
450 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
53%
Jaime Harrison (D)
30%
Other / Undecided
18%
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
September 17–21, 2019
Sample size
809 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
50%
Jaime Harrison (D)
43%
Other / Undecided
7%
Change Research
Change Research
Poll source
Change Research
Date(s) administered
June 11–14, 2019
Sample size
2,312 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
52%
Jaime Harrison (D)
35%
Other / Undecided
13%
WPA Intelligence (R)
WPA Intelligence (R)
Poll source
WPA Intelligence (R)
Date(s) administered
March 11–13, 2019
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Lindsey Graham (R)
55%
Jaime Harrison (D)
32%
Other / Undecided
12%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Lindsey Graham (R)
Jaime Harrison (D)
Other / Undecided
0ptimus
October 31 – November 2, 2020
817 (LV)
± 3 %
51%
41%
7%
Data For Progress
October 27 – November 1, 2020
1,121 (LV)
± 2 %
49%
46%
5%
Swayable
October 23 – November 1, 2020
416 (LV)
± 7 %
46%
52%
2%
Morning Consult
October 22–31, 2020
904 (LV)
± 3%
46%
44%
–
Data for Progress
October 22–27, 2020
1,196 (LV)
± 2 %
46%
46%
8%
Starboard Communications
October 26, 2020
800 (LV)
–
52%
43%
6%
East Carolina University
October 24–25, 2020
763 (LV)
± 4 %
49%
47%
3%
Morning Consult
October 11–20, 2020
926 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
47%
–
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
October 11–16, 2020
525 (LV)
± 4 %
45%
47%
8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot
October 9–14, 2020
605 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
40%
14%
Data for Progress
October 8–11, 2020
801 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
47%
7%
Morning Consult
October 2–11, 2020
903 (LV)
± 3%
48%
42%
–
ALG Research (D)
September 29 – October 5, 2020
711 (LV)
–
46%
46%
8%
GBAO Strategies (D)
September 24–28, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
48%
3%
Data for Progress (D)
September 23–28, 2020
824 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
44%
11%
47%
46%
7%
Quinnipiac University
September 23–27, 2020
1,123 (LV)
± 2 %
48%
48%
3%
YouGov
September 22–25, 2020
1,080 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
44%
11%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
September 21–24, 2020
608 (LV)
± 4%
43%
45%
13%
Morning Consult
September 11–20, 2020
764 (LV)
± (3% – 4%)
46%
45%
9%
Morning Consult
September 8–17, 2020
782 (LV)
± (2% – 4%)
45%
46%
–
Quinnipiac University
September 10–14, 2020
969 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
48%
3%
Morning Consult
September 2–11, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
44%
46%
–
Morning Consult
August 23 – September 1, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
46%
43%
–
Morning Consult
August 13–22, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
45%
42%
–
Morning Consult
August 3–12, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
45%
45%
–
Quinnipiac University
July 30 – August 3, 2020
914 (RV)
± 3 %
44%
44%
12%
Morning Consult
July 24 – August 2, 2020
741 (LV)
± 4 %
44%
43%
12%
Morning Consult
July 23 – August 1, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
44%
43%
–
Public Policy Polling (D)
July 30–31, 2020
1,117 (V)
± 3 %
47%
44%
8%
Morning Consult
July 13–22, 2020
~764 (LV)
± (3%–4%)
46%
42%
–
ALG Research (D)
July 15–20, 2020
591 (LV)
–
49%
45%
6%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
July 13–19, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3 %
43%
41%
16%
Gravis Marketing
July 17, 2020
604 (LV)
± 4 %
48%
41%
10%
Civiqs/Daily Kos
May 23–26, 2020
591 (RV)
± 4 %
42%
42%
16%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)
March 3–11, 2020
804 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
43%
9%
NBC News/Marist
February 18–21, 2020
2,382 (RV)
± 2 %
54%
37%
9%
East Carolina University
January 31 – February 2, 2020
1,756 (RV)
± 2 %
51%
38%
11%
Change Research
December 6–11, 2019
998 (LV)
± 3 %
47%
45%
9%
Benchmark Research (R)
October 15–21, 2019
450 (RV)
± 4 %
53%
30%
18%
Change Research (D)
September 17–21, 2019
809 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
43%
7%
Change Research
June 11–14, 2019
2,312 (RV)
± 2 %
52%
35%
13%
WPA Intelligence (R)
March 11–13, 2019
500 (LV)
± 4 %
55%
32%
12%

References

  1. This poll was sponsored by Harrison's campaign
  2. This poll's sponsor, Lindsey Must Go, is a PAC opposing Lindsey Graham.
  3. Poll sponsored by the DSCC, which has endorsed Jaime Harrison's campaign for the 2020 US Senate election in South Caroli
  4. This poll's sponsor, Giffords, had endorsed Harrison prior to the sampling period
  5. Poll sponsor is a Security in Strength PAC, a super PAC that supported Lindsey Graham during this poll's sampling period
  6. Poll sponsor, Collective PAC, had endorsed Harrison prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy
  8. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  9. Warren with 3%; Kandies with 1%; Burns, Hill, Reynolds and Wilson with 0%
  10. Would not vote with 2%
  11. "Third party candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  12. Bledsoe (C) with 4%; "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  13. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
    https://web.archive.org/web/20201113073344/https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-11-02-large.html
  14. Bledsoe (C) with 2%
  15. Bledsoe (C) with 3%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  16. Bledsoe (C) and Undecided with 3%
  17. "Refused" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  18. Bledsoe (C) with 3%; "Other" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
  19. Archived October 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
    https://web.archive.org/web/20201015183321/https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/sc100920-crosstabs/7b3ac01b2be42e57/full.pdf
  20. Bledsoe (C) with 4%; would not vote with 2%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
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