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2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries. Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign. In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. Tillis was elected to a second and final term, outperforming pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over twenty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996 when Jesse Helms won reelection. On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. Tillis won by a margin of 1 % over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1 % victory in 2014. Tillis received a smaller vote share than Donald Trump's 49 %, but slightly overperformed his margin of victory in North Carolina.

Infobox

Turnout
77 %
Nominee
Thom Tillis
Party
Republican
Popular vote
2,665,598
Percentage
48 %

Tables

· Republican primary › Polling
High Point University
High Point University
Poll source
High Point University
Date(s) administered
February 21–28, 2020
Sample size
247 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
69%
Garland Tucker
–
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
8%
Other
8%
Undecided
16%
444 (RV)
444 (RV)
Poll source
444 (RV)
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
–
Margin of error
58%
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
–
Garland Tucker
7%
Mark Walker
10%
Paul Wright
26%
Meredith College
Meredith College
Poll source
Meredith College
Date(s) administered
February 16–24, 2020
Sample size
353 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
53%
Garland Tucker
–
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
5%
Other
6%
Undecided
36%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
February 13–16, 2020
Sample size
501 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
59%
Garland Tucker
–
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
3%
Other
8%
Undecided
29%
High Point University
High Point University
Poll source
High Point University
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 6, 2020
Sample size
198 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
62%
Garland Tucker
–
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
7%
Other
5%
Undecided
27%
400 (RV)
400 (RV)
Poll source
400 (RV)
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
–
Margin of error
52%
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
–
Garland Tucker
6%
Mark Walker
5%
Paul Wright
38%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)
Poll source
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)
Date(s) administered
December 2–4, 2019
Sample size
500 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Sandy Smith
11%
Thom Tillis
63%
Garland Tucker
–
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
–
Other
–
Undecided
25%
FOX News
FOX News
Poll source
FOX News
Date(s) administered
November 10–13, 2019
Sample size
574 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Sandy Smith
4%
Thom Tillis
54%
Garland Tucker
11%
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
–
Other
5%
Undecided
26%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
August 19–20, 2019
Sample size
564 (V)
Margin of error
–
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
38%
Garland Tucker
31%
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
–
Other
–
Undecided
31%
Diversified Research (R)
Diversified Research (R)
Poll source
Diversified Research (R)
Date(s) administered
July 8–9, 2019
Sample size
500 (V)
Margin of error
–
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
40%
Garland Tucker
30%
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
–
Other
–
Undecided
30%
WPA Intelligence (R)
WPA Intelligence (R)
Poll source
WPA Intelligence (R)
Date(s) administered
May 19–21, 2019
Sample size
502 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Sandy Smith
2%
Thom Tillis
40%
Garland Tucker
11%
Mark Walker
17%
Paul Wright
–
Other
–
Undecided
30%
2%
2%
Poll source
2%
Date(s) administered
18%
Sample size
8%
Margin of error
56%
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
–
Garland Tucker
16%
Diversified Research (R)
Diversified Research (R)
Poll source
Diversified Research (R)
Date(s) administered
Months before May, 2019
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Sandy Smith
–
Thom Tillis
63%
Garland Tucker
7%
Mark Walker
–
Paul Wright
–
Other
–
Undecided
30%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Sandy Smith
Thom Tillis
Garland Tucker
Mark Walker
Paul Wright
Other
Undecided
High Point University
February 21–28, 2020
247 (LV)
–
–
69%
–
–
8%
8%
16%
444 (RV)
–
–
58%
–
–
7%
10%
26%
Meredith College
February 16–24, 2020
353 (LV)
± 3 %
–
53%
–
–
5%
6%
36%
SurveyUSA
February 13–16, 2020
501 (LV)
± 5 %
–
59%
–
–
3%
8%
29%
High Point University
January 31 – February 6, 2020
198 (LV)
–
–
62%
–
–
7%
5%
27%
400 (RV)
–
–
52%
–
–
6%
5%
38%
December 20, 2019
Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy
December 16, 2019
Walker announces he will not run
Harper Polling/Civitas (R)
December 2–4, 2019
500 (LV)
± 4 %
11%
63%
–
–
–
–
25%
December 2, 2019
Tucker withdraws from the race
FOX News
November 10–13, 2019
574 (LV)
± 4 %
4%
54%
11%
–
–
5%
26%
Public Policy Polling
August 19–20, 2019
564 (V)
–
–
38%
31%
–
–
–
31%
Diversified Research (R)
July 8–9, 2019
500 (V)
–
–
40%
30%
–
–
–
30%
WPA Intelligence (R)
May 19–21, 2019
502 (LV)
± 4 %
2%
40%
11%
17%
–
–
30%
2%
18%
8%
56%
–
–
16%
May 6, 2019
Tucker announces his candidacy
Diversified Research (R)
Months before May, 2019
–
–
–
63%
7%
–
–
–
30%
WPA Intelligence (R)
WPA Intelligence (R)
Poll source
WPA Intelligence (R)
Date(s) administered
May 19–21, 2019
Sample size
502 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Thom Tillis
43%
Mark Walker
34%
Undecided
23%
28%
28%
Poll source
28%
Date(s) administered
64%
Sample size
8%
21%
21%
Poll source
21%
Date(s) administered
69%
Sample size
10%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Thom Tillis
Mark Walker
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)
May 19–21, 2019
502 (LV)
± 4 %
43%
34%
23%
28%
64%
8%
21%
69%
10%
WPA Intelligence (R)
WPA Intelligence (R)
Poll source
WPA Intelligence (R)
Date(s) administered
May 19–21, 2019
Sample size
502 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Thom Tillis
17%
Generic Republican
18%
Undecided
52%
7%
7%
Poll source
7%
Date(s) administered
32%
Sample size
57%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Thom Tillis
Generic Republican
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)
May 19–21, 2019
502 (LV)
± 4 %
17%
18%
52%
7%
32%
57%
Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
779,858
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Thom Tillis (incumbent)
608,943
78 %
Republican
Paul Wright
58,908
7 %
Republican
Larry Holmquist
57,356
7 %
Republican
Sharon Y. Hudson
54,651
7 %
Total votes
779,858
100 %
· Democratic primary › Polling
High Point University
High Point University
Poll source
High Point University
Date(s) administered
February 21–28, 2020
Sample size
274 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Cal Cunningham
50%
Trevor Fuller
4%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
24%
Steve Swenson
3%
Undecided
18%
474 (RV)
474 (RV)
Poll source
474 (RV)
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
42%
Margin of error
5%
Cal Cunningham
1%
Trevor Fuller
24%
Atul Goel
4%
Erica Smith
4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Poll source
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Date(s) administered
February 26–27, 2020
Sample size
587 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Cal Cunningham
45%
Trevor Fuller
2%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
23%
Steve Swenson
1%
Undecided
28%
NBC News/Marist
NBC News/Marist
Poll source
NBC News/Marist
Date(s) administered
February 23–27, 2020
Sample size
568 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Cal Cunningham
51%
Trevor Fuller
3%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
18%
Steve Swenson
2%
Undecided
25%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
February 23–24, 2020
Sample size
852 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Cal Cunningham
45%
Trevor Fuller
4%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
18%
Steve Swenson
2%
Undecided
30%
Meredith College
Meredith College
Poll source
Meredith College
Date(s) administered
February 16–24, 2020
Sample size
429 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Cal Cunningham
43%
Trevor Fuller
2%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
14%
Steve Swenson
2%
Undecided
36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Poll source
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
Date(s) administered
February 21–23, 2020
Sample size
553 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Cal Cunningham
48%
Trevor Fuller
1%
Atul Goel
0%
Erica Smith
21%
Steve Swenson
1%
Undecided
29%
SurveyUSA
SurveyUSA
Poll source
SurveyUSA
Date(s) administered
February 13–16, 2020
Sample size
698 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Cal Cunningham
42%
Trevor Fuller
3%
Atul Goel
1%
Erica Smith
17%
Steve Swenson
3%
Undecided
34%
High Point University
High Point University
Poll source
High Point University
Date(s) administered
January 31 – February 6, 2020
Sample size
224 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Cal Cunningham
37%
Trevor Fuller
4%
Atul Goel
0%
Erica Smith
11%
Steve Swenson
4%
Undecided
44%
397 (RV)
397 (RV)
Poll source
397 (RV)
Date(s) administered
–
Sample size
29%
Margin of error
5%
Cal Cunningham
1%
Trevor Fuller
10%
Atul Goel
5%
Erica Smith
50%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
February 4–5, 2020
Sample size
604 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Cal Cunningham
29%
Trevor Fuller
3%
Atul Goel
2%
Erica Smith
10%
Steve Swenson
4%
Undecided
52%
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling
Poll source
Public Policy Polling
Date(s) administered
January 10–12, 2020
Sample size
509 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Cal Cunningham
22%
Trevor Fuller
2%
Atul Goel
3%
Erica Smith
12%
Steve Swenson
1%
Undecided
60%
FOX News
FOX News
Poll source
FOX News
Date(s) administered
November 10–13, 2019
Sample size
669 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Cal Cunningham
13%
Trevor Fuller
10%
Atul Goel
–
Erica Smith
18%
Steve Swenson
–
Undecided
49%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Cal Cunningham
Trevor Fuller
Atul Goel
Erica Smith
Steve Swenson
Undecided
High Point University
February 21–28, 2020
274 (LV)
–
50%
4%
1%
24%
3%
18%
474 (RV)
–
42%
5%
1%
24%
4%
4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
February 26–27, 2020
587 (LV)
± 4 %
45%
2%
1%
23%
1%
28%
NBC News/Marist
February 23–27, 2020
568 (LV)
± 5 %
51%
3%
1%
18%
2%
25%
Public Policy Polling
February 23–24, 2020
852 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
4%
1%
18%
2%
30%
Meredith College
February 16–24, 2020
429 (LV)
± 3 %
43%
2%
1%
14%
2%
36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies
February 21–23, 2020
553 (LV)
± 3 %
48%
1%
0%
21%
1%
29%
SurveyUSA
February 13–16, 2020
698 (LV)
± 4 %
42%
3%
1%
17%
3%
34%
High Point University
January 31 – February 6, 2020
224 (LV)
–
37%
4%
0%
11%
4%
44%
397 (RV)
–
29%
5%
1%
10%
5%
50%
Public Policy Polling
February 4–5, 2020
604 (LV)
–
29%
3%
2%
10%
4%
52%
Public Policy Polling
January 10–12, 2020
509 (LV)
–
22%
2%
3%
12%
1%
60%
FOX News
November 10–13, 2019
669 (RV)
± 4 %
13%
10%
–
18%
–
49%

References

  1. Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
  3. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  4. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. Poll sponsored by The American Greatness PAC, which is pro-Trump.
  6. Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  7. Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  8. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. This poll's sponsor had endorsed Cunningham prior to the sampling period
  10. This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  11. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  13. Poll sponsored by private client
  14. Internal poll
  15. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
  16. Poll sponsored by VoteVets
  17. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  18. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  19. Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
  20. Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
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