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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Updated: Wikipedia source

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate majority leader since 2015 and had represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U . Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron. The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early; this figure was far greater than usual. Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.

Infobox

Turnout
59 %
Nominee
Mitch McConnell
Party
Republican
Popular vote
1,233,315
Percentage
57 %

Tables

Republican primary results · Republican primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
413,820
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Republican
Mitch McConnell (incumbent)
342,660
82 %
Republican
C. Wesley Morgan
25,588
6 %
Republican
Louis Grider
13,771
3 %
Republican
Paul John Frangedakis
11,957
2 %
Republican
Neren James
10,693
2 %
Republican
Kenneth Lowndes
5,548
1 %
Republican
Nicholas Alsager
3,603
0 %
Total votes
413,820
100 %
· Democratic primary › Campaign › Polling
Data for Progress
Data for Progress
Poll source
Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
June 10–22, 2020
Sample size
556 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Charles Booker
43%
Amy McGrath
46%
Other
–
Undecided
10%
Garin-Hart-Yang
Garin-Hart-Yang
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang
Date(s) administered
June 16–18, 2020
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Charles Booker
32%
Amy McGrath
42%
Other
–
Undecided
–
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Poll source
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
June 13–15, 2020
Sample size
421 (LV)
Margin of error
± 5 %
Charles Booker
44%
Amy McGrath
36%
Other
9%
Undecided
11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Poll source
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Date(s) administered
June 8–12, 2020
Sample size
313 (RV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Charles Booker
39%
Amy McGrath
49%
Other
6%
Undecided
3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Poll source
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Date(s) administered
May 2020
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Charles Booker
13%
Amy McGrath
62%
Other
–
Undecided
–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Poll source
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Date(s) administered
April 2020
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Charles Booker
11%
Amy McGrath
62%
Other
–
Undecided
–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Poll source
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
Date(s) administered
January 2020
Sample size
–
Margin of error
–
Charles Booker
7%
Amy McGrath
65%
Other
–
Undecided
–
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Charles Booker
Amy McGrath
Other
Undecided
Data for Progress
June 10–22, 2020
556 (LV)
–
43%
46%
–
10%
Garin-Hart-Yang
June 16–18, 2020
–
–
32%
42%
–
–
Civiqs/Data for Progress
June 13–15, 2020
421 (LV)
± 5 %
44%
36%
9%
11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
June 8–12, 2020
313 (RV)
± 7 %
39%
49%
6%
3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
May 2020
–
–
13%
62%
–
–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
April 2020
–
–
11%
62%
–
–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications
January 2020
–
–
7%
65%
–
–
Democratic primary results · Democratic primary › Results
Total votes
Total votes
Party
Total votes
Party
544,062
Candidate
100 %
Party
Candidate
Votes
%
Democratic
Amy McGrath
247,037
45 %
Democratic
Charles Booker
231,888
42 %
Democratic
Mike Broihier
27,175
4 %
Democratic
Mary Ann Tobin
11,108
2 %
Democratic
Maggie Joe Hilliard
6,224
1 %
Democratic
Andrew Maynard
5,974
1 %
Democratic
Bennie J. Smith
5,040
0 %
Democratic
Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn)
3,629
0 %
Democratic
Eric Rothmuller
2,995
0 %
Democratic
John R. Sharpensteen
2,992
0 %
Total votes
544,062
100 %
· General election › Predictions
Likely R
Likely R
Source
The Cook Political Report
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 29, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Inside Elections
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 28, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 2, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
Daily Kos
Ranking
Safe R
As of
October 30, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Politico
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 2, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
RCP
Ranking
Likely R
As of
October 23, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
DDHQ
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 3, 2020
Safe R
Safe R
Source
538
Ranking
Safe R
As of
November 2, 2020
Likely R
Likely R
Source
Economist
Ranking
Likely R
As of
November 2, 2020
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
October 29, 2020
Inside Elections
Safe R
October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
November 2, 2020
Daily Kos
Safe R
October 30, 2020
Politico
Likely R
November 2, 2020
RCP
Likely R
October 23, 2020
DDHQ
Safe R
November 3, 2020
538
Safe R
November 2, 2020
Economist
Likely R
November 2, 2020
· General election › Polling › Polls
Swayable
Swayable
Poll source
Swayable
Date(s) administered
October 23 – November 1, 2020
Sample size
365 (LV)
Margin of error
± 7 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
49%
Amy McGrath (D)
46%
Brad Barron (L)
5%
Other / Undecided
–
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
October 22–31, 2020
Sample size
911 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3%
Mitch McConnell (R)
51%
Amy McGrath (D)
40%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
–
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Poll source
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
Date(s) administered
October 12–28, 2020
Sample size
250 (RV)
Margin of error
–
Mitch McConnell (R)
50%
Amy McGrath (D)
40%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
10%
Cygnal
Cygnal
Poll source
Cygnal
Date(s) administered
October 19–20, 2020
Sample size
640 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
50%
Amy McGrath (D)
40%
Brad Barron (L)
5%
Other / Undecided
5%
Mason-Dixon
Mason-Dixon
Poll source
Mason-Dixon
Date(s) administered
October 12–15, 2020
Sample size
625 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4%
Mitch McConnell (R)
51%
Amy McGrath (D)
42%
Brad Barron (L)
4%
Other / Undecided
3%
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
September 11–20, 2020
Sample size
746 (LV)
Margin of error
± (2% – 7%)
Mitch McConnell (R)
52%
Amy McGrath (D)
37%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
–
Data for Progress (D)
Data for Progress (D)
Poll source
Data for Progress (D)
Date(s) administered
September 14–19, 2020
Sample size
807 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
46%
Amy McGrath (D)
39%
Brad Barron (L)
3%
Other / Undecided
12%
48%
48%
Poll source
48%
Date(s) administered
41%
Sample size
–
Margin of error
11%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
September 10–14, 2020
Sample size
1,164 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
53%
Amy McGrath (D)
41%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
5%
Quinnipiac University
Quinnipiac University
Poll source
Quinnipiac University
Date(s) administered
July 30 – August 3, 2020
Sample size
909 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
49%
Amy McGrath (D)
44%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
7%
Bluegrass Data (D)
Bluegrass Data (D)
Poll source
Bluegrass Data (D)
Date(s) administered
July 25–29, 2020
Sample size
3,020 (RV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
49%
Amy McGrath (D)
46%
Brad Barron (L)
4%
Other / Undecided
–
Morning Consult
Morning Consult
Poll source
Morning Consult
Date(s) administered
July 24 – August 2, 2020
Sample size
793 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
53%
Amy McGrath (D)
36%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
12%
Spry Strategies (R)
Spry Strategies (R)
Poll source
Spry Strategies (R)
Date(s) administered
July 11–16, 2020
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
55%
Amy McGrath (D)
33%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
12%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Date(s) administered
July 7–12, 2020
Sample size
800 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
45%
Amy McGrath (D)
41%
Brad Barron (L)
7%
Other / Undecided
7%
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Poll source
Civiqs/Data for Progress
Date(s) administered
June 13–15, 2020
Sample size
898 (RV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
53%
Amy McGrath (D)
33%
Brad Barron (L)
4%
Other / Undecided
11%
RMG Research
RMG Research
Poll source
RMG Research
Date(s) administered
May 21–24, 2020
Sample size
500 (RV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
40%
Amy McGrath (D)
41%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
19%
Bluegrass Data (D)
Bluegrass Data (D)
Poll source
Bluegrass Data (D)
Date(s) administered
April 7–12, 2020
Sample size
4,000 (RV)
Margin of error
–
Mitch McConnell (R)
40%
Amy McGrath (D)
38%
Brad Barron (L)
7%
Other / Undecided
–
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
January 17–21, 2020
Sample size
1,281 (LV)
Margin of error
± 2 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
41%
Amy McGrath (D)
41%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Poll source
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Date(s) administered
January 8–13, 2020
Sample size
802 (LV)
Margin of error
± 3 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
43%
Amy McGrath (D)
40%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
17%
Fabrizio Ward
Fabrizio Ward
Poll source
Fabrizio Ward
Date(s) administered
July 29–31, 2019
Sample size
600 (LV)
Margin of error
± 4 %
Mitch McConnell (R)
47%
Amy McGrath (D)
46%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
6%
Change Research (D)
Change Research (D)
Poll source
Change Research (D)
Date(s) administered
June 15–16, 2019
Sample size
1,629 (LV)
Margin of error
–
Mitch McConnell (R)
47%
Amy McGrath (D)
45%
Brad Barron (L)
–
Other / Undecided
8%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mitch McConnell (R)
Amy McGrath (D)
Brad Barron (L)
Other / Undecided
Swayable
October 23 – November 1, 2020
365 (LV)
± 7 %
49%
46%
5%
–
Morning Consult
October 22–31, 2020
911 (LV)
± 3%
51%
40%
–
–
Bluegrass Community & Technical College
October 12–28, 2020
250 (RV)
–
50%
40%
–
10%
Cygnal
October 19–20, 2020
640 (LV)
± 3 %
50%
40%
5%
5%
Mason-Dixon
October 12–15, 2020
625 (LV)
± 4%
51%
42%
4%
3%
Morning Consult
September 11–20, 2020
746 (LV)
± (2% – 7%)
52%
37%
–
–
Data for Progress (D)
September 14–19, 2020
807 (LV)
± 3 %
46%
39%
3%
12%
48%
41%
–
11%
Quinnipiac University
September 10–14, 2020
1,164 (LV)
± 2 %
53%
41%
–
5%
Quinnipiac University
July 30 – August 3, 2020
909 (RV)
± 3 %
49%
44%
–
7%
Bluegrass Data (D)
July 25–29, 2020
3,020 (RV)
± 2 %
49%
46%
4%
–
Morning Consult
July 24 – August 2, 2020
793 (LV)
± 3 %
53%
36%
–
12%
Spry Strategies (R)
July 11–16, 2020
600 (LV)
± 3 %
55%
33%
–
12%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
July 7–12, 2020
800 (LV)
± 3 %
45%
41%
7%
7%
Civiqs/Data for Progress
June 13–15, 2020
898 (RV)
± 3 %
53%
33%
4%
11%
RMG Research
May 21–24, 2020
500 (RV)
± 4 %
40%
41%
–
19%
Bluegrass Data (D)
April 7–12, 2020
4,000 (RV)
–
40%
38%
7%
–
Change Research (D)
January 17–21, 2020
1,281 (LV)
± 2 %
41%
41%
–
18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
January 8–13, 2020
802 (LV)
± 3 %
43%
40%
–
17%
Fabrizio Ward
July 29–31, 2019
600 (LV)
± 4 %
47%
46%
–
6%
Change Research (D)
June 15–16, 2019
1,629 (LV)
–
47%
45%
–
8%

References

  1. Poll released after the primary in July
  2. Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. Poll sponsored by U . Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  7. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  8. Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
  11. Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
  12. Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  13. Not yet released
  14. Undecided with 10%
  15. Undecided with 5%
  16. Undecided with 3%
  17. Standard VI response
  18. Undecided with 12%
  19. If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
  20. Undecided with 11%
Image
Source: —
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