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2018 United States Senate elections

Updated: Wikipedia source

2018 United States Senate elections

The 2018 United States Senate elections were held on November 6, 2018. Among the 100 seats, the 33 of Class 1 were contested in regular elections while two others were contested in special elections due to Senate vacancies in Minnesota and Mississippi. The regular election winners were elected to six-year terms running from January 3, 2019, to January 3, 2025. Senate Democrats had 26 seats up for election (including the seats of two Independents who caucus with them), while Senate Republicans had nine seats up for election. To maintain their working majority of 50 senators and their party's vice president's tie-breaking vote, Republicans could only afford a net loss of one seat in these elections. The Republicans had a 52–48 majority after the 2016 elections, but they lost a seat in Alabama after Jeff Sessions resigned to become U . attorney general and Doug Jones, a Democrat, won in the subsequent special election. Three Republican-held seats were open as a result of retirements in Tennessee, Utah, and Arizona. Although every Democratic incumbent ran for re-election, Democrats faced an extremely unfavorable map, defending 26 seats, of which 10 were in states won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, in five states by more than 10%. Republicans, meanwhile, only had to defend nine seats, of which only one was in a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. The Republicans increased their majority by defeating Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, and holding the open seats in Tennessee and Utah. Democrats captured two Republican-held seats, defeating an incumbent in Nevada and winning the open seat in Arizona. This marked the first time that Republicans gained Class 1 Senate seats since 1994. To date, this remains the last time that Democrats won a Senate election in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. The results for this election cycle were the only significant net gains made by the Republicans in what was otherwise characterized as a "blue wave" election. The Republican gains in the Senate and the Democratic gains in the House marked the first midterm election cycle since 1970 in which the president's party made net gains in one chamber of Congress while suffering net losses in the other, which also occurred in 1914, 1962, and 2022. This was also the first midterm election cycle since 2002 in which any incumbents of the non-presidential party lost re-election. The number of defeated non-presidential party incumbents (four) was the most since 1934.

Infobox

Leader
Mitch McConnell
Party
Independent
Leader since
January 3, 2007
Leader's seat
Kentucky
Seats before
2
Seats after
2
Seat change
2
Popular vote
808,370
Percentage
0 %
Seats up
2
Races won
2

Tables

· Results summary
Democratic
Democratic
Parties
Democratic
Parties
Republican
Parties
Independent
Col 4
Libertarian
Col 5
Green
Col 6
Other
Last elections (2016)
Last elections (2016)
Parties
Last elections (2016)
Parties
46
Parties
52
Col 4
2
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
100
Before these elections
Before these elections
Parties
Before these elections
Parties
47
Parties
51
Col 4
2
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
100
Not up
Not up
Parties
Not up
Parties
23
Parties
42
Col 4
0
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
65
Class 3 (2016→2022)
Class 3 (2016→2022)
Parties
Class 3 (2016→2022)
Parties
12
Parties
22
Col 4
0
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
34
Up
Up
Parties
Up
Parties
24
Parties
9
Col 4
2
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
35
Special: Class 2
Special: Class 2
Parties
Special: Class 2
Parties
1
Parties
1
Col 4
0
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
2
Regular elections
Regular elections
Parties
Regular elections
Incumbent retired
Incumbent retired
Parties
Incumbent retired
Parties
0
Parties
3
Col 4
0
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
3
Replaced by other party
Replaced by other party
Parties
Replaced by other party
Parties
1 Republican replaced by 1 Democrat
Parties
Col 4
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
1
Result
Result
Parties
Result
Parties
1
Parties
2
Col 4
0
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
3
Incumbent ran
Incumbent ran
Parties
Incumbent ran
Parties
23
Parties
5
Col 4
2
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
30
Lost re-election
Lost re-election
Parties
Lost re-election
Parties
1 Republican replaced by 1 Democrat 4 Democrats replaced by 4 Republicans
Parties
Col 4
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
5
Result
Result
Parties
Result
Parties
20
Parties
8
Col 4
2
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
30
Special elections
Special elections
Parties
Special elections
Appointee ran
Appointee ran
Parties
Appointee ran
Parties
1
Parties
1
Col 4
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
2
Result
Result
Parties
Result
Parties
1
Parties
1
Col 4
0
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
2
Total elected
Total elected
Parties
Total elected
Parties
22
Parties
11
Col 4
2
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
35
Net gain/loss
Net gain/loss
Parties
Net gain/loss
Parties
2
Parties
2
Col 4
Col 5
Col 6
Col 7
Col 8
2
Nationwide vote
Nationwide vote
Parties
Nationwide vote
Parties
52,224,867
Parties
34,722,926
Col 4
808,370
Col 5
590,051
Col 6
200,599
Col 7
1,262,765
Col 8
90,473,222
Result
Result
Parties
Result
Parties
45
Parties
53
Col 4
2
Col 5
0
Col 6
0
Col 7
0
Col 8
100
Parties
Total
Democratic
Republican
Independent
Libertarian
Green
Other
Last elections (2016)
46
52
2
0
0
0
100
Before these elections
47
51
2
0
0
0
100
Not up
23
42
0
65
Class 2 (2014→2020)
11
20
0
31
Class 3 (2016→2022)
12
22
0
34
Up
24
9
2
35
Class 1 (2012→2018)
23
8
2
33
Special: Class 2
1
1
0
2
Regular elections
Incumbent retired
0
3
0
3
Held by same party
2
2
Replaced by other party
1 Republican replaced by 1 Democrat
1
Result
1
2
0
0
0
0
3
Incumbent ran
23
5
2
30
Won re-election
19
4
2
25
Lost re-election
1 Republican replaced by 1 Democrat 4 Democrats replaced by 4 Republicans
5
Result
20
8
2
0
0
0
30
Special elections
Appointee ran
1
1
2
Appointee elected
1
1
2
Result
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
Total elected
22
11
2
0
0
0
35
Net gain/loss
2
2
2
Nationwide vote
52,224,867
34,722,926
808,370
590,051
200,599
1,262,765
90,473,222
Share
58 %
38 %
0 %
0 %
0 %
1 %
100%
Result
45
53
2
0
0
0
100
· Change in composition › Before the elections
D20
D20
D1 Ala. Gain
D20
D2
D19
D3
D18
D4
D17
D5
D16
D6
D15
D7
D14
D8
D13
D9
D12
D10
D11
D21
D21
D1 Ala. Gain
D21
D2
D22
D3
D23
D4
D24 Calif. Ran
D5
D25 Conn. Ran
D6
D26 Del. Ran
D7
D27 Fla. Ran
D8
D28 Hawaii Ran
D9
D29 Ind. Ran
D10
D30 Md. Ran
D40 N . Ran
D40 N . Ran
D1 Ala. Gain
D40 N . Ran
D2
D39 N . Ran
D3
D38 N . Ran
D4
D37 N . Ran
D5
D36 Mont. Ran
D6
D35 Mo. Ran
D7
D34 Minn. (sp) Ran
D8
D33 Minn. (reg) Ran
D9
D32 Mich. Ran
D10
D31 Mass. Ran
D41 Ohio Ran
D41 Ohio Ran
D1 Ala. Gain
D41 Ohio Ran
D2
D42 Penn. Ran
D3
D43 R . Ran
D4
D44 Va. Ran
D5
D45 Wash. Ran
D6
D46 W . Ran
D7
D47 Wis. Ran
D8
I1 Maine Ran
D9
I2 Vt. Ran
D10
R51 Utah Retired
Majority →
Majority →
D1 Ala. Gain
Majority →
R41
R41
D1 Ala. Gain
R41
D2
R42
D3
R43 Miss. (reg) Ran
D4
R44 Miss. (sp) Ran
D5
R45 Neb. Ran
D6
R46 Nev. Ran
D7
R47 Texas Ran
D8
R48 Wyo. Ran
D9
R49 Ariz. Retired
D10
R50 Tenn. Retired
R40
R40
D1 Ala. Gain
R40
D2
R39
D3
R38
D4
R37
D5
R36
D6
R35
D7
R34
D8
R33
D9
R32
D10
R31
R21
R21
D1 Ala. Gain
R21
D2
R22
D3
R23
D4
R24
D5
R25
D6
R26
D7
R27
D8
R28
D9
R29
D10
R30
R20
R20
D1 Ala. Gain
R20
D2
R19
D3
R18
D4
R17
D5
R16
D6
R15
D7
R14
D8
R13
D9
R12
D10
R11
R1
R1
D1 Ala. Gain
R1
D2
R2
D3
R3
D4
R4
D5
R5
D6
R6
D7
R7
D8
R8
D9
R9
D10
R10
D1 Ala. Gain
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D20
D19
D18
D17
D16
D15
D14
D13
D12
D11
D21
D22
D23
D24 Calif. Ran
D25 Conn. Ran
D26 Del. Ran
D27 Fla. Ran
D28 Hawaii Ran
D29 Ind. Ran
D30 Md. Ran
D40 N . Ran
D39 N . Ran
D38 N . Ran
D37 N . Ran
D36 Mont. Ran
D35 Mo. Ran
D34 Minn. (sp) Ran
D33 Minn. (reg) Ran
D32 Mich. Ran
D31 Mass. Ran
D41 Ohio Ran
D42 Penn. Ran
D43 R . Ran
D44 Va. Ran
D45 Wash. Ran
D46 W . Ran
D47 Wis. Ran
I1 Maine Ran
I2 Vt. Ran
R51 Utah Retired
Majority →
R41
R42
R43 Miss. (reg) Ran
R44 Miss. (sp) Ran
R45 Neb. Ran
R46 Nev. Ran
R47 Texas Ran
R48 Wyo. Ran
R49 Ariz. Retired
R50 Tenn. Retired
R40
R39
R38
R37
R36
R35
R34
R33
R32
R31
R21
R22
R23
R24
R25
R26
R27
R28
R29
R30
R20
R19
R18
R17
R16
R15
R14
R13
R12
R11
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
· Change in composition › After the elections
D20
D20
D1
D20
D2
D19
D3
D18
D4
D17
D5
D16
D6
D15
D7
D14
D8
D13
D9
D12
D10
D11
D21
D21
D1
D21
D2
D22
D3
D23
D4
D24 Calif. Re-elected
D5
D25 Conn. Re-elected
D6
D26 Del. Re-elected
D7
D27 Hawaii Re-elected
D8
D28 Md. Re-elected
D9
D29 Mass. Re-elected
D10
D30 Mich. Re-elected
D40 Va. Re-elected
D40 Va. Re-elected
D1
D40 Va. Re-elected
D2
D39 R . Re-elected
D3
D38 Pa. Re-elected
D4
D37 Ohio Re-elected
D5
D36 N . Re-elected
D6
D35 N . Re-elected
D7
D34 N . Re-elected
D8
D33 Mont. Re-elected
D9
D32 Minn. (sp) Elected
D10
D31 Minn. (reg) Re-elected
D41 Wash. Re-elected
D41 Wash. Re-elected
D1
D41 Wash. Re-elected
D2
D42 W . Re-elected
D3
D43 Wis. Re-elected
D4
D44 Ariz. Gain
D5
D45 Nev. Gain
D6
I1 Maine Re-elected
D7
I2 Vt. Re-elected
D8
R53 N . Gain
D9
R52 Mo. Gain
D10
R51 Ind. Gain
Majority →
Majority →
D1
Majority →
R41
R41
D1
R41
D2
R42
D3
R43 Miss. (reg) Re-elected
D4
R44 Miss. (sp) Elected
D5
R45 Neb. Re-elected
D6
R46 Tenn. Hold
D7
R47 Tex. Re-elected
D8
R48 Utah Hold
D9
R49 Wyo. Re-elected
D10
R50 Fla. Gain
R40
R40
D1
R40
D2
R39
D3
R38
D4
R37
D5
R36
D6
R35
D7
R34
D8
R33
D9
R32
D10
R31
R21
R21
D1
R21
D2
R22
D3
R23
D4
R24
D5
R25
D6
R26
D7
R27
D8
R28
D9
R29
D10
R30
R20
R20
D1
R20
D2
R19
D3
R18
D4
R17
D5
R16
D6
R15
D7
R14
D8
R13
D9
R12
D10
R11
R1
R1
D1
R1
D2
R2
D3
R3
D4
R4
D5
R5
D6
R6
D7
R7
D8
R8
D9
R9
D10
R10
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D20
D19
D18
D17
D16
D15
D14
D13
D12
D11
D21
D22
D23
D24 Calif. Re-elected
D25 Conn. Re-elected
D26 Del. Re-elected
D27 Hawaii Re-elected
D28 Md. Re-elected
D29 Mass. Re-elected
D30 Mich. Re-elected
D40 Va. Re-elected
D39 R . Re-elected
D38 Pa. Re-elected
D37 Ohio Re-elected
D36 N . Re-elected
D35 N . Re-elected
D34 N . Re-elected
D33 Mont. Re-elected
D32 Minn. (sp) Elected
D31 Minn. (reg) Re-elected
D41 Wash. Re-elected
D42 W . Re-elected
D43 Wis. Re-elected
D44 Ariz. Gain
D45 Nev. Gain
I1 Maine Re-elected
I2 Vt. Re-elected
R53 N . Gain
R52 Mo. Gain
R51 Ind. Gain
Majority →
R41
R42
R43 Miss. (reg) Re-elected
R44 Miss. (sp) Elected
R45 Neb. Re-elected
R46 Tenn. Hold
R47 Tex. Re-elected
R48 Utah Hold
R49 Wyo. Re-elected
R50 Fla. Gain
R40
R39
R38
R37
R36
R35
R34
R33
R32
R31
R21
R22
R23
R24
R25
R26
R27
R28
R29
R30
R20
R19
R18
R17
R16
R15
R14
R13
R12
R11
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
R#
R#
D#
R#
Democratic
Republican
I#
I#
D#
I#
Democratic
Independent, caucusing with Democrats
D#
Democratic
R#
Republican
I#
Independent, caucusing with Democrats
· Predictions
State
State
Constituency
State
Constituency
PVI
Incumbent
Senator
Incumbent
Last election
2018 election ratings
Cook Oct 26, 2018
2018 election ratings
IE Nov 1, 2018
2018 election ratings
Sabato Nov 5, 2018
2018 election ratings
NYT Nov 5, 2018
2018 election ratings
Fox News Nov 5, 2018
2018 election ratings
CNN Nov 2, 2018
2018 election ratings
RCP Nov 5, 2018
2018 election ratings
Daily Kos Nov 5, 2018
Arizona
Arizona
Constituency
Arizona
Constituency
R+5
Incumbent
Jeff Flake (retiring)
Incumbent
49 % R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tilt D (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean D (flip)
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
California
California
Constituency
California
Constituency
D+12
Incumbent
Dianne Feinstein
Incumbent
62 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Connecticut
Connecticut
Constituency
Connecticut
Constituency
D+6
Incumbent
Chris Murphy
Incumbent
54 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Delaware
Delaware
Constituency
Delaware
Constituency
D+6
Incumbent
Tom Carper
Incumbent
66 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Florida
Florida
Constituency
Florida
Constituency
R+2
Incumbent
Bill Nelson
Incumbent
55 % D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tilt D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
Hawaii
Hawaii
Constituency
Hawaii
Constituency
D+18
Incumbent
Mazie Hirono
Incumbent
62 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Indiana
Indiana
Constituency
Indiana
Constituency
R+9
Incumbent
Joe Donnelly
Incumbent
50 % D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
Maine
Maine
Constituency
Maine
Constituency
D+3
Incumbent
Angus King
Incumbent
52 % I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Likely I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
Maryland
Maryland
Constituency
Maryland
Constituency
D+12
Incumbent
Ben Cardin
Incumbent
56 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
Constituency
Massachusetts
Constituency
D+12
Incumbent
Elizabeth Warren
Incumbent
53 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Michigan
Michigan
Constituency
Michigan
Constituency
D+1
Incumbent
Debbie Stabenow
Incumbent
58 % D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Minnesota (regular)
Minnesota (regular)
Constituency
Minnesota (regular)
Constituency
D+1
Incumbent
Amy Klobuchar
Incumbent
65 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Minnesota (special)
Minnesota (special)
Constituency
Minnesota (special)
Constituency
D+1
Incumbent
Tina Smith
Incumbent
Appointed (2018)
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
Mississippi (regular)
Mississippi (regular)
Constituency
Mississippi (regular)
Constituency
R+9
Incumbent
Roger Wicker
Incumbent
57 % R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
Mississippi (special)
Mississippi (special)
Constituency
Mississippi (special)
Constituency
R+9
Incumbent
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Incumbent
Appointed (2018)
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
Missouri
Missouri
Constituency
Missouri
Constituency
R+9
Incumbent
Claire McCaskill
Incumbent
54 % D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tilt R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
Montana
Montana
Constituency
Montana
Constituency
R+11
Incumbent
Jon Tester
Incumbent
48 % D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tilt D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
Nebraska
Nebraska
Constituency
Nebraska
Constituency
R+14
Incumbent
Deb Fischer
Incumbent
57 % R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
Nevada
Nevada
Constituency
Nevada
Constituency
D+1
Incumbent
Dean Heller
Incumbent
45 % R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tilt D (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean D (flip)
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
New Jersey
New Jersey
Constituency
New Jersey
Constituency
D+7
Incumbent
Bob Menendez
Incumbent
58 % D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
New Mexico
New Mexico
Constituency
New Mexico
Constituency
D+3
Incumbent
Martin Heinrich
Incumbent
51 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
New York
New York
Constituency
New York
Constituency
D+11
Incumbent
Kirsten Gillibrand
Incumbent
72 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
North Dakota
North Dakota
Constituency
North Dakota
Constituency
R+16
Incumbent
Heidi Heitkamp
Incumbent
50 % D
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Likely R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
2018 election ratings
Lean R (flip)
Ohio
Ohio
Constituency
Ohio
Constituency
R+3
Incumbent
Sherrod Brown
Incumbent
50 % D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Constituency
Pennsylvania
Constituency
EVEN
Incumbent
Bob Casey Jr.
Incumbent
53 % D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Constituency
Rhode Island
Constituency
D+10
Incumbent
Sheldon Whitehouse
Incumbent
64 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Tennessee
Tennessee
Constituency
Tennessee
Constituency
R+14
Incumbent
Bob Corker (retiring)
Incumbent
64 % R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean R
Texas
Texas
Constituency
Texas
Constituency
R+8
Incumbent
Ted Cruz
Incumbent
56 % R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
2018 election ratings
Lean R
Utah
Utah
Constituency
Utah
Constituency
R+20
Incumbent
Orrin Hatch (retiring)
Incumbent
65 % R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
Vermont
Vermont
Constituency
Vermont
Constituency
D+15
Incumbent
Bernie Sanders
Incumbent
71 % I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Likely I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
2018 election ratings
Safe I
Virginia
Virginia
Constituency
Virginia
Constituency
D+1
Incumbent
Tim Kaine
Incumbent
52 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
Washington
Washington
Constituency
Washington
Constituency
D+7
Incumbent
Maria Cantwell
Incumbent
60 % D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
West Virginia
West Virginia
Constituency
West Virginia
Constituency
R+20
Incumbent
Joe Manchin
Incumbent
60 % D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Tilt D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Tossup
2018 election ratings
Lean D
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Constituency
Wisconsin
Constituency
EVEN
Incumbent
Tammy Baldwin
Incumbent
51 % D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Safe D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
2018 election ratings
Lean D
2018 election ratings
Likely D
Wyoming
Wyoming
Constituency
Wyoming
Constituency
R+25
Incumbent
John Barrasso
Incumbent
75 % R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Likely R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
2018 election ratings
Safe R
Overall
Overall
Constituency
Overall
Constituency
D - 43 R - 48 9 tossups
Incumbent
D - 48 R - 51 1 tossup
Incumbent
D - 48 R - 52 0 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 43 R - 48 9 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 45 R - 50 5 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 45 R - 49 6 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 43 R - 49 8 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 44 R - 50 6 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 45 R - 50 5 tossups
2018 election ratings
D - 48 R - 50 2 tossups
2018 election ratings
Results: D - 47 R - 53
Constituency
Incumbent
2018 election ratings
State
PVI
Senator
Last election
Cook Oct 26, 2018
IE Nov 1, 2018
Sabato Nov 5, 2018
NYT Nov 5, 2018
Fox News Nov 5, 2018
CNN Nov 2, 2018
RCP Nov 5, 2018
Daily Kos Nov 5, 2018
Arizona
R+5
Jeff Flake (retiring)
49 % R
Tossup
Tilt D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
California
D+12
Dianne Feinstein
62 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Connecticut
D+6
Chris Murphy
54 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Delaware
D+6
Tom Carper
66 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Florida
R+2
Bill Nelson
55 % D
Tossup
Tilt D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Hawaii
D+18
Mazie Hirono
62 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Indiana
R+9
Joe Donnelly
50 % D
Tossup
Tossup
Lean R (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Maine
D+3
Angus King
52 % I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Likely I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Maryland
D+12
Ben Cardin
56 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Massachusetts
D+12
Elizabeth Warren
53 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Michigan
D+1
Debbie Stabenow
58 % D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Safe D
Minnesota (regular)
D+1
Amy Klobuchar
65 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Minnesota (special)
D+1
Tina Smith
Appointed (2018)
Lean D
Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Mississippi (regular)
R+9
Roger Wicker
57 % R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Mississippi (special)
R+9
Cindy Hyde-Smith
Appointed (2018)
Lean R
Safe R
Likely R
Lean R
Lean R
Safe R
Likely R
Likely R
Missouri
R+9
Claire McCaskill
54 % D
Tossup
Tilt R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Montana
R+11
Jon Tester
48 % D
Tossup
Tilt D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean D
Lean D
Tossup
Tossup
Nebraska
R+14
Deb Fischer
57 % R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Nevada
D+1
Dean Heller
45 % R
Tossup
Tilt D (flip)
Lean D (flip)
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
New Jersey
D+7
Bob Menendez
58 % D
Tossup
Likely D
Likely D
Tossup
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
New Mexico
D+3
Martin Heinrich
51 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
New York
D+11
Kirsten Gillibrand
72 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
North Dakota
R+16
Heidi Heitkamp
50 % D
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Likely R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Lean R (flip)
Ohio
R+3
Sherrod Brown
50 % D
Likely D
Safe D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Pennsylvania
EVEN
Bob Casey Jr.
53 % D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Safe D
Rhode Island
D+10
Sheldon Whitehouse
64 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Tennessee
R+14
Bob Corker (retiring)
64 % R
Tossup
Lean R
Lean R
Tossup
Lean R
Tossup
Tossup
Lean R
Texas
R+8
Ted Cruz
56 % R
Tossup
Likely R
Lean R
Tossup
Lean R
Lean R
Lean R
Lean R
Utah
R+20
Orrin Hatch (retiring)
65 % R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Vermont
D+15
Bernie Sanders
71 % I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Likely I
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Virginia
D+1
Tim Kaine
52 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Washington
D+7
Maria Cantwell
60 % D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
West Virginia
R+20
Joe Manchin
60 % D
Lean D
Tilt D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean D
Wisconsin
EVEN
Tammy Baldwin
51 % D
Likely D
Safe D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Likely D
Lean D
Likely D
Wyoming
R+25
John Barrasso
75 % R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Overall
D - 43 R - 48 9 tossups
D - 48 R - 51 1 tossup
D - 48 R - 52 0 tossups
D - 43 R - 48 9 tossups
D - 45 R - 50 5 tossups
D - 45 R - 49 6 tossups
D - 43 R - 49 8 tossups
D - 44 R - 50 6 tossups
D - 45 R - 50 5 tossups
D - 48 R - 50 2 tossups
Results: D - 47 R - 53

References

  1. 33 Class 1 seats, as well as 2 Class 2 seats in special election
  2. Total of official results for Democratic candidates.
  3. Both general election candidates in California were members of the Democratic Party, having won the top 2 positions in t
  4. Both independent senators — Angus King and Bernie Sanders — have caucused with the Democratic Party since joining the Se
  5. Total of official results for candidates labeled "Independent".
  6. Appointee elected
  7. The last elections for this group of senators were in 2012, except for those who were appointed after the resignation or
  8. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
  9. Reflects the classic version of the forecast model.
  10. Democrat Al Franken won with 53 % of the vote in 2014, but resigned on January 2, 2018.
  11. Special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan, therefore party affiliation is not listed on the ballot.
  12. Republican Thad Cochran won with 59 % of the vote in 2014, but resigned on April 1, 2018 due to declining health.
  13. Democratic total includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats
  14. Mississippi held a run-off for the special election on November 27, 2018 because no candidate won a majority of the vote
  15. Appointed to the seat following the resignation of John Ensign.
  16. Indiana was the "tipping point" state.
  17. Under California's "jungle primary" system, the general election was between two Democrats.
  18. Clerk of the U . House of Representatives
    http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electioninfo/2018election.pdf
  19. The Washington Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/07/some-democrats-are-complaining-about-senate-popular-vote-its-still-not-thing
  20. The Washington Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/stark-political-divide-points-to-a-split-decision-in-midterm-elections/2018/10/12/d98bbc60-c686-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html
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